Is the War in Sudan Nearing an End?

 Foreign Affairs published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "How the War in Sudan Could End" by Volker Perthes, German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

The author argues that both the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces may have reached the point where they believe it will be difficult to make more territorial gains at an acceptable cost.  Consequently, coordinated international pressure on both belligerents could result in a ceasefire, a first step towards peace.  

Sudan Conflict Only Worsens in December

 Aljazeera published on 31 December 2025 an article titled "War in Sudan: Humanitarian Collapse, Fighting, Deadlock, December 2025" by Mohammad Mansour.

The humanitarian situation in Sudan deteriorated to a new low following a collapse of international funding, although the European Union launched an air bridge to deliver supplies to Darfur.  Kordofan province became the new epicenter for fighting as both the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces relied increasingly on the use of drones.  All attempts to end the conflict through negotiation appeared to be stalled.  

Drones and Foreign Arms Transfers Fuel Sudan's War

 The UN Political and Peacebuilding Office posted on 22 December 2025 remarks titled "ASG Khiari Warns Indiscriminate Drone Strikes and Arms Flows Are Driving Sudan's War."

UN Assistant Secretary General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific, Khaled Khiari, condemned the use of drones and foreign supply of increasingly sophisticated and deadly weapons to the belligerents in Sudan's civil war.  Calls to end these flows have gone unheeded and there has been no accountability.  

China Exits Sudan/South Sudan Oil Sector

 The Sudan Tribune posted on 9 December 2025 an article titled "China's Exit from Sudan Oil Fields Deepens Crisis for War-ravaged Economy."

Following the Rapid Support Forces' seizure of the strategic Heglig oil field in South Sudan, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) declared force majeure and dissolved ahead of schedule its production-sharing and pipeline partnership in Sudan's oil sector.  This may end a vital revenue lifeline for both the Khartoum government and the government in South Sudan.  The early exit of CNPC also sends a chilling signal to future investors.

Sudan: Implications of Heglig Capture by RSF

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 11 December 2025 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces' capture of the Heglig oil field in South Sudan has intensified the Sudan crisis and brought South Sudan to the brink of war.

Sudan: RSF Takes Control of South Sudan's Strategic Heglig Oil Field

 Bloomberg published on 10 December 2025 an article titled "South Sudan Oil Exports at Risk" by Simon Marks and Salma El Wardany.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized the strategic Heglig oil field in South Sudan near the border with Sudan.  The crude from Heglig is transported by pipeline through Sudan to Port Sudan on the Red Sea.  South Sudan obtains nearly all of its state revenue from oil exports.  The seizure of the oil field by the RSF raises the prospect of a halt in South Sudanese oil exports and the loss of pipeline revenue for the Sudan Armed Forces.   

Continung Tension along Sudan and South Sudan Border

Foreign Affairs published on 8 October 2013 a letter from Jerome Tubiana, Sudan analyst at the International Crisis Group titled "Sudan and South Sudan Inch Toward War."  While the letter contains useful on the ground coverage of the situation along the Sudan-South Sudan border, the title of the letter is unfortunate.  It implies that South Sudan and Sudan are edging toward another war.  Localized border conflict continues to be a problem and could worsen, but neither Sudan nor South Sudan is interested in pursuing another devastating war. 

Sudan-South Sudan Border

Douglas H. Johnson, an expert on Sudan and member of the 2005 Abyei Boundaries Commission, is the author of When Boundaries Become Borders: The Impact of Boundary-making in Southern Sudan's Frontier Zones published in 2010 by the Rift Valley Institute in Nairobi. Click here to access the entire book.

On 2 May 2012, Johnson published on the Rift Valley Institute website a brief analysis of the dispute over Heglig. Although Heglig is internationally recognized as part of Sudan, he argued that the issue must ultimately be determined in terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and whether Panthou/Heglig is east or west of the boundary line established in 1931. He believes that if it is east, then it is part of Unity State in South Sudan. If it is west, then it is part of Southern Kordofan State in Sudan.

Click here to read his update on Panthou/Heglig.

Conflict over Heglig, Sudan

The Sudan Small Arms Survey published a brief update on the fighting between Sudan and North Sudan at Heglig, the disputed oil-producing area generally considered a part of Sudan's South Kordofan State but also claimed by South Sudan as part of Unity State. The area contains Sudan's largest producing oil field. Click here to read the report. Click here for an excellent map of the Heglig area.