Ethiopian Prime Minister Quietly Manipulates Political Forces in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 27 April 2026 a commentary titled "Abiy Is Quietly Dismantling Tigray" by Asmelash Yohannes Teklu, former senior advisor at the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission. 

The Tigray People's Liberation Front bears responsibility for its internal fractures, which the federal government is using to its advantage.  As a result, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has secured outcomes through quiet, calculated maneuvering that advance his strategic interests while avoiding the scrutiny that a return to war would incite.  Tigray remains deeply divided.  

The Case for Genocide in Ethiopia's War in Tigray

 

Tghat, a Tigrayan media platform devoted to the war in Tigray, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Eritrea Committed Genocide in Tigray" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.  

The author argues that the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region was an effort by the federal government of Ethiopia and the government of Eritrea to destroy Tigray and eradicate its people.  

This is a much longer account of the arguments made by the author published by Ethiopia Insight and reposted below on 17 February.  

Argument for Eritrea's Role in Tigray Genocide

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 February 2026 a commentary titled "Eritrea's Role in the Tigray Genocide" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University and manager of the Tigray Genocide website.  

The author argues that Eritrean troops joined those from the Ethiopian federal government to engage in a genocide against Tigrayans during the war in Tigray.  

Dissecting the War in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 15 February 2026 a commentary titled "Judging the Tigray Genocide Backwards" by Girmay Weldedawit, who now resides in Belgium, and Ella Atsbeha, who also lives outside Ethiopia.  

This is an "in the weeds" analysis of what went wrong in the Tigray War.  The authors take issue with the views of analysts such as Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot.  

Ethiopia: Critiquing Tigrayan Politics

 Ethiopia Insight published on 21 October 2025 a commentary titled "Guns Over Governance: The Militarization of Tigray's Politics" by Gebreselassie Kiros Hailu, Mekelle University and member of the Tigray Independence Party.  

The author argues that while Tigray's Defense Forces achieved significant battlefield victories during the war with central government forces, their lack of political and diplomatic engagement undercut broader strategic goals.  

Military leaders then dominated the Tigray People's Liberation Front following the Pretoria Agreement that ended the war.  Tigray's reconstruction and democratization have stagnated ever since then.  The military has been synonymous with corruption and political opportunism.  Tigray is at a perilous crossroads; the dream of a peaceful and democratic Tigray risks vanishing altogether.

Ethiopia: Unraveling of the Pretoria Agreement

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 July 2025 a commentary titled "Red Sea Reckonings: Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Unraveling of Pretoria" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda.

The Pretoria Agreement, signed in 2022, has not resulted in stability in Ethiopia.  Instead, alliances are fraying, old rivalries are reigniting, and fragile new fault lines are emerging.  A deterioration in Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea follows an effort by Addis Ababa to develop an outlet to the Red Sea.

An Insider Disects the Collapse of the Tigray People's Liberation Front

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 May 2025 a commentary titled "TPLF Insider Blows Lid Off Party's Long Road to Collapse."

An anonymous former Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leader discusses the unraveling of the party.  The insider argues that the TPLF's problems were not caused by any one person but were a cumulative disaster decades in the making.

Ethiopia: Tigray's Hijacked Transition

 Ethiopia Insight published on 14 May 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray's Hijacked Transition" by Weldeslassie Hailai Abera, University of KwaZulu-Natal.  

The author argues that a faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael led an "illegitimate power grab" of the Tigray People's Liberation Front.  He concludes that Tigray's future depends on a fundamental shift: bringing the Tigray Defense Forces under civilian control, dismantling ethnic-based patronage, and empowering youth and the diaspora.  

The Evolution of Politics in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 10 April 2025 a commentary titled "The Battle for Tigray" by Ella Atsbeha, a Tigrayan writer based outside the region.  

The author revisits the war in Tigray, the Pretoria Agreement, and recent political developments in Tigray Region and within the TPLF.  He argues that the TPLF's resurgence in Tigray reduces the prospect of war with Eritrea.  

Edging Towards Another Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict?

 World Politics Review published on 27 March 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Are Back on a War Footing" by Fred Harter, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.

A power struggle in Tigray Region between Debretsion Gebremichael and Getachew Reda is the proximate cause of the current crisis in Ethiopia, but a more explosive dynamic is the escalating rivalry between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara.  In February, Eritrea ordered a nationwide military mobilization, and Ethiopia has been moving military equipment and troops to its border with Eritrea.

Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray in the Middle

 Ethiopia Insight published on 21 March 2025 a commentary titled "Abiy and Isaias Fight over Tigray" by Ermias Gebregziabher, who now resides in the United States.

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki hoped the war in Tigray would weaken the Tigray People's Liberation Front and neutralize the Ethiopian National Defense Forces.  The end of the conflict in Tigray has divided the previous unity of Tigrayans and reportedly resulted in both Eritrea and the government in Addis Ababa aligning with one of the Tigrayan factions.  It also raises the possibility of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  

Podcast on Rising Tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea

 The International Crisis Group posted on 14 March 2025 a 37-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea, On a Collision Course" with Alan Boswell and Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland.

They discuss the rising tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the political crisis in Tigray Region, and whether another war can be averted.  A split in the once united Tigray People's Liberation Front with one faction potentially willing to side with Eritrea and the other with Abiy Ahmed's central government is the proximate cause of the current crisis.

What happens in Tigray Region, which has a long border with Eritrea, will likely determine whether conflict breaks out between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  The best way to deescalate the crisis is to encourage Tigrayan reconciliation.  

Looming Civil War in Ethiopia

AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 13 March 2025 an analysis titled "Looming Civil War in Africa."

A battle for legitimacy between the Tigray People's Liberation Movement (TPLF) and the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) threatens to ignite a war in Tigray Region that could escalate into a proxy or regional war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Ethiopia Ends One War as Another Looms

 The Economist published on 27 October 2024 an article titled "Another African War Looms."

The end of fighting in Tigray Region in 2022 did not settle the conflicts between Tigray and the war's two other main parties, Eritrea and the militias from Amhara Region.  In addition, much of the countryside in Amhara Region is now under the control of local Fano militia groups.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reached out to the Tigrayans, his former enemies, about a possible military alliance against Eritrea, his former ally in the war against Tigray.  Some Tigrayans reportedly support an alliance with Abiy while others are interested in an alliance with Eritrea aimed at overthrowing Abiy.  

US Secretary of State Calls for Accountability of Atrocities in Ethiopia

 The Washington Post published on 16 March 2023 an article titled "Blinken Looks to Restore Ties in Ethiopia without Glossing over War Crimes" by John Hudson and Katharine Houreld.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken just completed a visit to Ethiopia in an effort to improve the bilateral relationship but did not restore Ethiopia's eligibility for Africa Growth and Opportunity Act benefits.  Blinken stressed in his meeting with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed "the importance of accountability for the atrocities perpetrated by all parties to the conflict."

Tigray Defense Force Losses Suggest Return to Guerrilla Warfare

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 October 2022 a commentary titled "Tigray's Resistance Will Grow in the Face of Adversity" by Yonas Nigussie, a political economist.

The author argues that the recent loss of towns to the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies may strengthen Tigrayan resistance as they return to guerrilla tactics.  The Tigray Defense Force strategy is to buy time and gradually weaken Ethiopian and Eritrean forces.

Ethiopian Peace Talks Under Way in South Africa

 The Associated Press published on 25 October 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia Peace Talks Have Begun on Tigray, South Africa Says" by Mogomotsi Magome.

Following new losses on the battlefield in the face of Ethiopian central government and Eritrean armies, Tigray leaders have joined those from Addis Ababa at African-Union led peace talks in South Africa.

Ethiopian Peace Talks Resume in South Africa

 Reuters published on 24 October 2022 an article titled "First Peace Talks in Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict to Start in South Africa."

Delegations from the Ethiopian central government and Tigray Region are meeting in South Africa to resume peace talks under the auspices of the African Union.  A US military aircraft transported the head of the Tigrayan delegation, Tsadkan Gebre Tensae, accompanied by US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, Mike Hammer, to South Africa.

Ethiopia: Fighting Rages in Tigray Region with No Peace in Sight

 The New York Times published on 8 October 2022 an article titled "After Secret U.S. Talks Fail, a Hidden War in Africa Rapidly Escalates" by Declan Walsh.

Fighting has surged in Ethiopia's Tigray Region as secret efforts to achieve peace led by the United States have given way to raging combat.  Eritrean forces have pounded Tigray with artillery barrages and several thousand Ethiopian troops have been flown to Eritrea to help with the assault along Tigray's northern border.  Tigray Defense Forces have been able to resupply with flights from neighboring Sudan.  

Call for TPLF to Share Power in Tigray

 Ethiopia Insight published on 6 March 2022 a commentary titled "For Lasting Peace, TPLF's Monopolization of Power in Tigray Must End" by Gebrehiwot Hadush Abera, former dean of the College of Law and Governance at Mekelle University and now at KU Leuven University in Belgium.

The author argues that the Tigray People's Liberation Front should not be considered the sole political actor that represents Tigray.  Tigrayan opposition parties need to be engaged to give more legitimacy to any peace talks with the central government.