African Arguments published on 18 August 2026 a commentary titled "Sudan: Burhan's Dialogue Is Not a Path to Stability" by Ezzat Khairi, Sudanese political analyst.
While not making an argument for the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, the author argues that any credible transition in Sudan must start with the departure from sovereign political authority of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. He has broken too many promises. Sudan's stability begins where al-Burhan's rule ends.
The Somali Public Agenda and Somali Dialogue Platform published in July 2026 a study titled "Navigating Political Transition: Citizens' Views on Elections, Legitimacy, and Governance in Somalia."
This study addresses how citizens understand democratic principles, electoral legitimacy, political mediation, and government accountability by means of a May-June 2026 public opinion poll conducted across Mogadishu and five Federal Member State capitals, reaching 928 respondents.
The analysis examines which democratic principles citizens prioritize, which actors they trust to mediate political disputes, which institutions they trust to manage or oversee elections, and which issues they want political leaders to communicate about more openly.
The findings show that citizens express strong support for democratic reform in principle, but their preferences become more complex when democratic goals are weighed against peace, stability, term limits, press freedom, and public participation.
Ethiopia Insight published on 12 February 2026 a commentary titled "Can a People's Pact Heal a War of Elites?" by Giday Amare, a public servant in the health care sector.
The author wants ordinary Tigrayans and Eritreans to come together at the people-to-people level in an effort to heal old wounds and overcome divisive actions of elites on both sides of the border.
Ethiopia Insight published on 19 November 2025 a commentary titled "Waging Peace in Tigray, a Land Haunted by War" by Mohammedawel Hagos, Worabe University.
As the Pretoria Agreement unravels, the path forward in Tigray Region is threatened not just by the tension but by a political culture still in the grip of a stifling party-state and collective trauma. The author calls for internal Tigrayan reconciliation as the only route to a peaceful future.
The International Crisis Group posted on 30 October 2025 a 33-minute podcast titled "The Trial of South Sudan's Vice President Riek Machar" with Alan Boswell and Edmund Yakani.
The podcast unpacks the charges against Vice President Riek Machar over his alleged role in a March 2025 attack on an army base in Nasir. It also discusses if there remains a viable path to avoid civil war in the country.
Ethiopia Insight published on 1 October 2025 a commentary titled "The Grammar of Aggression: Ethiopia's Culture of Confrontation" by Daniel Hailu, a multidisciplinary researcher.
The author argues that aggression and confrontation are a major feature of Ethiopian society. These characteristics eclipse behaviors such as cooperation, mediation, and restraint. As a result, force governs Ethiopian society.
The author concludes that "only by addressing the emotional, psychological, and cultural underpinnings of aggression can Ethiopia create the conditions for lasting social cohesion."
The International Crisis Group posted on 25 April 2025 a 25-minute podcast titled "Any Hope Left for Diplomacy in Sudan?" with Alan Boswell and Abdul Mohammed, long time follower of Sudanese issues.
The war in Sudan is effectively eliminating the concept of a Sudanese state. Sudan has been at war with itself since independence. Western Sudan is becoming integrated into the Sahel region and eastern Sudan is part of the Horn of Africa. One cannot rule out partition of the country.
What is needed now is a full-time mediation effort led by the African Union with complete bilateral and multilateral support. Sudan can be pieced together again because most Sudanese people want unity.
Ethiopia Insight published on 17 April 2025 a commentary titled "Strategic Pathways for Tigray's Political Transition" by an anonymous author with over 20 years of academic, non-profit, and government experience.
The author believes Tigray Region is at a crossroads in its political history. His comments suggest a pragmatic and strategic approach for Tigray's new leadership, focusing on resolving key issues such as power-sharing among factions, restoring territorial integrity, fostering diplomatic relations, and dealing with the complex socio-political dynamics in Tigray.
The South China Morning Post published on 28 January 2025 an article titled "China's Strategy for Peace in Horn of Africa Is Slow-going, But Will It Ever Reap Rewards?" by Jevans Nyabiage.
Questions remain whether China's emphasis on dialogue and development will ever bring peace to the conflict prone Horn of Africa.
African Arguments published on 6 October 2024 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Quest for a Seaport, Egypt and the Geopolitics of the Nile Basin" by Mohamed Kheir Omer.
This piece reviews the historical animosity between Ethiopia and Egypt, concluding that only renewed dialogue and mutual compromise can pave the way for lasting peace and stability in the region.
The Washington Post published on 8 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia's Controversial Quest for the Sea" by Ishaan Tharoor.
The article looks at the arguments on various sides of the controversial topic without taking a strong position on any side.
Reuters published on 20 December 2023 an article titled "Egypt Says Talks over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Have Failed - Statement."
Egypt issued a statement on 19 December that the latest talks with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) have failed, adding it would monitor the process of filling and operating the dam. Egypt said it reserves the right to defend its water and national security interests in case of any harm.
The Ethiopia Observer published on 15 October 2023 an article titled "'Securing Red Sea Access Vital for Ethiopia's Survival,' Abiy Ahmed."
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed commented that Ethiopia is seeking access to the Red Sea through purchase, leasing, or any mutual arrangement. He added that "if we don't find an alternative through dialogue, . . . it could be dangerous."
The Ethiopia Observer published on 16 October 2023 an article titled "Eritrea Says It Will Not Engage in Sea Access-related Issues."
The government of Eritrea responded that it is not interested in discussions about Ethiopia's desire for access to the sea.
BNE Intellinews published on 18 October 2023 an article titled "Somalia Rejects Ethiopia's Call for Negotiations on Red Sea Access" by Marco Cacciati.
The government of Somalia responded that while it is committed to promoting peace and regional integration, it is not inclined to grant access to a strategically significant asset like a port.
Somaliland.com posted on 22 October 2023 an article titled "Djibouti Rejects Ethiopia's Plea for Direct Sea Access, Joining Eritrea and Somalia" by Xamse.
The government of Djibouti rejected, albeit gently, the idea that it has any interest in granting Ethiopia guaranteed access to the Red Sea.
The South China Morning Post published on 24 April 2023 an article titled "Does China Have a Role to Play in Helping to End Sudan's Crisis?" by Zhao Ziwen.
China is in a good position to mediate the crisis between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, but until now has not shown any intention to do so. China has only called for an end to the fighting and a return to dialogue.
Channel News Asia in Singapore posted on 19 April 2023 a 13 minute podcast titled "Will Beijing Step Up to Broker Peace in Sudan?" with me.
Although the focus is on China and Sudan, the podcast also covers China's loan policy in Africa and African public opinion towards China and the United States.
The South China Morning Post published on 18 April 2023 an article titled "Violence in Sudan a Test for China's Ambitions in Africa: Analysts" by Jevans Nyabiage.
China has significant, albeit declining, economic interests in Sudan and stands with the rest of the international community to lose them. While China has called for an end to the fighting and encouraged dialogue among the warring factions, it has otherwise been surprisingly quiet on the conflict.
President Xi Jinping announced on 21 April 2022 a new Global Security Initiative (GSI) at the Boao Forum for Asia's annual conference in China. This nebulous initiative raised more questions than it answered about China's "new" security policy.
On 21 February 2023, China issued "The Global Security Initiative Concept Paper" that provided additional details about the initiative. Foreign Minister Qin Gang summarized the concept paper by noting it lays out 20 priorities of cooperation for "upholding the UN's role in security governance; promoting coordination and sound interactions among major countries [not identified], facilitating peaceful settlement of hotspot issues through dialogue; tackling traditional and non-traditional security challenges; and strengthening the system and capacity for global security governance."
Comment: There is relatively little that is "new" in the GSI, although several themes have evolved in the Xi Jinping era. It mostly brings together long-standing Chinese foreign policy principles such as support for state sovereignty, non-interference in internal affairs, multilateralism, dialogue, and opposition to sanctions. The concept paper underscores the centrality of Xi Jinping's "community of shared security for mankind" and support for the UN and African Union's peacekeeping mandate, peaceful coexistence, arms control, ASEAN-centered regional security cooperation, Africa-led counter-terrorism operations, UN-led fight against global terrorism, international security governance on artificial intelligence and outer space, global food and energy security, the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, and cooperation to address climate change.
China's goal is clearly to place security issues in forums where China has more influence or has established mechanisms where it has control such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the China-Horn of Africa Peace, Governance and Development Conference.
Eurasia Review published on 30 November 2022 an analysis titled "Ethiopia Needs a Peace Coalition To Underpin Its New Accord" by Tegbaru Yared, Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa.
The author urges the creation of a dialogue platform for stakeholders from Tigray, Amhara, and Afar Regions to build trust and inspire acceptance of the peace agreement.
Samuel M. Gebru, a Tigrayan, organized an hour long webinar on 4 November 2022 titled "Understanding the Ethiopia-Tigray Peace Process" with Alex de Waal, World Peace Foundation, Susan Stigant, US Institute of Peace, and Joshua Meservey, Heritage Foundation.
Some of the highlights of their remarks include that there is no perfect peace agreement. The will to implement the agreement is more critical than the signing of the agreement. There will likely be violations. Some of the terms of the agreement appear to be unrealistic. Eritrea was not part of the peace process and its intentions are not known; Eritrean forces were continuing military activity as of today. The agreement requires both sides to take into account the "situation on the ground," which implies that Eritrean forces must leave Ethiopia. There was concern that all of the negotiators were male on both sides of the table. Going forward, it is imperative in include females in the process.
The Mail & Guardian published on 2 March 2022 a commentary titled "Why Is South Africa Not Condemning Russia's Invasion of Ukraine?" by Richard Calland, University of Cape Town.
South Africa failed to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and is calling for dialogue to bring the conflict to a conclusion. The author asks if South Africa's position is being determined by a "principled commitment to political dialogue" or policy contamination by Russian interference.
