Sudan Conflict Only Worsens in December

 Aljazeera published on 31 December 2025 an article titled "War in Sudan: Humanitarian Collapse, Fighting, Deadlock, December 2025" by Mohammad Mansour.

The humanitarian situation in Sudan deteriorated to a new low following a collapse of international funding, although the European Union launched an air bridge to deliver supplies to Darfur.  Kordofan province became the new epicenter for fighting as both the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces relied increasingly on the use of drones.  All attempts to end the conflict through negotiation appeared to be stalled.  

Ethiopia: Transitional Justice in Tigray

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 December 2025 a commentary titled "Why Transitional Justice for Tigray Is a Fiction" by Gidey Amare, a public servant in the health sector.

The Pretoria Agreement section on transitional justice for Tigray was predicated on the idea that the Ethiopian federal government, which was accused of many of the violations, would investigate itself.  The author argues that this was never realistic and the current policy cannot deliver justice for Tigray.  

Charging War Crimes in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 21 November 2025 an article titled "Documenting War Crimes in Sudan Begins Now" by Janine di Giovanni, Reckoning Project.

The evidence of war crimes in Darfur Region of Sudan is visible by satellite imagery from space.  It is supported by witness accounts.  The challenge now is to use the evidence in a court system and bring the perpetrators to justice.  

Prioritizing Sudan Policy in Washington

 Brookings published on 12 November 2025 a commentary titled "Sudan's Deadly Divide: The RSF and SAF's Reign of Terror" by Jeffrey Feltman, former US special envoy for the Horn of Africa. 

Referring to the Sudan Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces conflict as "fratricide," the author has disdain for both belligerents.  If the Trump administration hopes to achieve a cease fire, it needs to shift Sudan to a higher priority on Washington's already crowded agenda, including direct intervention by President Trump.   

Ending Sudan's War

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 14 November 2025 a statement titled "After El Fasher: Ending Sudan's Atrocious War."

The ICG concludes that to get a cease fire and make it stick, the Trump administration will simultaneously have to persuade Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to take the deal proposed by the Quad (US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and UAE) over the objections of his shaky domestic coalition and insist that the UAE throttle back patronage for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The ICG also noted the Quad will need to devote a united effort to achieve this goal and ensure the eventual creation of a civilian government.  

Only American Pressure Can End the Killing in Sudan

 Foreign Affairs published on 6 November 2025 a commentary titled "Terror Returns to Darfur: Only American Pressure Can Stop the Killing in Sudan" by Alex de Waal, World Peace Foundation.  

The author has studied and worked in Sudan for 40 years.  He concludes that "however terrible the war and its consequent famine in Sudan is today, it can still get much worse."  He argues that only strong US pressure and the personal engagement of President Trump can end the fighting.  

Stopping the Genocide in Sudan

 Foreign Policy posted on 5 November 2025 an article titled "How to Stop the Genocide in Sudan" by Mutasim Ali and Yonah Diamond, both with the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights.

The authors attribute the genocide in Sudan's Darfur region to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) with the backing of the UAE.  They argue the International Criminal Court should consider issuing arrest warrants for leaders suspected of complicity in the genocide and other atrocities and begin sanctioning the UAE.

South Africa Asks for Postponement of Naval Exercise with China and Russia

 The Associated Press published on 4 September 2025 an article titled "South Africa Asks China to Postpone Naval Exercises that Coincide with Possible Trump Trip for G20" by Gerald Imray.  

South Africa, China, and Russia had planned to hold their biennial joint naval exercise in late November.  South Africa asked China to postpone the exercise because it coincides with the 22-23 November meeting in South Africa of the G-20, which President Trump may attend.  

International Criminal Court Charges War Crimes in Sudan

UN News posted on 10 July 2025 an article titled "International Criminal Court: War Crimes, Systematic Sexual Violence Ongoing in Darfur" by Vibhu Mishra.   

The International Criminal Court told the UN Security Council that it has reasonable grounds to believe that both war crimes and crimes against humanity continue to be committed in the Darfur region of Sudan where there is a deepening conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  Sexual violence directed against women and girls is one of the most disturbing patterns.  

Former Leader of Ethiopia's Tigray Region Admits to Outrageous Crimes

 Ethiopia Insight published on 12 June 2025 a commentary titled "Justice on Trial in Ethiopia after Public Confessions" by Ephrem B. Hidug, former Ethiopian diplomat.

Getachew Reda, former interim president of Tigray Region, admitted in a public interview to an astonishing list of crimes committed during the Tigray war.  Getachew's interview puts Ethiopia's justice system on trial just as much as it puts him under scrutiny.  

Trump Administration and Future of Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 December 2024 a commentary titled "Will the New Trump Administration Act on Tigray?" by Mulugeta Gebregziabher, Medical University of South Carolina.

The author speculates on the policy the Trump administration will pursue vis-a-vis Ethiopia, concluding it will not vary much from Trump's first administration but may have an even greater focus on countering Russia and China in Ethiopia and Africa generally.  

Russia-South Africa Relations: It's Complicated

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published on 19 September 2024 a commentary titled "Can Old Alliances Survive New Realities in Russia-South Africa Relations?" by Gustavo de Carvalho and Xiang Chen.  

Historically close ties between the Soviet Union and the anti-apartheid movement (now the government) in South Africa is encountering a younger generation of leaders who are less concerned with this legacy.  As a result, there is strategic ambiguity in South Africa's policy today vis-a-vis Russia.

UN Fact Finding Mission Calls for Neutral Force to Defend Civilians in Sudan

The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights published on 6 September 2024 a press release titled "Sudan: UN Fact-Finding Mission Outlines Extensive Human Rights Violations, International Crimes, Urges Protection of Civilians." 

The three experts from Tanzania, Nigeria, and Jordan/Switzerland found an appalling range of human rights violations and international crimes in Sudan and called for immediate steps to protect civilians.  The experts were especially critical of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  They underscored the need to expand the arms embargo in Darfur and the immediate need to create "an independent and impartial force with a mandate to safeguard civilians."

The Associated Press published on 6 September 2024 an article titled "UN Investigators Urge Impartial Force as Sudan War Crimes Intensify." 

The article reports on the UN Fact-Finding Mission press release but points out that the experts did not specify which countries are complicit in war crimes nor suggest which countries might join a neutral force to protect civilians in Sudan.

Sexual Violence in Sudan

 Human Rights Watch published on 28 July 2024 a report titled "Khartoum Is Not Safe for Women! Sexual Violence against Women and Girls in Sudan's Capital."

The warring military factions in Sudan, especially the Rapid Support Forces, have committed widespread acts of sexual violence in areas of Khartoum over which they exercise control.  These acts constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity.  Human Rights Watch calls on the African Union and United Nations to deploy a civilian protection force in Sudan's capital.  

Need to Focus on Humanitarian Access in Sudan

 The US Institute of Peace published on 18 July 2024 a commentary titled "As Famine Spreads Across Sudan, Protecting Civilians Must Be a Priority" by Ilhan Dahir.

As the humanitarian situation deteriorates in Sudan and international efforts to protect civilians have been ineffectual, the author argues that the international community must focus on ways to ensure humanitarian aid access is unimpeded.  

A Massacre Threatens Darfur--Again

 The New York Times posted on 19 June 2024 an article titled "A Massacre Threatens Darfur--Again" by Lauren Leatherby, Declan Walsh, Sanjana Varghese, and Christoph Koettl.  

Based on photographs and satellite images of destruction in the cities of El Fasher and El Geneina in Sudan's Darfur region, the article suggests that a terrible situation can get even worse.  

Sudan's Humanitarian Crisis: Spreading the Blame

 Foreign Affairs published on 17 June 2024 a commentary titled "Sudan's Manmade Famine: How the United States and Its Gulf Partners Are Enabling Mass Starvation" by Alex de Waal.

The author argues that it is up to the United States and its Western allies to pressure Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who have considerable leverage over the belligerents in Sudan, to demand that the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces allow for the unimpeded distribution of food aid in order to forestall starvation.

Comment:  While the commentary makes a number of important and valid points, it is exasperating that most of the blame for this situation falls on the United States and its Western allies.  Is there no role for China, India, the African Union, and even the individual 54 (minus Sudan) African countries that vote in the UN General Assembly?  Why does the author give most of the rest of the world a pass?

Nor is there any mention in the commentary that the United States, the European Union, and its member states provide overwhelmingly the food aid that does reach Sudan and Sudanese refugees.  The United States alone has provided $968 million in humanitarian aid to Sudan since September 2023.  The rest of the world outside the EU has been largely absent.

It's time for more balance when playing the blame game.  

UN Calls for End of Siege of Major Sudanese City

 The Washington Post published on 14 June 2024 an article titled "U.N. Calls for End of Siege of Darfur City Amid Sudan Civil War" by Katharine Houreld and Paul Schemm.  

The UNSC passed a resolution with 14 nations in support and Russia abstaining, demanding the end of a siege of western Sudan's El Fasher city by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).  El Fasher is home to 2 million residents and another 800,000 civilians displaced by the fighting in Darfur region between the RSF and the Sudan Armed Forces.  The RSF is on the verge of overrunning the city.

Comment:  While the UN resolution is welcomed by most countries around the world, it has no teeth and will not likely have any impact on the fighting.  Russia's mercenary Wagner Group has a long history of supporting the RSF, which probably explains its abstention on the resolution.  

New Lines Institute Report Alleges Genocide in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 The Washington-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy published in June 2024 a 120-page report titled "Genocide in Tigray: Serious Breaches of International Law in the Tigray Conflict, Ethiopia, and Paths to Accountability."  The Washington Institute for Education and Research funds the New Lines Institute whose president and founder is Ahmed Alwani, a businessman based in northern Virginia.  

The document concludes there are multiple, widespread and credible independent reports that the conduct throughout Ethiopia of the federal Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) on behalf of Ethiopia, Amhara regional armed forces and/or Fano militia and loyal groups, the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF), as well as the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), Tigray Defence Forces (TPLF) and those loyal to them, violated international humanitarian law and international human rights law.

There is reasonable basis to believe that such violations amount to the commission of war crimes and/or crimes against humanity.  The report also concludes there is a reasonable basis to believe that members of the ENDF, the Amhara Special Forces, and the EDF committed genocide against Tigrayans.  

Sudan: Ethnic Cleansing in West Darfur

 Human Rights Watch published on 9 May 2024 a 218-page report titled "'The Massalit Will Not Come Home': Ethnic Cleansing and Crimes Against Humanity in El-Geneina, West Darfur, Sudan."

The report documents that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and their allied mainly Arab militias, including the Third-Front Tamazuj, an armed group, targeted the predominantly Masalit neighborhoods of El Geneina in relentless waves that began in April 2023.  The attackers committed other serious abuses such as torture, rape, and looting.  More than half a million refugees from West Darfur have fled to Chad since the beginning of this violence.