Borkena published on 11 April 2026 an article titled "Chinese Special Envoy to Horn of Africa Meets Eritrean President."
Ambassador Hu Changchun, China's Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, met this week in Asmara with Eritrean President Isaias Afeworki. While this appears to be a routine meeting, it follows a high-level Ethiopian visit to China to restructure its large debt. Landlocked Ethiopia has also approached China concerning mediation with Eritrea on access to the Red Sea.
World Politics Review published on 9 April 2026 a commentary titled "Turkey's High-Risk, High-Reward Wager in the Horn of Africa" by Elfadil Ibrahim.
Turkey is investing billions of dollars in oil and gas development, advanced weaponry, and expanding security cooperation in the Horn of Africa, especially Somalia. The Horn of Africa is a risky neighborhood facing a number of actual and potential conflicts.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 9 April 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia-Egypt" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.
Ethiopia has solicited bids from international companies to build three dams on the Blue Nile upstream from the existing Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam at a total cost of $10.5 billion over seven years. Downstream Egypt opposes the construction and sent a letter from President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi to President Trump promising "a firm and decisive response" to any future dams. Theoretically, the United Sates is trying to mediate the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia.
The AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 9 April 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia - Tigray" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.
The Ethiopian Federal Government extended the mandate of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) by one year on 8 April. This may buy time for both sides and avert a return to war in Tigray Region.
World Politics Review published on 26 March 2026 an article titled "A Looming 'Mega-War' in the Horn of Africa" by Elliot Waldman.
The author is of the view that Ethiopian support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Sudan's civil war and growing internal conflict in Ethiopia open the prospect for a "regional mega-war."
African Business published on 11 March 2026 an article titled "Why Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Are Rising Again" by Harry Clynch.
Ethiopia and Eritrea have amassed troops on their shared border, leading some analysts to fear that war could be on its way. Other analysts are less convinced that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is likely.
Tghat, a Tigrayan media platform devoted to the war in Tigray, published on 18 February 2026 a commentary titled "Why Eritrea Committed Genocide in Tigray" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University.
The author argues that the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia's Tigray Region was an effort by the federal government of Ethiopia and the government of Eritrea to destroy Tigray and eradicate its people.
This is a much longer account of the arguments made by the author published by Ethiopia Insight and reposted below on 17 February.
The International Crisis Group posted on 4 March 2026 a commentary titled "As Tensions Mount, Sudan Accuses Ethiopia of New Hostilities" by Alan Boswell.
Sudan has charged that Ethiopia is permitting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to launch drones that strike locations inside Sudan and warned Addis Ababa of unspecified consequences. Tension in the Horn of Africa was already high; this just raises the temperature.
Ethiopia Insight published on 3 March 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray and Eritrea Must Cooperate to Survive" by Negasi Awetehey, University of Aksum.
The author argues that successive governments in Addis Ababa view relations between Eritrea and Tigray with suspicion and find it in their interest to keep old wounds active. He calls for dialogue between Tigrayans and Eritreans, adding that Tigray and Eritrea must challenge war narratives by amplifying the public's desire for peace, rehabilitation, and economic cooperation.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 25 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia Prepares for War: Africa File Special Edition" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.
The analysis concludes that the Ethiopian federal government will likely launch an offensive against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) within the next month to neutralize the TPLF and its role in an emerging, loose anti-Ethiopian federal government coalition consisting of Eritrea, the TPLF, and other Amhara and Oromo ethnic nationalist groups.
The Conversation published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea Are on Edge Again: What's Behind the Growing Risk of War" by Yohannes Gedamu.
The author argues that landlocked Ethiopia's desire for maritime access, Eritrea's support for armed dissident groups in Ethiopia, and Eritrea's omission from the peace process that ended the Tigray war are the primary drivers of current tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs published on 11 February 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Diplomacy, Eritrea's Escalation, and the Future of the Horn of Africa" by Bemnet Alemayehu.
Ethiopia's minister of foreign affairs sent a letter on 7 February to his counterpart in Eritrea expressing serious concern over Eritrea's military penetration deeper into Ethiopia's northeastern border areas. Ethiopia charged the troops violate the country's territorial integrity and demanded their immediate withdrawal. At the same time, Ethiopia called for diplomatic engagement to avoid reciprocal military escalation.
Ethiopia Insight published on 23 February 2026 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Ambiguous Letter Said More Than It Stated" by Dahilon Yassin Mohamoda.
The author raises interesting questions about the substance and form of the letter.
A facsimile of the 7 February letter between the two foreign ministers has been posted online. Read it and decide for yourself what kind of message Ethiopia is sending to Eritrea and the world. Is the letter an example of what Professor Don Levine called Ethiopia's Amharic tradition of "Wax and Gold?"
Ethiopia Insight published on 20 February 2026 a commentary titled "Tigray Is Under Siege Again" by Kiros Nigus Thegay, a human rights advocate.
Siege-like conditions prevent Tigray Region from returning to normal. The author argues that the federal government is engaged in "weaponized starvation" and "economic sabotage."
The International Crisis Group published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa."
A new war involving Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray Region of Ethiopia is palpable. It is gripped by rising tensions between the federal government in Addis Ababa, on one side, and the Tigray Region and its northern neighbor, Eritrea, on the other. Recent developments suggest they are getting ready for conflict.
Ethiopia Insight published on 17 February 2026 a commentary titled "Eritrea's Role in the Tigray Genocide" by Desta Haileselassie Hagos, Howard University and manager of the Tigray Genocide website.
The author argues that Eritrean troops joined those from the Ethiopian federal government to engage in a genocide against Tigrayans during the war in Tigray.
World Politics Review published on 16 February 2026 an article titled "In Ethiopia, a Slow-Burning Insurgency Takes a Dire Humanitarian Toll" by Jane Cybulski, a pseudonym for a journalist who specializes in the Horn of Africa.
The article discusses the humanitarian crisis caused by the ongoing conflict in Amhara Region between the Fano militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force.
Ethiopia Insight published on 15 February 2026 a commentary titled "Judging the Tigray Genocide Backwards" by Girmay Weldedawit, who now resides in Belgium, and Ella Atsbeha, who also lives outside Ethiopia.
This is an "in the weeds" analysis of what went wrong in the Tigray War. The authors take issue with the views of analysts such as Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 12 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.
The Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa is increasing its troop strength near Tigray Region indicating this may be a prelude to a military campaign. Eritrea is backing the Tigray People's Liberation Front and has troops inside Tigray Region. In the event of a government attack, Eritrea is expected to side with the Tigray Defense Forces,
Ethiopia Insight published on 12 February 2026 a commentary titled "Can a People's Pact Heal a War of Elites?" by Giday Amare, a public servant in the health care sector.
The author wants ordinary Tigrayans and Eritreans to come together at the people-to-people level in an effort to heal old wounds and overcome divisive actions of elites on both sides of the border.
Reuters published on 10 February 2026 a major report titled "Ethiopia Builds Secret Camp to Train RSF Fighters, Sources Say" by Giulia Paravicini and Reade Levinson.
The journalists report that Ethiopia is hosting a secret camp to train thousands of fighters for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group in neighboring Sudan. Located inside Ethiopia about 32 kilometers from the Sudan/South Sudan border, the camp had 4,300 RSF fighters undergoing military training as of early January. The recruits are mainly Ethiopian but also include nationals from Sudan and South Sudan, including from the SPLM-N militia that controls territory in Sudan's neighboring Blue Nile State.
Eight sources, including a senior Ethiopian government official, said the United Arab Emirates financed the camp's construction and provided military trainers and logistical support to the camp. Satellite imagery confirms existence of the camp and has also detected new drone operations in the vicinity. The camp constitutes the first direct evidence of Ethiopia's involvement in Sudan's civil war.
