Somali Public Opinion on Somalia's Political Future

 The Somali Public Agenda and Somali Dialogue Platform published in July 2026 a study titled "Navigating Political Transition: Citizens' Views on Elections, Legitimacy, and Governance in Somalia."

This study addresses how citizens understand democratic principles, electoral legitimacy, political mediation, and government accountability by means of a May-June 2026 public opinion poll conducted across Mogadishu and five Federal Member State capitals, reaching 928 respondents.  

The analysis examines which democratic principles citizens prioritize, which actors they trust to mediate political disputes, which institutions they trust to manage or oversee elections, and which issues they want political leaders to communicate about more openly.

The findings show that citizens express strong support for democratic reform in principle, but their preferences become more complex when democratic goals are weighed against peace, stability, term limits, press freedom, and public participation.

Somalia/Somaliland: Text of US AFRICOM Commander's Interview

 This is the full text of the interview by Omar Faruk Osman, Secretary-General of the National Union of Somali Journalists, with General Dagvin R.M. Anderson, the Commander of U.S. Africa Command in Mogadishu and posted on 31 July 2026.

Most of the interview focuses on US-Somali cooperation in combatting al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia.  This is the interview where General Anderson also said, "there are no plans to build a base in Somaliland" and "U.S. policy is, and remains, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia.  That has not changed."   

US Steps Up Contact with Somali States and Somaliland

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Aaryaman Shah.  

The United States is pursuing an increased dual track engagement with local Somali governments in Puntland and Jubaland together with unilaterally independent Somaliland as it continues to recognize the sovereignty of the central Somali government in Mogadishu.  

Red Sea Security and US Policy

 The Congressional Research Service published on 21 July 2026 a brief titled "Yemen: Conflict, Red Sea Security, and U.S. Policy" by Christopher M. Blanchard.

In March 2025, the Trump administration designated the Iranian-backed Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization.  On March 15, 2025, U.S. forces began a military campaign against the Houthis which the administration said was intended to compel them to end attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.  The United States and the Houthis agreed to a truce in May 2025, which continues to hold.  

Video Critical of Russia's Engagement in Mali

 Warfronts posted on 6 July 2026 a 14-minute video titled "This Country Trusted Russia--Then It All Fell Apart" with Simon Whistler.

This is a highly critical account of Russia's Wagner Group and Africa Corps engagement with the Mali military in an effort to prop up the military government.  

US Tweaks Security Strategy in Africa

 Business Insider Africa published on 3 July 2026 an article titled "U.S. Military Outlines New Africa Strategy Built on Intelligence, Drones, and Local Forces" by Solomon Ekanem.

Speaking after the 2026 Africa Chiefs of Defense Conference (ACHOD) in Luanda, Angola, from 30 June to 2 July, General Dagvin Anderson, commander of U.S. Africa Command, said the United States is shifting its strategy in Africa to a focus on intelligence sharing, affordable drones, and African led operations instead of relying on large US troop deployments.

For background on ACHOD, see "AFRICOM Hosts Key Defense Conference to Discuss Security Opportunities."

Changing Geopolitics in the Horn of Africa

 The Rift Valley Institute recently published a report titled "The New Geopolitics of Eastern Africa."

The British Institute of Eastern Africa, Chatham House, and the Rift Valley Institute convened a group of experts to discuss the ongoing transformation of geopolitics in the Horn of Africa.  This paper summarizes their conclusions, noting that the region is experiencing profound multi-decade shifts in its relationship with the wider world.  

The Role of Masculinity and the Al-Shabaab Challenge

 The Royal United Services Institute published on 18 June 2026 a study titled "Masculinities and Violence in the Horn of Africa Borderlands" by Christopher Hockey and Claudia Wallner.

This paper reveals how masculinity norms fuel conflict, violent extremism, and gender-based violence in the Kenya-Somalia-Ethiopia borderlands, shaping al-Shabaab's recruitment and deepening insecurity.  It is based on interviews with experts and community members in two communities: one at the tripoint where Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia meet and the other at the Kenya-Somalia border on the Indian Ocean coastline.

It offers actionable recommendations for defense and security practitioners to address these interconnected challenges.  

US Counterterrorism Operations in Africa

 Eurasia Review published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "The Head of US Africa Command Testifies before Congress on American Counter-Terrorism Operations in Africa--Analysis" by Daniel Volman, director of the Africa Security Research Project in Washington.

This is a wide-ranging discussion of US efforts to counter terrorism in Africa.  It includes testimony in May before Congress by Dagvin Anderson, Commander of the U.S. Africa Command, and additional comments by other Trump administration officials.  The focus is on terrorist threats in Nigeria, the Sahel, and Somalia.  

US Africa Command Competes with Russia, China, and Terrorist Groups for Influence

 The Washington Examiner published on 20 May 2026 an article titled "US Competing with Russia, China, and Terror Groups for Influence across Africa" by Mike Brest.

Commander of US Africa Command General Dagvin Anderson told the House Armed Services Committee on 19 May that the United States is competing with Russia, China, and terror groups across Africa.  This is being done with a 75 percent reduction in the US regional posture over the past decade, a situation which is compounded by additional drawdowns by our allies.

Turkey Extends Economic and Military Influence in Somalia

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 7 May 2026 an analysis titled "The New Scramble: Turkey, Somalia and the Battle for the Red Sea" by Matthew Chandler de Waal.

Turkey has become Somalia's foremost ally.  Camp TURKSOM, Ankara's largest overseas military base, has trained thousands of Somali special forces since 2017.  More recently, Turkey became engaged in a major project to develop Somalia's deepwater oil reserves.

Turkey is now looking to build a base in the Gulf of Aden at Laas Qoray, a port city that is contested by Somalia and the breakaway government of Somaliland.  A base in Laas Qoray would put Turkey in position to join a host of other nations with military bases at the south end of the Red Sea.

China and Mozambique Expand Relations

 The South China Morning Post published on 25 April 2026 an article titled "China and Mozambique to Map Critical Minerals in Insurgency-Hit Cabo Delgado" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

During a state visit to China, Mozambique's President Daniel Chapo signed a wide-ranging joint communique dealing with cooperation on critical minerals, natural gas, and rare earths.  China also agreed to provide more support, not spelled out, for combatting an insurgency in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado region.  

Taiwan-Somaliland Connection Drives China's Support for Somalia

 The Conversation published on 15 April 2026 a commentary titled "China's Military Support for Somalia Is on the Rise--What Taiwan and Somaliland Have to Do with It" by Brendon J. Cannon, Khalifa University.

Beijing has promised equipment, training, and closer security cooperation with Mogadishu.  The author argues that China is increasingly involved in Somalia because breakaway Somaliland has established close ties with Taiwan.

Turkey Expands Influence in Africa

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 16 April 2026 an analysis titled "Turkey Expands Influence in Africa" by Liam Karr and Michael DeAngelo.  

Turkey recently advanced economic and security ties with Somalia and Niger.  Both countries now serve as Ankara's anchors for further advancing its strategic interests in Africa.  In the case of Somalia, Turkey has assumed responsibility for managing and protecting its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) while it helps rebuild the defunct Somali navy in exchange for 30 percent of EEZ revenues.

Chinese Military Equipment Finds Its Way to Al-Shabaab in Somalia through Kenya

Standard Digital posted on 10 April 2026 an article titled "Investigations Reveals Al-Shabaab Uses Cargo Firms to Import Military Gear from China via Kenya." 

At least nine cargo companies in Kenya are importing drones, military boots, VHF radios, and other equipment for transfer to the al-Shabaab terrorist organization in Somalia.

Garowe Online published on 9 April 2026 an article titled "From China to the Frontlines: The Secret Logistics Network Fueling Al-Shabaab Disrupted in Nairobi."

Kenyan authorities also disrupted a supply chain of military uniforms to a neighborhood in Nairobi for onward shipment to al-Shabaab in Somalia.

Why Russia is Losing Africa's Sahel

 Foreign Affairs published on 25 March 2026 an article titled "Why Russia Is Losing the Sahel" by Frederic Wehrey and Andrew S. Weiss, both at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

As Russia confronts shortcomings in its own capacity and the complexities of an environment it never fully understood, its expansion into the Sahel is on the verge of stalling, if not unraveling entirely.  Moscow's initiatives should serve as a cautionary tale for other African states contemplating whether to accept Russian security assistance.  This is also an opportunity for the United States to return.  

Russia to Send More Troops to Sahel Region

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 26 February 2026 an article titled "Sahel" by Liam Karr and Zoe Sommer.

Russia plans to send 1,000 more Africa Corps soldiers to Mali in the coming months, increasing Russian forces there to 3,500.  The Africa Corps may also send more troops to Niger.  Current Russian forces in the Sahel have failed to degrade the growing jihadi insurgencies in the region.

Yemen, Red Sea, and US Policy

 The Congressional Research Service published on 20 February 2026 a brief titled "Yemen, Conflict, Red Sea Security, and U.S. Policy" by Christopher M. Blanchard.  

This is a summary of U.S. policy during the Trump administration in Yemen and security issues in the Red Sea.  

US Ramps Up Airstrikes in Somalia

 Semafor published on 2 February 2026 an article titled "View/Why US Airstrikes in Somalia Are Reaching Record Levels under Trump" by Tomi Oladipo.  

The second Trump administration has launched 144 airstrikes so far against al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia.  That is more than half the number during all of Trump's first term.  

Deeper China-Somalia Security Ties

 China-Africa Security Radar posted on 1 February 2026 a commentary titled "China and Somalia Signal Deeper Security Ties--but Agency Still Maters."

Ever since breakaway Somaliland exchanged liaison offices with Taiwan, China has been an outspoken supporter of Somalia's territorial integrity and taken increasing steps to expand its security relationship with Mogadishu.