Power Struggle in Ethiopia's Tigray Region Has Wide Implications

 The International Crisis Group published on 15 May 2026 an analysis titled "Power Struggle in Ethiopia's Tigray: Averting a Return to War" by Magnus Taylor.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of Debretsion Gebremichael has seized control of the federal government supported Tigrayan administration in Mekele in a power grab.  This is a direct challenge to the federal government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.  

The situation is further complicated because the TPLF has the support of neighboring Eritrea and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) government in Khartoum.  For its part, the Abiy Ahmed government has been supportive of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, which is engaged in a civil war with the SAF.  Egypt may also join the fray on the side of the TPLF in order to complicate life for Addis Ababa as it builds dams on the Blue Nile, raising concerns in Cairo.  

Ethiopian Prime Minister Quietly Manipulates Political Forces in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 27 April 2026 a commentary titled "Abiy Is Quietly Dismantling Tigray" by Asmelash Yohannes Teklu, former senior advisor at the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission. 

The Tigray People's Liberation Front bears responsibility for its internal fractures, which the federal government is using to its advantage.  As a result, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has secured outcomes through quiet, calculated maneuvering that advance his strategic interests while avoiding the scrutiny that a return to war would incite.  Tigray remains deeply divided.  

Ethiopia's TPLF Threatens to Consolidate Control Over Tigray Region

AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 23 April 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo.   

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of hardliner Debretsion Gebremichael, announced its intention to reinstate the pre-Tigray war regional government, which would effectively void the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022.

TPLF control of Tigray region would increase the risk of large-scale armed conflict between the federal government and the TPLF.

Ethiopia: Tigray Since the Pretoria Agreement

The Rift Valley Institute published in March 2026 a study titled "Peace and Instability: Tigray since the Pretoria Agreement."

The analysis examines the post-2022 period in Tigray following the Pretoria Agreement, which halted large-scale fighting but left key drivers of conflict unresolved.  It highlights how territorial disputes, political exclusion, and stalled processes have created a fragile peace, with the risk of renewed large-scale conflict remaining.  

The Case for Genocide in Ethiopia's War in Tigray

 

Tghat, a Tigrayan media platform devoted to the war in Tigray, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Eritrea Committed Genocide in Tigray" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.  

The author argues that the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region was an effort by the federal government of Ethiopia and the government of Eritrea to destroy Tigray and eradicate its people.  

This is a much longer account of the arguments made by the author published by Ethiopia Insight and reposted below on 17 February.  

Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray Poised to Fight

 The International Crisis Group published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa."

A new war involving Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Region of Ethiopia is palpable.  It is gripped by rising tensions between the federal government in Addis Ababa, on one side, and the Tigray Region and its northern neighbor, Eritrea, on the other.  Recent developments suggest they are getting ready for conflict.  

Argument for Eritrea's Role in Tigray Genocide

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 February 2026 a commentary titled "Eritrea's Role in the Tigray Genocide" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University and manager of the Tigray Genocide website.  

The author argues that Eritrean troops joined those from the Ethiopian federal government to engage in a genocide against Tigrayans during the war in Tigray.  

Dissecting the War in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 15 February 2026 a commentary titled "Judging the Tigray Genocide Backwards" by Girmay Weldedawit, who now resides in Belgium, and Ella Atsbeha, who also lives outside Ethiopia.  

This is an "in the weeds" analysis of what went wrong in the Tigray War.  The authors take issue with the views of analysts such as Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot.  

Ethiopia Delists Three Reuters Journalists

 Geeska posted on 14 February 2026 an article titled "Getachew: Ethiopia Won't Be a 'Passive Bystander' after Reuters Report." 

The Ethiopian government declined to renew the accreditation of three Addis Ababa-based journalists working for Reuters following an in-depth Reuters report about a training camp near the Sudan border for the Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  See the story posted below on 10 February.  Ethiopian authorities did not publicly cite the reasons for the decision.  

Ethiopia-Eritrea and Regional Dynamics

 The International Crisis Group posted on 15 January 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "The Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff" with Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland, and Alan Boswell.  

Tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea continues to grow.  Both countries are increasing their purchase of weapons and extending their competition into the conflict in Sudan.  International pressure may be restraining direct conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  The political space in Tigray Region continues to fragment, although the faction aligned with Eritrea now has the upper hand.

Landlocked Ethiopia is pressing its effort to gain access to the Red Sea, now focusing on Eritrea's port of Assab, which is driving the tension with Asmara.  Eritrea takes the position that it cannot negotiate its sovereign territory.  Both countries also compete to be seen as leaders in the region.  

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are engaging in open conflict in Yemen and in the Horn of Africa.  Eritrea wants Saudi Arabia to counter UAE influence in the region.  Addis Ababa probably viewed Israel's recognition of Somaliland favorably while Asmara opposed it.  

One development that would improve relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea is an end to the conflict in Sudan.  This would remove a point of contention and open the door to a rapprochement.  

Ethiopia: Who Is to Blame for Tigray War?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 14 January 2026 a commentary titled "Getachew Blurs Blame for Tigray War to Excuse the Ethiopian State" by Mesfin Ayenew, a political analyst.

The author takes issue with the efforts of Getachew Reda, former interim president of Tigray Region, to explain the Tigray war in a way that selectively absolves Ethiopia's federal government.  Getachew claims the war resulted primarily from the belligerence and rhetorical excess of Tigray's leadership.  The author disagrees.

Ethiopia: The Challenges Facing Journalists in Tigray Region

 The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 21 October 2025 an article titled "'Stop Filming, Or I Will Shoot': Ethiopian Journalists Targeted in Tigray Turmoil."

Ethiopia's Tigray Region remains a dangerous place for journalists even though the civil war is over.  In addition, professional journalistic practices are missing as local journalists tend to side with one of the political factions in Tigray and contribute to polarization of the region.

Ethiopia: Critiquing Tigrayan Politics

 Ethiopia Insight published on 21 October 2025 a commentary titled "Guns Over Governance: The Militarization of Tigray's Politics" by Gebreselassie Kiros Hailu, Mekelle University and member of the Tigray Independence Party.  

The author argues that while Tigray's Defense Forces achieved significant battlefield victories during the war with central government forces, their lack of political and diplomatic engagement undercut broader strategic goals.  

Military leaders then dominated the Tigray People's Liberation Front following the Pretoria Agreement that ended the war.  Tigray's reconstruction and democratization have stagnated ever since then.  The military has been synonymous with corruption and political opportunism.  Tigray is at a perilous crossroads; the dream of a peaceful and democratic Tigray risks vanishing altogether.

Is a Tigray Region-Eritrea Alliance in the Cards?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 August 2025 a commentary titled "Strategic Reversals: Abiy's Miscalculation and the Tigray-Eritrea Realignment" by Yonas Nigussie, political economist.

The author argues that Tigray Region, sidelined by the collapse of the Pretoria Agreement, is fighting for survival.  Eritrea, haunted by fears of Ethiopian expansionism, seeks a strategic buffer.  Internal power struggles have fractured the Tigray People's Liberation Front.  One Tigrayan faction has signaled its willingness to align with Eritrea in an unholy alliance against the federal government of Ethiopia.  This could spark another bloody civil war.

Is War Returning to Ethiopia's Tigray Region?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 29 July 2025 a commentary titled "Abiy's War Script: Deja Vu for Tigray, Ominous for Ethiopia" by Mulugeta Gebregziabher, Medical University of South Carolina.

The author fears that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is laying the ground for renewed conflict in Tigray Region.  He calls for the restoration of the Tigray People's Liberation Movement's legal status as a political party and the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement to avoid new conflict.

Ethiopia: Unraveling of the Pretoria Agreement

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 July 2025 a commentary titled "Red Sea Reckonings: Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Unraveling of Pretoria" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda.

The Pretoria Agreement, signed in 2022, has not resulted in stability in Ethiopia.  Instead, alliances are fraying, old rivalries are reigniting, and fragile new fault lines are emerging.  A deterioration in Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea follows an effort by Addis Ababa to develop an outlet to the Red Sea.

One Person's Prescription for Salvaging Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 9 July 2025 a commentary titled "Daring the Untried: Struggling for a New Path in Ethiopia's Tigray Region" by Getachew Gebrekiros Temare, lawyer and peace activist. 

Tigray is adrift and no longer a unified region following a war with the central government that ended with the Pretoria Agreement in 2022.  The crisis is political, moral, generational, and spiritual.  There is an absence of transformative political vision and external players have become indifferent. 

The author argues for development of a nonviolent civic movement grounded in grassroots legitimacy and detached from party control.  It must promote truth-telling, communal healing, and justice that goes beyond rhetoric.  Tigray's future will not be salvaged by secret deals or new wars.

Former Leader of Ethiopia's Tigray Region Admits to Outrageous Crimes

 Ethiopia Insight published on 12 June 2025 a commentary titled "Justice on Trial in Ethiopia after Public Confessions" by Ephrem B. Hidug, former Ethiopian diplomat.

Getachew Reda, former interim president of Tigray Region, admitted in a public interview to an astonishing list of crimes committed during the Tigray war.  Getachew's interview puts Ethiopia's justice system on trial just as much as it puts him under scrutiny.  

An Insider Disects the Collapse of the Tigray People's Liberation Front

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 May 2025 a commentary titled "TPLF Insider Blows Lid Off Party's Long Road to Collapse."

An anonymous former Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leader discusses the unraveling of the party.  The insider argues that the TPLF's problems were not caused by any one person but were a cumulative disaster decades in the making.

Ethiopia: Split in Tigray People's Liberation Movement Poses Major Challenge

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 15 May 2025 an analysis titled "Reorganizing Power in Tigray Region: Likely Implications for Peace and Conflict Dynamics in Ethiopia."

The analysis concludes that the toughest challenge for Tigray's interim administration is its ability to develop a unified and coherent strategy to advance an ideological assessment and internal reform of the Tigray People's Liberation Front.  Successfully aligning political objectives with the central priorities of the Ethiopian state and the urgent needs of the Tigrayan people will be critical for long-term stability.