Houthis Further Expand Control Over Red Sea Choke Point

 The New York Times published on 11 September 2026 an article titled "Why the Houthis' Lightning Advance Threatens Global Shipping" by Sergio Pecanha, Lazaro Gamio, and Weiyi Cai. 

The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen now have firm control of the Bab el Mandeb choke point at the south end of the Red Sea, having captured Perim Island.  A distance of only 12.5 miles now separates Perim Island from Djibouti across the Red Sea in Africa.  Shipping lanes through the Bab el Mandeb Strait run less than 3 miles from Perim Island, within easy range of Houthi drones.  

Saudi Workaround for Exporting Oil from Red Sea

 CNBC published on 12 August 2026 an article titled "Saudi Arabia Ramps Up Oil Exports Through Mediterranean Pipeline to Avoid Attacks in Red Sea" by Spencer Kimball and Deena Zaidi.

Following the Iranian-supported Houthi blockade of Saudi ships passing through the south end of the Red Sea, Riyadh is rerouting oil supertankers north through the Suez Canal even for oil destined for Asia.

The problem is that fully loaded supertankers sit too deep in the water to transit the Suez Canal.  Consequently, they pump half the Saudi oil cargo into a pipeline on Egypt's Red Sea coast that conveys it across Egypt to an outlet in the Mediterranean Sea.  The supertankers then transit the Suez Canal half loaded and reload the oil at the other end of the pipeline in the Mediterranean.  Saudi oil exports departing the south end of the Red Sea are down 90 percent.

Because of the Houthi blockade, a higher percentage of Saudi oil is now going north to Europe rather than south to Asia.  This may result in a boon for West African oil by making transport to Asia more competitive than oil originating in Saudi Arabia. 

The Decline of France in Africa's Sahel and Rise of China

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 29 July 2026 an article titled "How France's Fall Signals China's Rise in the Sahel" by Raghvendra Kumar.

China has seized on the decline of French and Western influence in Africa's Sahel to embed itself into the region's political, economic, and security structures.  The article pays particular attention to China's role in Burkina Faso.  

Yemen's Houthis Reportedly Ready to Attack Shipping in Southern Red Sea

 CNBC posted on 22 July 2026 an article titled "Houthis Deploy Missiles and Drones to Attack Ships in Southern Red Sea, Naval Group Says" by Spencer Kimball.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have completed preparations to attack shipping, including the deployment of missiles and drones positioned near the Bab el-Mandeb choke point at the south end of the Red Sea. 

The European Union's naval mission in the Middle East warned commercial ships linked to Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States to avoid transiting the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden.

Houthi Threat to the Red Sea

 The Council on Foreign Relations published on 20 July 2026 a background piece titled "Another Hormuz? What to Know About the Houthi Threat to the Red Sea" by Diana Roy.

The Yemen-based and Iranian-backed Houthis' decision to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia opens a new front in the U.S.-Iran war and threatens to choke off the Red Sea's 20-mile-wide Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with potentially major consequences for the global economy.

Iran War Moves to Houthis and Red Sea

 Al-Monitor published on 20 July 2026 an article titled "As Houthis Declare Red Sea Blockade on Saudi Arabia, Oil Markets Brace for Impact" by Jack Dutton.  

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels said on 20 July that it was imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, as the regional war widens to threaten another key route for global oil supplies following disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.  Because of the problems in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has redirected much of its crude exports by pipeline through its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu.  

Ships sailing north of Yanbu for Europe through the Suez Canal will not be impacted by this Houthi action.  Those headed south for Asia through the Bab el-Mandeb choke point will be impacted and the Saudis may put at risk a large percentage of current crude exports.  If the Houthis successfully prevent the Saudis from passing through Bab el-Mandeb, global supplies could fall by as much as 7 percent.  

Fall of City in Central Sudan Could Result in Partition of Country

 World Politics Review published on 13 July 2026 an article titled "Sudan Could Be Headed for De Facto Partition" by Mohamed Wad Al-Sak.  

If the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces take control of El Obeid in central Sudan from the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), it could result in a de facto partition of the country.  El Obed is the SAF's last command center in central Sudan and the linchpin of its western supply corridor.

China's Oil Tankers Take on Saudi Crude in Red Sea to Avoid Hormuz

 Caixin Global published on 17 March 2026 an article titled "Chinese Supertanker Changes Route and Takes Oil Without Passing through Hormuz."

A Chinese supertanker originally scheduled to load crude oil in the UAE rerouted to the Saudi Arabian Red Sea port of Yanbu.  Other vessels are taking a similar action, causing a bottleneck at the port, which is served by an oil pipeline with limited capacity.  

Chinese-built Niger-Benin Oil Pipeline Under Attack

 The South China Morning Post published on 27 February 2026 an article titled "Why Beijing's US$4.5 Billion Niger-Benin Oil Pipeline Is Being Attacked by Rebels" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

A rebel group has been attacking the oil pipeline from Niger's oilfields to an Atlantic port in Benin in an effort to restore a former elected president to power in Niger.  China financed, built, and continues to have a management role in the pipeline, which provides a significant amount of revenue for Niger's military junta.  Although the attacks are not aimed at China, the situation poses a dilemma for Beijing and its non-interference policy. 

Chinese Oil Companies in Niger in Line of Fire

 US Africa Command's Africa Defense Forum magazine published on 10 February 2026 an article titled "Rebels Target Niger Junta's Oil Revenue."

The Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice is engaged in a campaign to topple the military junta in Niger and restore elected President Mohamed Bazoum.  A significant part of the junta's revenue is generated by the oil pipeline from Niger to Benin.  The China National Petroleum Corporation and its subsidiary West African Oil Pipeline Company constructed the pipeline and continue to be engaged in its operations.  Most of the exported crude goes to China.  

China's involvement in the project has put Chinese oil companies in harm's way.  Beijing now seeks to find a way to protect both its investment and personnel still involved in the project from attacks by the Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice.    

Sudan Conflict Only Worsens in December

 Aljazeera published on 31 December 2025 an article titled "War in Sudan: Humanitarian Collapse, Fighting, Deadlock, December 2025" by Mohammad Mansour.

The humanitarian situation in Sudan deteriorated to a new low following a collapse of international funding, although the European Union launched an air bridge to deliver supplies to Darfur.  Kordofan province became the new epicenter for fighting as both the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces relied increasingly on the use of drones.  All attempts to end the conflict through negotiation appeared to be stalled.  

China Likely to Adapt to Latest West African Coup in Guinea-Bissau

 The South China Morning Post published on 15 December 2025 an article titled "Latest Coup Raises Stakes for Beijing's Economic Interests in West Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Just days after the Chinese ambassador met Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo to donate airport security inspection equipment, a military coup overturned the government.  Political instability in West Africa has raised the stakes for China's vast economic interests in the region.  Nevertheless, China is likely to remain active in West Africa and adapt to the most recent coup in Guinea-Bissau.  

China Exits Sudan/South Sudan Oil Sector

 The Sudan Tribune posted on 9 December 2025 an article titled "China's Exit from Sudan Oil Fields Deepens Crisis for War-ravaged Economy."

Following the Rapid Support Forces' seizure of the strategic Heglig oil field in South Sudan, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) declared force majeure and dissolved ahead of schedule its production-sharing and pipeline partnership in Sudan's oil sector.  This may end a vital revenue lifeline for both the Khartoum government and the government in South Sudan.  The early exit of CNPC also sends a chilling signal to future investors.

Sudan: Implications of Heglig Capture by RSF

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 11 December 2025 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces' capture of the Heglig oil field in South Sudan has intensified the Sudan crisis and brought South Sudan to the brink of war.

Sudan: RSF Takes Control of South Sudan's Strategic Heglig Oil Field

 Bloomberg published on 10 December 2025 an article titled "South Sudan Oil Exports at Risk" by Simon Marks and Salma El Wardany.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized the strategic Heglig oil field in South Sudan near the border with Sudan.  The crude from Heglig is transported by pipeline through Sudan to Port Sudan on the Red Sea.  South Sudan obtains nearly all of its state revenue from oil exports.  The seizure of the oil field by the RSF raises the prospect of a halt in South Sudanese oil exports and the loss of pipeline revenue for the Sudan Armed Forces.   

The Complexities of Conflict in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 28 March 2025 a 44-minute podcast titled "South Sudan on the Brink of Another War" hosted by Richard Atwood with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akesh.  

They examine what's behind recent clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile State before spreading to other parts of the country.  They also look at President Salva Kiir's government shakeup and how the war in neighboring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan.