World Politics Review published on 13 July 2026 an article titled "Sudan Could Be Headed for De Facto Partition" by Mohamed Wad Al-Sak.
If the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces take control of El Obeid in central Sudan from the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), it could result in a de facto partition of the country. El Obed is the SAF's last command center in central Sudan and the linchpin of its western supply corridor.
The International Crisis Group published on 13 April 2026 an analysis titled "Divided Sudan, Elusive Peace."
Negotiations aimed at a cease fire in Sudan appear stalled amid a row between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and the distraction of the war in Iran. The Sudan civil war risks becoming a regional conflict. This is the occasion, however, for the Quad (US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) to step up efforts to revive the peace process.
Foreign Affairs published on 8 April 2026 an article titled "Don't Partition Sudan Again: Splitting It Didn't Work in the Past and Won't Work Now" by Francis M. Deng and Ahmed Kodouda.
Both the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) insist they are fighting to preserve a unified Sudan, but the longer the current geographical division persists, the harder it will be to put the country together again.
The 2011 independence of South Sudan offers a cautionary tale. Any effort to formalize the split between the SAF and RSF-controlled parts of Sudan would not resolve the conflict's root causes. Another partition of Sudan would also destabilize its neighbors.
The International Crisis Group posted on 25 April 2025 a 25-minute podcast titled "Any Hope Left for Diplomacy in Sudan?" with Alan Boswell and Abdul Mohammed, long time follower of Sudanese issues.
The war in Sudan is effectively eliminating the concept of a Sudanese state. Sudan has been at war with itself since independence. Western Sudan is becoming integrated into the Sahel region and eastern Sudan is part of the Horn of Africa. One cannot rule out partition of the country.
What is needed now is a full-time mediation effort led by the African Union with complete bilateral and multilateral support. Sudan can be pieced together again because most Sudanese people want unity.
The International Crisis Group published on 16 April 2025 an analysis titled "Battle for Darfur Reaches Fever Pitch as Sudan's War Enters Third Year" by Shewit Woldemichael.
The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) still holds the North Darfur capital of El Fasher, which is under heavy siege from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). If the RSF succeeds in capturing El Fasher, it will control nearly all of Darfur, setting the stage for what many fear could result in a de facto partition of Sudan.
Reuters published on 21 March 2025 an article titled "Sudanese Army Says It Has Control of Presidential Palace in Khartoum" by Khalid Abdelaziz, Jana Choukeir, and Nafisa Eltahir.
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) seized full control of the presidential place in Khartoum from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has now mostly been pushed out of the capital region. Consequently, the RSF is strengthening its positions in western Sudan as the country moves toward de facto partition between the RSF and the SAF.
