US in Discussion with Eritrea over Possible Reset in Relations

 The Wall Street Journal published on 22 April 2026 an article titled "U.S. Seeks to Reset Ties with Reclusive but Strategically Vital African State" by Robbie Gramer and Summer Said. 

The Trump administration is exploring ways to reset relations with Eritrea, beginning with the lifting of sanctions.  The administration's special envoy for Africa, Massad Boulos, first met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki late last year in Cairo.  

The US war in Ian has elevated the importance of freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, where Eritrea has a long coastline.  

US Offer to Mediate Nile Waters Dispute: Egypt and Sudan Pleased While Ethiopia Is Silent

 The International Crisis Group published on 21 January 2026 an article titled "Egypt Applauds U.S. Promise to Mediate in Deadlocked Nile Dispute" by Michael Wahid Hanna.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi welcomed the 16 January letter from President Donald Trump to mediate the Nile waters dispute involving Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia.  The mediation offer reflects Egypt's core concerns while giving little detail as to how Washington could broker a settlement.

People's Dispatch published on 20 January 2026 a commentary titled "US Re-Engages in GERD Dispute as Tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt Escalate" by Nicholas Mwangi.

The author notes that so far Ethiopia has not publicly commented on the most recent US offer to mediate the dispute.  

Comment: When the United States tried to mediate this dispute during the first Trump administration, Ethiopia perceived that Washington favored the Egyptian position and rejected the outcome.  It has little incentive for accepting US mediation in a second Trump administration.

US Role in Nile Water Dispute

 The Conversation published on 26 September 2025 a commentary titled "Trump's Dip into the Nile Waters Dispute Didn't Settle the Conflict--In Fact, It May Have Caused More Ripples" by Fred H. Lawson, Northeastern University.  

The author reviews unsuccessful efforts by the Trump administration in 2019-2020 to mediate the Nile waters dispute involving Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan.  He adds there is little indication that the current Trump administration is in any better position to solve the problem.  

Egypt's Response to Ethiopia's New Hydropower Dam

 World Politics Review published on 25 September 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's New Megadam Inflames Regional Tensions" by Jonathan Fenton-Harvey.

Now that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is operational, the author concludes that the chances of a direct military conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt are slim, but low-grade clashes could erupt in the form of a proxy fight.

Ethiopian Egyptian Tension in the Horn of Africa

 African Arguments published on 6 October 2024 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Quest for a Seaport, Egypt and the Geopolitics of the Nile Basin" by Mohamed Kheir Omer.

This piece reviews the historical animosity between Ethiopia and Egypt, concluding that only renewed dialogue and mutual compromise can pave the way for lasting peace and stability in the region.

China, Egypt, and the Arab World

 Modern Diplomacy published on 30 May 2024 a commentary titled "Egypt and the 20th Anniversary of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University.

The author believes China's relations with Egypt are at their best and reflect Beijing's growing partnership with Arab countries, especially on the issue of Palestine.  

China-Egypt Relations: Trade Down, Investment Up

 The Daily News published on 29 May 2024 an article titled "Egypt-China Trade Exchange Reaches $13.9 bn in 2023: CAPMAS" by Hossam Mounir.

China-Egypt trade declined to $13.9 billion in 2023 compared to $16.6 billion in 2022.  The 2023 trade balance strongly favored China, which exported $12.9 billion in goods to Egypt while it imported only $909 million in goods from Egypt.  Chinese investment in Egypt increased from $563 million in fiscal year 2021/2022 to $957 million in fiscal year 2022/2023.  

Somali President Mobilizing Support Against Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 Al-Monitor published on 23 January 2024 an article titled "Somali President Visits Qatar, Egypt Amid Row over Somaliland-Ethiopia Deal" by Beatrice Farhat.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has been visiting Eritrea, Egypt, and Qatar to build support for opposing the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland.  He appears to be making progress in achieving this goal.  

China and Egypt Dance Around Houthi Attacks in Red Sea

 Reuters published on 14 January 2024 an article titled "Egypt, China Stress Priority of Safety, Security of Red Sea Navigation."

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi met on 14 January in Cairo with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi where a major topic of discussion was the ongoing Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.  While both officials called for an end to the attacks and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, Wang emphasized that the UN Security Council did not authorize the US and UK response to the Houthi attacks and was even unwilling to name the Houthis as responsible for the attacks.

Comment:  China and, especially, Egypt have more to lose than the United States from a continuation of these attacks and disruption of commercial shipping in the Red Sea. It is surprising how tentative and even accepting China has been towards the Houthis.  

Ethiopia and Egypt Blame Each Other for Failure of Dam Negotiations

 The New Arab published on 20 December 2023 an article titled "Egypt, Ethiopia Trade Blame as Nile Dam Talks Fail."

Egypt and Ethiopia recently completed another round of talks in Addis Ababa concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.  They did not result in any significant progress and both sides blamed the other for the failure.  

US Policy in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 14 December 2023 a commentary titled "Don't Allow a Disastrous Collapse in Sudan" by Alex de Waal.

Alex de Waal, who is an expert on Sudan and has written extensively about the country for many years, concluded that "the U.S. government doesn't have easy options and is relearning that there's no such thing as benign neglect in Africa policy.  Shortchanging Sudan was shortsighted. At least the administration now recognizes that it needs to step up its engagement."

Comment:  The subheading of the commentary unfortunately reads: "Biden's benign neglect brought the RSF [Rapid Support Forces] to the brink of victory."  The idea that the United States is primarily responsible for what happens in Sudan is just not realistic.  Two factions--the Sudan Armed Forces led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo--are committed to taking control of all or at least most of Sudan and no single country, certainly not the United States, has the leverage to convince or force them otherwise.  They both seem quite prepared to allow the total destruction of Sudan before making compromises that would result in a cease fire, a return to civilian government, and the possibility of reconstructing a unified Sudan.  

China's Interest in Egyptian Ports and the Suez Canal

 The Middle East Institue published on 3 November 2023 an analysis titled "China's Growing Maritime Presence in Egypt's Ports and the Suez Canal" by Amr Salah Mohamed.

China is an increasingly important presence in Egypt's strategic ports and the Suez Canal.  The author warns that Egypt must weigh the potential downsides.  Egypt's financial vulnerability, relatively weak bargaining position vis-a-vis China, and the risk of domination all require attention.  

Prospect of Negotiations on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 The New Arab published on 7 August 2023 an article titled "Ethiopia and Egypt Weigh Future of Nile and Nationhood" by Lara Gibson.  

Egypt and Ethiopia announced they hope to negotiate within four months a solution to differences over Nile water and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam issues.  This may be an unrealistic time frame as many years of talks have failed and Sudan is preoccupied with an internal conflict whose outcome is far from clear.  

Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg

 The Eurasia Daily Monitor published on 31 July 2023 a commentary titled "Hollow Words and Apparent Setbacks at the Russia-Africa Summit" by Pavel K. Baer.

The author concluded that Russia offered "many pompous pronouncements" at the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg but Moscow can no longer bankroll friendly African regimes nor compete with China's investment in resource extraction.  

No Immediate Incentive to Negotiate Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Differences

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 11 July 2023 an analysis titled "Guardians of the Nile: No Interstate War, No Peace" by Natasha Hall.  

While further talks are needed to resolve outstanding issues concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, the timing for negotiations is not good, especially in light of the ongoing conflict in Sudan.  

Impact of Sudan Conflict on Egypt

 The New Arab published on 24 April 2023 an article titled "What Does the Fighting in Sudan Mean for Egypt?" by Lara Gibson.

The article underscores the importance of the conflict in Sudan for Egypt and its possible impact on Nile water issues such as the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia.  In recent years, Egypt and Sudan have tended to follow a common policy on the GERD.

Nile Water Talks Stalled

 Al-Monitor published on 27 September 2022 an article titled "Egypt Warns of Stalemate in Nile Dam Dispute."

Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have not been able to reach agreement on the resumption of talks concerning the release of water behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia.  

Russia Seeks to Justify Invasion of Ukraine in Africa

 The Associated Press published on 24 July 2022 an article titled "Russia's FM Visits Egypt, Part of African Trip Amid Ukraine War" by Samy Magdy.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in an effort to justify Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.  

Egyptian President Makes 7th Visit to China

 Ahramonline posted on 11 February 2022 an article titled "Egypt and China: A Strategic Partnership" by Gamal Essam El-Din.  

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi paid a 4 day visit to China in early February and met with President Xi Jinping.  This was al-Sisi's 7th visit to China since taking office in 2014.  The two countries have established a "comprehensive strategic partnership."

China, Egypt, and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 Al-Monitor published on 12 February 2022 an article tiled "Xi Reaffirms 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership' in Meeting with Sisi" by Hagar Hosny.  

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the margins of the Olympic Winter Games.  One of the items for discussion was the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.  According to the article, China continues to pursue a neutral policy on the issue so as not to irritate either Egypt or Ethiopia.