China's Railway Politics in Africa

 Global China Pulse published on 2 October 2024 a discussion titled "The Railpolitik: A Conversation with Yuan Wang" hosted by Hong Zhang, Indiana University.

The discussion deals with Yuan Wang's recent book on the political context in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Angola where Chinese funding and contractors have been involved in building high-profile railway projects promising to transform the local landscape.  She identifies as a key factor the instrumentalization of the infrastructure by local leaders for the sake of their political survival.  

African Union Envoy Puts Ethiopian Civil War Death Toll at 600,000

 The Financial Times published on 15 January 2023 an article titled "War in Tigray May Have Killed 600,000 People, Peace Mediator Says" by David Pilling and Andres Schipani.  

African Union envoy and former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo said in an interview that about 600,000 died in the civil war that began in Ethiopia in November 2020.  A research group at the University of Ghent agrees that this number may be close to accurate but others suggest casualty figures should be treated with extreme caution.  

AU Monitoring Team to Oversea Ethiopian Peace Deal

 The Voice of America published on 23 December 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia, Tigray Rebels Agree to African Union Monitoring Team" by Mohammed Yusuf.

Ethiopian central government officials and the Tigray People's Liberation Front have agreed to establish a joint monitoring team to oversee the peace agreement.  The two sides discussed ways to implement disarmament of the Tigrayan forces and negotiate the withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Tigray Region.  

Indian Publication Offers Hopeful but Cautious Analysis of Ethiopian Peace Agreement

 India's Frontline Magazine published on 30 November 2022 an article titled "Peace Deal between Government of Ethiopia and TPLF a Welcome First Step" by John Cherian.

The article offers a review of the conflict in Tigray Region and provides a cautiously optimistic assessment of the peace deal going forward.  

US Commends Ethiopian Agreement on Humanitarian Access to Tigray, Amhara, and Afar Regions

 The US Department of State issued a statement on 12 November 2022 titled "Resumption of Humanitarian Assistance to Northern Ethiopia."

The statement welcomes the humanitarian access permissions that have already been restored in Ethiopia as well as the firm commitments for humanitarian assistance to flow to Tigray Region and the affected areas of Afar and Amhara Regions.  The US is the largest provider of humanitarian aid to Ethiopia, and will continue to deliver assistance to those most in need.  

Implementation of the Ethiopian Peace Agreement

 Reuters published on 12 November 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia Combatants Sign Deal to Start Implementing Truce" by Ayenat Mersie.

Meeting in Kenya, military leaders from Ethiopia's central government and Tigray Region agreed upon terms to implement the peace agreement signed in South Africa on 2 November.  Significantly, they agreed that "disarmament of heavy weapons will be done with the withdrawal of foreign [read Eritrean] and non-ENDF (federal military) forces [read Amhara militia] from the region."

Comment:  The continued presence of Eritrean Defense Forces in Tigray Region and Amhara militia in Western Tigray is a particularly sensitive issue and not specifically mentioned in the agreement laying out the roadmap for implementation of the peace deal.  The reference to "foreign" almost certainly refers to Eritrean forces while non-Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) probably refers to Amhara militia.  

Interview with Tigrai Press on Ethiopian Peace Agreement

 Tigrai Press interviewed me on 11 November 2022 on the Ethiopian peace agreement.  The 52-minute conversation moderated by Bisrat Kebede and titled "The Negotiations and America's Role" covered all aspects of the peace agreement.  

Ethiopian Peace Agreement Depends Largely on Eritrea

 The East African published on 12 November 2022 an article titled "Why Ethiopia's Peace Deal Banks on Eritrea's Next Military Move" by Aggrey Mutambo.

Since the signing of a peace agreement on 2 November between the Ethiopian government and Tigray authorities, Eritrean officials have been silent.  The TPLF alleges, however, that Eritrean forces in Tigray are still fighting, killing and kidnapping.  Disarmament of the Tigrayan forces will almost certainly not happen so long as Eritrean Defense Forces continue their attacks inside Tigray.  

Comments on Kenya's Railway Loan with China

 The New York Times published on 8 November 2022 an article titled "Kenya Discloses Part of Secret Railway Contract with China" by Abdi Latif Dahir.

Kenya has disclosed some details of the 2014 loan agreement with China for construction of its standard gauge railway from Mombasa to Nairobi and beyond.  The terms of the loan seem to favor China.  The full contract has not yet been made public.

Some Progress on Implementation of Ethiopian Peace Agreement

 The Associated Press published on 7 November 2022 an article titled "New Round of Peace Talks between Ethiopia, Tigray Envoys" by Cara Anna.

Following the signing of a cessation of hostilities agreement last week in South Africa, military leaders from the Ethiopian National Defense Forces and the Tigray Defense Forces met in Kenya to begin discussions on implementation of the agreement.

Reuters published on 7 November 2022 an article titled "Ethiopian and Tigray Forces Launch Hotline as New Peace Talks Begin" by Hereward Holland and Tommy Wilkes.  

The Ethiopian government and Tigrayan forces established a telephone hotline as part of an effort to help ensure implementation of the peace agreement.  

Discussion of Ethiopian Peace Agreement

 The Somali Media Network posted on 6 November 2022 a 43-minute podcast with me as part of its "Weekly Focus on Horn of Africa" with Ismail Qodax.

The entire discussion dealt with the Ethiopian peace agreement signed in South Africa earlier this week and the challenges that it faces in the implementation stage, especially the role of Eritrean troops inside Ethiopia.  

Ethiopian Peace Deal and Possible Spoilers

 The New York Times published on 2 November 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia and Tigray Forces Agree to Truce in Calamitous Civil War" by Declan Walsh, Abdi Latif Dahir, and Lynsey Chutel.  

Peace negotiators cautioned that forces inside and outside Ethiopia could yet derail the peace process and tip the country back into war.  This appeared to be a reference to the government of Eritrea and Amhara militia forces, neither of whom took part in the peace talks in South Africa.  

Reaction to Ethiopian Peace Agreement

 Reuters published on 3 November 2022 an article titled "Reaction to Ethiopia Truce Deal."

The article contains the following statements, among others:

Olusegun Obasanjo, Head of the African Union Mediation Team

"This moment is not the end of the peace process.  Implementation of the peace agreement signed today is critical for its success."

Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopian Prime Minister

"Our commitment to peace remains steadfast.  And out commitment to collaborating for the implementation of the agreement is equally strong."

Getachew Reda, spokesman for Tigray

"Making peace has proved more difficult and more intractable and elusive than presiding over the killing of women and children and destruction of property."

Uhuru Kenyatta, former president of Kenya and facilitator for peace talks

"The lasting solution can only be dialogue."

Ethiopia: Central Government and Tigrayans Fight and Talk At Same Time

 World Politics Review published on 1 November 2022 a commentary titled "Ethiopia and the TPLF Are Now Talking Peace As They Fight On" by Chris  Olaoluwa Ogunmodede.

The author concludes that the current peace talks in South Africa are unlikely to bring an immediate halt to a multilayered conflict with deep sociopolitical roots.  But for better or worse, the talks represent the best hope for Ethiopians on both sides of the conflict.

Ethiopia Threatens to Sever Relations with Certain Countries

 South Africa's News 24 published on 29 October 2022 an article titled "Tigray Conflict Talks: Ethiopia Threatens to Cut Ties with Countries Pushing 'Sinister Political Agenda'" by Lenin Ndebele.

Ethiopia has threatened to cut diplomatic ties with countries that it believes are making politically motivated accusations about the civil war in Ethiopia.

Ethiopian Peace Talks Under Way in South Africa

 The Associated Press published on 25 October 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia Peace Talks Have Begun on Tigray, South Africa Says" by Mogomotsi Magome.

Following new losses on the battlefield in the face of Ethiopian central government and Eritrean armies, Tigray leaders have joined those from Addis Ababa at African-Union led peace talks in South Africa.

Ethiopian Peace Talks Are an Aspiration, Not a Reality

 The Council on Foreign Relations blog posted on 11 October 2022 a commentary titled "Peace Talks for Tigray Delayed" by Michelle Gavin.  

There appears to be little if any willingness to engage in serious peace talks at the present time.  

Ethiopian Peace Talks Postponed

 The Associated Press published on 7 October 2022 an article titled "Peace Talks in Ethiopia Conflict Are Delayed, Diplomats Say" by Cara Anna.

African Union-sponsored peace talks scheduled for this weekend in South Africa have been postponed indefinitely for a variety of reasons.  

Resumption of Ethiopian Peace Talks?

 Reuters published on 5 October 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia Accepts African Union Invitation to Peace Talks" by Giulia Paravicini.

The Ethiopian government has accepted an invitation from the African Union to participate in peace talks with Tigrayan officials.  Olusegun Obasanjo will lead the talks supported by Uhuru Kenyatta.  The Tigray People's Liberation Front said it is unaware of any imminent talks.  

Ideas for Reaching Peace in Ethiopia

 Aljazeera published on 22 September 2022 a commentary titled "What Ethiopia and Tigray Need for Peace Talks to Succeed" by Mahari Taddele Maru, scholar on peace and security.  

The author proposes a process that he believes constitutes the best way to achieve peace in northern Ethiopia.