Ethiopia Insight published on 20 May 2026 a commentary titled "The AU Turned Pretoria into Abiy's Shield" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.
This account provides one interpretation for the failure to implement the Pretoria Agreement in a manner that ends conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.
The International Crisis Group published on 15 May 2026 an analysis titled "Power Struggle in Ethiopia's Tigray: Averting a Return to War" by Magnus Taylor.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of Debretsion Gebremichael has seized control of the federal government supported Tigrayan administration in Mekele in a power grab. This is a direct challenge to the federal government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The situation is further complicated because the TPLF has the support of neighboring Eritrea and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) government in Khartoum. For its part, the Abiy Ahmed government has been supportive of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, which is engaged in a civil war with the SAF. Egypt may also join the fray on the side of the TPLF in order to complicate life for Addis Ababa as it builds dams on the Blue Nile, raising concerns in Cairo.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 7 May 2026 an article titled "TPLF Takes Control of Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front reinstated the pre-Tigray war regional government, effectively voiding the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022. This action creates a rival body to replace the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA). It also sets up a showdown with the Ethiopian federal government, which supports the TIA, and increases the risk of military confrontation.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 23 April 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the control of hardliner Debretsion Gebremichael, announced its intention to reinstate the pre-Tigray war regional government, which would effectively void the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022.
TPLF control of Tigray region would increase the risk of large-scale armed conflict between the federal government and the TPLF.
The AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 9 April 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia - Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.
The Ethiopian Federal Government extended the mandate of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) by one year on 8 April. This may buy time for both sides and avert a return to war in Tigray Region.
The International Crisis Group published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa."
A new war involving Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Region of Ethiopia is palpable. It is gripped by rising tensions between the federal government in Addis Ababa, on one side, and the Tigray Region and its northern neighbor, Eritrea, on the other. Recent developments suggest they are getting ready for conflict.
Ethiopia Insight published on 15 February 2026 a commentary titled "Judging the Tigray Genocide Backwards" by Girmay Weldedawit, who now resides in Belgium, and Ella Atsbeha, who also lives outside Ethiopia.
This is an "in the weeds" analysis of what went wrong in the Tigray War. The authors take issue with the views of analysts such as Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot.
The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 21 October 2025 an article titled "'Stop Filming, Or I Will Shoot': Ethiopian Journalists Targeted in Tigray Turmoil."
Ethiopia's Tigray Region remains a dangerous place for journalists even though the civil war is over. In addition, professional journalistic practices are missing as local journalists tend to side with one of the political factions in Tigray and contribute to polarization of the region.
Foreign Policy posted on 21 October 2025 an article titled "The Risk of a New Ethiopian-Eritrean War Is Growing" by Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland, and Abate Demissie, Chatham House.
Recent developments in Ethiopia's Tigray Region, which borders Eritrea, are eroding relations between the two countries, and the risk of open conflict is growing. Reviving the dialogue between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigray Region is the first step in forestalling conflict. Providing landlocked Ethiopia guaranteed options for Red Sea port access is also essential.
Ethiopia Insight published on 21 October 2025 a commentary titled "Guns Over Governance: The Militarization of Tigray's Politics" by Gebreselassie Kiros Hailu, Mekelle University and member of the Tigray Independence Party.
The author argues that while Tigray's Defense Forces achieved significant battlefield victories during the war with central government forces, their lack of political and diplomatic engagement undercut broader strategic goals.
Military leaders then dominated the Tigray People's Liberation Front following the Pretoria Agreement that ended the war. Tigray's reconstruction and democratization have stagnated ever since then. The military has been synonymous with corruption and political opportunism. Tigray is at a perilous crossroads; the dream of a peaceful and democratic Tigray risks vanishing altogether.
Ethiopia Insight published on 20 August 2025 a commentary titled "Strategic Reversals: Abiy's Miscalculation and the Tigray-Eritrea Realignment" by Yonas Nigussie, political economist.
The author argues that Tigray Region, sidelined by the collapse of the Pretoria Agreement, is fighting for survival. Eritrea, haunted by fears of Ethiopian expansionism, seeks a strategic buffer. Internal power struggles have fractured the Tigray People's Liberation Front. One Tigrayan faction has signaled its willingness to align with Eritrea in an unholy alliance against the federal government of Ethiopia. This could spark another bloody civil war.
Ethiopia Insight published on 16 July 2025 a commentary titled "Red Sea Reckonings: Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Unraveling of Pretoria" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda.
The Pretoria Agreement, signed in 2022, has not resulted in stability in Ethiopia. Instead, alliances are fraying, old rivalries are reigniting, and fragile new fault lines are emerging. A deterioration in Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea follows an effort by Addis Ababa to develop an outlet to the Red Sea.
The Reporter published on 28 June 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray Between Two Fires: Ethiopia's Red Sea Ambitions, Eritrea's Proxy Games and the TPLF's Last Stand" by Mulat Gebreslassie, independent consultant and attorney.
The continued presence of Eritrean troops in Tigrayan border areas has become a flashpoint with Ethiopia. The Eritrean troops have been there since Asmara supported the Ethiopian federal government in its war with Tigray Region that ended in 2022. Now there are concerns that Eritrea is engaging with a faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Tigray Defense Forces, using them as proxies to counter the Ethiopian federal government, which seeks an outlet through Eritrea to the Red Sea. Consequently, tension is rising between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Ethiopia Insight published on 26 May 2025 a commentary titled "TPLF Insider Blows Lid Off Party's Long Road to Collapse."
An anonymous former Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leader discusses the unraveling of the party. The insider argues that the TPLF's problems were not caused by any one person but were a cumulative disaster decades in the making.
The Emirates Policy Center published on 15 May 2025 an analysis titled "Reorganizing Power in Tigray Region: Likely Implications for Peace and Conflict Dynamics in Ethiopia."
The analysis concludes that the toughest challenge for Tigray's interim administration is its ability to develop a unified and coherent strategy to advance an ideological assessment and internal reform of the Tigray People's Liberation Front. Successfully aligning political objectives with the central priorities of the Ethiopian state and the urgent needs of the Tigrayan people will be critical for long-term stability.
Ethiopia Insight published on 14 May 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray's Hijacked Transition" by Weldeslassie Hailai Abera, University of KwaZulu-Natal.
The author argues that a faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael led an "illegitimate power grab" of the Tigray People's Liberation Front. He concludes that Tigray's future depends on a fundamental shift: bringing the Tigray Defense Forces under civilian control, dismantling ethnic-based patronage, and empowering youth and the diaspora.
Ethiopia Insight published on 10 April 2025 a commentary titled "The Battle for Tigray" by Ella Atsbeha, a Tigrayan writer based outside the region.
The author revisits the war in Tigray, the Pretoria Agreement, and recent political developments in Tigray Region and within the TPLF. He argues that the TPLF's resurgence in Tigray reduces the prospect of war with Eritrea.
The International Crisis Group published on 27 March 2025 an analysis titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Slide Closer to War amid Tigray Upheaval."
Political turmoil in Tigray Region and growing tension between Addis Ababa and Asmara over landlocked Ethiopia's desire to obtain access to the Red Sea are driving the current crisis in the Horn of Africa.
World Politics Review published on 27 March 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Are Back on a War Footing" by Fred Harter, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.
A power struggle in Tigray Region between Debretsion Gebremichael and Getachew Reda is the proximate cause of the current crisis in Ethiopia, but a more explosive dynamic is the escalating rivalry between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara. In February, Eritrea ordered a nationwide military mobilization, and Ethiopia has been moving military equipment and troops to its border with Eritrea.
