China-US Competition for DRC Copper and Cobalt

 Discovery Alert published on 8 October 2026 an analysis titled "Why China's Grip on DRC Copper Is Deepening, Not Loosening" by Muflih Hidayat.  

China's share of imported copper from the DRC, the world's second largest copper producing nation after Chile, climbed to 45 percent in the first seven months of 2026.  Chinese companies have spent years building vertical integration across the DRC's mining and refining sectors, controlling an estimated 70-80 percent of industrial-scale copper-cobalt production.  

The DRC this year banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrate, forcing more domestic value-added processing.  New smelter capacity in the DRC is largely backed by Chinese capital.  This has the effect of strengthening Beijing's position, making it difficult for American and European companies to compete.

Nevertheless, US imports of DRC copper surged in 2026, although it remains to be seen if the surge is durable and whether the Lobito Corridor project can change the nature of US-China competition in the DRC.

Western Mining Companies Can Compete with Chinese Companies in Africa

Reuters published on 25 September 2026 an article titled "Western Miners Can Match China's Speed If African Governments Cut Red Tape, KoBold  President Says" by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila and Oliva Kumwenda Mtambo.

California-based KoBold Metals says Western miners can match China's pace in developing critical minerals in Africa as long as governments streamline approvals and improve coordination among regulators.   

US Deal for Rwandan Tungsten to Decrease Dependence on China

Business Elites Africa published on 15 September 2026 an article titled "Rwanda Secures 25% Stake in Almonty Tungsten Venture Amid US Defense Shift" by Ikeh Ifeanyichukwu James.

China accounts for over 80 percent of world tungsten production.  The United States is trying to diversify its tungsten supply chain by financing a deal with a Canadian tungsten company and a new mining venture in Rwanda, which will hold a 25 percent stake in the operation.

African Copper and China

 Thierry Pairault posted on 7 September 2026 an analysis titled "African Copper and China."

China has become a major player in the copper industry.  China accounts for 48 percent of the world's copper refining capacity, while its mine production is estimated at only 8 percent of world production and it holds only 4 percent of world reserves.

Africa's two major copper exporters, the DRC and Zambia, already had duty free access to China for copper in all its forms.  China's recent removal of all tariffs on all African exports, except from Eswatini will not impact their export of copper to China.  The main obstacle facing the DRC and Zambia is their ability to meet demand, whether through extracting more copper or withstanding competition from other suppliers such as Chile and Peru.     

US Critical Minerals Policy in Africa

 The Global South Policy Hub, a Washington-based nonpartisan think tank, published on 17 August 2026 a paper titled "Aligning U.S. Critical Minerals Policy with Africa's Development Agenda" by Alaka Lugonzo.  

Africa holds about 30 percent of the world's critical minerals that power renewable energy technology.  Africa's critical mineral wealth is rapidly reshaping its relationship with the United States.  The author argues that current US mineral partnerships remain heavily tilted toward securing supply chains rather than delivering shared economic benefits.  

The United States has an opportunity to rethink its approach by moving away from extractive relationships toward transparent industrial partnerships along the lines of the African Union's African Green Mineral Strategy (AGMS).  A more sustainable approach would align US strategic interests with Africa's development agenda.

Comment:  While this is sound advice, China is a much larger importer of Africa's critical minerals than the United States.  It would be useful if some organization, particularly one in Africa, could offer similar advice for Beijing.

Bauxite and Iron Ore Dominate China-Guinea Trade

 The China Global South Project published on 28 August 2026 an article titled "China-Guinea Trade Is a Story of Bauxite and Iron" by Christian Geraud Neema Byamungu.

Chinese demand for Guinean bauxite ore and, increasingly, iron ore dominates trade between the two countries.  Guinea exports almost all of its bauxite and iron as raw ore and does not earn any added value.  It wants to reach domestic aluminum refining capacity of about 6 million tons by 2030 rather than continue exporting raw ore.  

Zambia Ends Raw Copper Exports to China and Elsewhere

 Business Insider Africa published on 27 July 2026 an article titled "Africa's Second-largest Copper Producer Curbs Raw Copper Exports and Makes Demands of Chinese Firms" by Awogbemila Temitope.

The Zambian government has restricted unrefined copper exports to force foreign mining and industrial companies to build local processing plants.  Chinese companies invest heavily in Zambia's mining sector and will be the most impacted by this policy change.

The US Role in Artificial Intelligence and African Mining

 The Atlantic Council published on 16 July 2026 a report titled "Artificial Intelligence and the Future of African Mining" by Anthony Carroll and Jef Karel Caers.

Colonial-era maps and infrastructure hinder access to the roughly 30 percent of global critical minerals in Africa.  AI-powered mining and mapping tools could help expedite discovery, reduce drilling time, and modernize operations.

The United States should develop "smart mining" partnerships with African countries that advance US security objectives while providing long-term dividends for African nations.  

Zimbabwe Shuts Down Chinese Lithium Company for Fraud

 Discovery Alert published on 16 July 2026 an article titled "San Ding Lithium Shutdown: Zimbabwe's $3.65M Mining Fraud Exposed" by Muflih Hidayat.  

Zimbabwe holds Africa's largest lithium reserves and Chinese companies have invested more than $2 billion in the lithium sector.  China's San Ding Lithium operated through the fabrication of receipts and invoices to disguise fund diversions.  Zimbabwe charged two San Ding Lithium officials with two charges of fraud and shut down the company.

China, the US and Africa Green Minerals Strategy

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 5 July 2026 a commentary titled "China, the United States, and Africa's Green Minerals Vision" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.

In 2025, the African Union adopted a continental policy framework called Africa Green Minerals Strategy (AGMS), which aims to turn Africa's critical and green minerals endowment into sustainable, value-adding industrialization that supports a just energy transition and regional supply chain integration.  

China has the processing capacity, investment scale, implementation speed, and institutional flexibility to advance African industrialization--but its commercial incentives run directly against allowing Africa to independently climb the value chain.

The US offers somewhat more transparent financing structures, stronger governance standards, and procedural models that on paper seem to better protect African states from debt traps--but it lacks the industrial ecosystem and the genuine political will to support African manufacturing rather than African extraction for American consumption.   

China's Role in Guinea's Booming Economy

 Ecofin Agency published on 22 June 2026 an article titled "Guinea Is Africa's Fastest-growing Economy: The Boom Is Real--but Narrow" by Idriss Linge.

Due mostly to the export of bauxite and iron ore, Guinea is Africa's fastest-growing economy in 2026 at 8.8 percent.  Guinea exports annually about $14.5 billion of raw materials; China is the largest importer at $4.5 billion.  

The risk for Guinea is a reliance on bauxite and iron ore exports, a lack of processing of these minerals at home, and the relative lack of intra-African trade.  A drop in commodity prices could severely damage Guinea's economy.  

Zambia's Reasons for Cancelling Major Human Rights Summit

 Just Security published on 2 June 2026 a commentary titled "In Addition to Chinese Pressure, a Backsliding Democracy May Explain Zambia's Decision to Cancel a Major Human Rights Summit" by Jane Munga and Steve Feldstein.

Days before 2,600 human rights defenders, technologists, and policymakers were expected in Lusaka, Zambia, on April 30, the Zambian government called off RightsCon, the world's largest conference on digital rights.  

According to the summit organizers, the cancellation was due to foreign interference from China "because Taiwanese civil society participants were planning to join us in person."  But a closer look reveals a more complicated picture linked to Zambia's democratic decline and more repressive policies.  

Chinese Finance and Critical Mineral Access in Africa

 Boston University's Global Development Policy Center published in June 2026 a paper titled "Development Quid Pro Quo: Chinese Finance and Critical Mineral Access in Africa" by Congyi Dai.

The paper explores whether China's development finance agenda is motivated by its global quest for natural resources, facilitating mine acquisitions in Africa.  It uses four data sources to examine whether Chinese development finance is tied to the pursuit of critical minerals.

The paper concludes that minerals needed for clean energy technologies such as copper, cobalt, nickel, and platinum group metals are associated with Chinese loan commitments to recipient countries.  Specifically, uranium is the mineral most strongly linked to Chinese development projects, particularly those including a substantial grant component and highly concessional repayment terms.

China, US, EU Competition for Critical Minerals in Africa and Latin America

Modern Diplomacy published on 21 May 2026 an article titled "Geology Meets Geopolitics: The Global Race for Critical Minerals in the Climate Transition" by Marta Rehnman, Trinity College Dublin.

China dominates the processing of critical minerals in Africa and Latin America.  Beijing has mining partnerships with 44 African countries.  But the United States and European Union are stepping up competition for unexploited mineral reserves in both Africa and Latin America.  

Will China Replace US in Fight against African Ebola?

 The New York Times published on 6 June 2026 an article titled "As Ebola Spreads in East Africa, Will China Step Up?" by Lily Kuo and Stephanie Nolen.

The United States is playing a much smaller role in combatting Ebola in Africa than it has in previous outbreaks.  China has made a modest contribution, but it is unclear how much Beijing is willing to do to help confront what could become the deadliest Ebola outbreak in history.  

Great Power Competition for DRC Critical Minerals

 Bankable posted on 7 April 2026 a commentary titled "Zijin, CMOC Back Competing Alternative to Lobito Corridor" by Pierre Mukoko.

China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation and four Chinese companies are financing a $1.4 billion project to rehabilitate the Tanzania-Zambia railway that will transport critical minerals from the DRC to the Indian Ocean port of Dar es Salaam.

The Tanzania-Zambia railway will compete with the American and European Lobito Corridor project that will transport critical minerals from the DRC to an Atlantic Ocean port in Angola.  

Chinese Buying Luxury Houses in Zimbabwe

 Bloomberg published on 3 April 2026 an article titled "For China's Rich, The New Must Have Is a Luxury Home in Zimbabwe."

Chinese companies have been drawn to Zimbabwe for its mineral wealth.  Increasingly, wealthy Chinese immigrants are paying cash for luxury homes in the capital of Harare, driving up housing prices in the process.  

Ethiopia Says It Attracted $13 Billion in Mostly Chinese Investment

Ethiopia's Institute of Foreign Affairs posted on 30 March 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's Investment Surge and the Strategic Repositioning of Addis Ababa as Africa's Diplomatic-Economic Nexus" by Kena Seyife.  

The "Invest in Ethiopia 2026 Forum" attracted over 800 investors from more than 50 countries and secured over $13 billion in investment commitments.  China's Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Ltd. committed to invest $10 billion in green ammonia and electrical equipment.  The article cautions that Ethiopia's success will depend on its ability to translate investments into tangible economic transformation. 

Comment: Ethiopia is facing several internal security challenges that must be addressed before this kind of investment actually materializes.  It will be important to monitor how many of these commitments valued at $13 billion result in completed projects.    

Why Russia is Losing Africa's Sahel

 Foreign Affairs published on 25 March 2026 an article titled "Why Russia Is Losing the Sahel" by Frederic Wehrey and Andrew S. Weiss, both at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

As Russia confronts shortcomings in its own capacity and the complexities of an environment it never fully understood, its expansion into the Sahel is on the verge of stalling, if not unraveling entirely.  Moscow's initiatives should serve as a cautionary tale for other African states contemplating whether to accept Russian security assistance.  This is also an opportunity for the United States to return.  

China Increases Lithium Investments in DRC

 Discovery Alert posted on 25 March 2026 an article titled "DRC Lithium Project: $1.4B Investment Transforming Africa's Mining Sector" by Muflih Hidayat.

China's Zijin Mining Group will have a 55 percent controlling interest in a $1.4 billion joint investment with the DRC government in a lithium mining project that will potentially contribute almost 5 percent of global mined lithium output by 2028.

The DRC project represents a paradigm shift in how international mining companies approach African mineral extraction.  Rather than focus on raw material export, this approach integrates downstream processing capabilities directly into mining operations.