China Facing African Mineral Export Controls

 Semafor published on 17 July 2026 an article titled "Africa's Mineral Export Bans Are Only the Opening Bid" by Yinka Adegoke.

China controls about 72 percent of global critical minerals processing capacity, giving it more leverage than the countries that produce the ore.

This has propelled a wave of resource nationalism in Africa as governments try to move up the value chain.  The DRC, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Gabon are tightening controls on the export of raw minerals in order to force more value addition at home.  

Namibia Signs 8 Cooperation Agreements with China

 Discovery Alert posted on 11 July 2026 an article titled "Namibia's Oil, Uranium & Lithium Strategic Partnership with China 2026" by Muflih Hidayat.  

The China-Namibia strategic partnership entered a new chapter in July 2026 when Namibian President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah made a state visit to China.  She signed 8 cooperation agreements that focus on green minerals, uranium, lithium, oil and gas, ports, technology transfer, and clean energy.

China, the US and Africa Green Minerals Strategy

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 5 July 2026 a commentary titled "China, the United States, and Africa's Green Minerals Vision" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.

In 2025, the African Union adopted a continental policy framework called Africa Green Minerals Strategy (AGMS), which aims to turn Africa's critical and green minerals endowment into sustainable, value-adding industrialization that supports a just energy transition and regional supply chain integration.  

China has the processing capacity, investment scale, implementation speed, and institutional flexibility to advance African industrialization--but its commercial incentives run directly against allowing Africa to independently climb the value chain.

The US offers somewhat more transparent financing structures, stronger governance standards, and procedural models that on paper seem to better protect African states from debt traps--but it lacks the industrial ecosystem and the genuine political will to support African manufacturing rather than African extraction for American consumption.   

The Sino-Moroccan Rapprochement

 The Torino World Affairs Institute published in 2026 a study titled "The Sino-Moroccan Rapprochement: An Analysis of Geoeconomic Convergence, Diplomatic Calibration and Media Narratives in a Changing Maghreb" by Bianca Pasquier and Imane Ezzehouany, edited by Amanda Chen and Leonardo Bruni.  

The study concludes that by deepening its engagement with China, Morocco is reengineering its agency and room for maneuver while maintaining its traditional ties with the United States and Europe.  China's economic presence in the Kingdom, albeit still limited compared to European and Gulf partners in overall investment terms, has rapidly expanded in industrial sectors critical for the green transition and the restructuring of global value chains.  

The Promise and Disappointment of China's Zero Tariff Policy for Africa

 The Daily Maverick published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "China's Zero-Tariff 'Gift' to Africa Could Be a Trojan Horse in Disguise" by William Gumede, University of Witwatersrand.  

China's new zero tariffs for African countries offer an opportunity to industrialize but it will only happen if they leverage China to build manufacturing capacity in Africa, transfer technology and skills, add value to raw materials, and secure Chinese financing for industry relevant infrastructure.  

China Forces Europe to Reconsider Industrialization in Africa

 Semafor published on 25 May 2026 an article titled "How China Forced Europe to Reconsider Africa's Industrialization" by W. Gyude Moore.

Chinese dominance in a number of industrial sectors is forcing Europe to worry that it may face deindustrialization and to rethink the need to support industrialization in Africa.

China-Africa Trade: Windfall for African Resource Exporters but Challenge for Others

 Ecofin Agency published on 20 April 2026 an article titled "China-Africa Trade: Windfall Gains for Resource Giants in Q1 2026, but a Deeper Structural Reality Behind" by Idriss Linge.

A small number of African countries--DRC (cobalt), Angola (oil), Guinea (bauxite), and South Africa (critical minerals) in the first quarter of 2026 captured the bulk of the gains in exports to China.  The deeper story points to a structural shift in how Africa is being integrated into China's global economic strategy.

The growing trade between China and Africa is driven by Africa's extractive sectors with limited industrial spillovers and constrained economic transformation.  Africa is becoming a critical outlet for Chinese industrial exports.  The key question going forward is whether African economies can leverage this situation to move up the value chain.  

China, Africa, and Cobalt

 Delaware-incorporated Farmonaut posted on 7 March 2026 a promotional piece titled "Cobalt Shares: China, Africa and the Global 2026 Refining Share."

In 2026, China will control over 75 percent of global cobalt refining capacity, although it mines less than 2 percent domestically.  Africa, especially the Democratic Republic of Congo, supplies more than 70 percent of the world's cobalt, but refines less than 5 percent of its own product.  This promotion looks especially at the use of cobalt in the agricultural and forestry sectors.  

Zimbabwe's Lithium Runs Through China

 Semafor published on 13 March 2026 an article titled "Zimbabwe's Lithium Upgrade Still Runs Through China" by Ray Mwayera.

Zimbabwe produced almost 10 percent of global mined lithium last year and provided about 15 percent of processed lithium in China.  Harare banned exports of raw lithium ore in 2022 and plans to prohibit exports of lithium concentrates by 2027, forcing companies to invest in local processing.  The companies building the lithium infrastructure in Zimbabwe are overwhelmingly Chinese.  This raises the question whether Zimbabwe is building an independent refining sector or simply deepening its role inside China's battery ecosystem.  

Major Study of Africa's Strategic Minerals

 The Lagos-based African Finance Corporation recently posted its "Compendium of Africa's Strategic Minerals 2026."

This is a major study of Africa's critical minerals, industrial minerals, uranium, and rare earths.  It also noted that China controls about 90 percent of global manganese refining, approximately 90 percent of rare earth separation and refining, and dominates battery-grade graphite processing.    

Nigeria Seeks to Maximize Benefits of Relations with US and China

 Nigeria's P.M. News published on 16 September 2025 an article titled "Beyond Dependency: US-China Trade Rivalry as Opportunity for Nigeria" by Emmanuel Yashim.  

Drawing on a thoughtful discussion of US and China relations with key countries in Latin America, the article emphasizes that the question for Nigeria is not which partner, the United States or China, to embrace but how to manage both relationships so they serve Nigeria's national development.  The article warns of the dangers of excessive debt and suggests that Nigeria's large trade deficit with China is unsustainable.  

China-Africa Trade Favors China

 The Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria published on 2 September 2025 an analysis titled "Africa-China Trade: Openness Without Industry" by Marvellous Ngundu.  

China has been the major contributor to Africa's trade imbalance for the past decade, and the situation could worsen as China seeks to sell goods previously destined for the United States to other markets.  In 2024, a quarter of Africa's imports came from China while less than a fifth of Africa's exports went to China.  Angola, South Africa, and the DRC accounted for more than half of Africa's exports to China, comprising mostly oil, cobalt, copper, ore, slag, and ashes.  By contrast, Africa has had a consistent trade surplus with the United States.  

Scenarios for China-Africa Trade During Tariff War

 Nanyang Technological University posted on 5 September 2025 an analysis titled "China-Africa Trade Scenarios Amid Global Tariff War" by Rafiq Raji.

The author identifies 4 China-Africa trade scenarios emerging from the global tariff war.  (1) China continues to sell Africa manufactured goods and buy raw materials, resulting in growing African trade deficits.  (2)  China has excess manufacturing capacity and uses Africa as a dumping ground for Chinese goods. (3)  African countries exchange higher Chinese investment in mineral extraction for more value-added manufacturing capacity. (4)  Chinese firms invest in the production of manufactured goods from extracted raw materials both in Africa as well as upstream processing that plugs into global value chains.

Fixing Africa's Trade Deficit with China

 The China Global South Project published on 24 January 2025 a commentary titled "The Persistent China-Africa Trade Imbalance--Is It China's Fault?" by C. Geraud Neema Byamungu.  

Africa continues to have a persistent trade deficit with China--$62 billion in 2024.  The author argues that Africa is structurally ill-equipped to rebalance the trade relationship and must build a strong, competitive manufacturing sector to move beyond its dependence on raw material exports.  For its part, Chinese companies can invest more heavily in downstream segments of African raw material value chains.  

Can FOCAC Meet Africa's Current Needs?

 The Institute for Security Studies published on 28 August 2024 a paper titled "Can FOCAC Adapt to Meet Africa's Long-term Needs?" by Jana de Kluiver.  

African countries need to rethink the future direction of the China-Africa partnership.  As the geopolitical importance of Africa increases, African countries must align their effort at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation with the African Union's Agenda 2063.  FOCAC's success will depend on its ability to adapt to shifting global dynamics while meeting Africa's needs.  

China Dominates Processing of African Minerals

 Atlantic Dialogues in Morocco posted an eleven-minute podcast recently titled "Control of Critical Minerals in Africa" with Amit Jain, director of the Centre for African Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

China dominates the extraction and processing of critical minerals from resource rich African countries, but the governments of most of those countries are failing to maximize the profit they could earn by negotiating for more processing to be done on the continent.   

US Responds to China in DRC and Zambia Re. Electric Vehicle Batteries

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 6 March 2023 a commentary titled "The U.S.-Zambia-DRC Agreement on EV Batteries Production: What Comes Next?" by Christian Geraud Neema Byamungu.

The United States, Zambia, and the DRC signed a MOU to facilitate the development of an integrated value chain for the production of electric vehicle batteries in the DRC and Zambia.  The MOU is seen as a concrete move to counter China in the supply chain of critical minerals in Africa.

It is, however, a nonbinding agreement and only expresses the interest of the three countries to work together.  It also depends on the US private sector to invest in the DRC.

Africa's Agricultural Exports to China

 The Geneva-based International Trade Centre published in November 2022 a major report titled "Enhancing Africa's Agricultural Exports to China."

Farm products constitute only 5.5 percent of Africa's exports to China, but they have strong momentum and even greater potential.  This report guides African farm businesses as they seek to trade with China.  Using International Trade Centre tools and data, this report is a blueprint for success for African businesses, setting out in detail which products have the best chance of competing in China.  

Industrial Parks and Free Zones in Ethiopia and Morocco

The Brenthurst Foundation published in January 2019 a discussion paper titled "A Tale of Two Free Zones Learning from Africa's Success" by Greg Mills.

The author concluded that to ensure the free zones are more than just sweatshops, Ethiopia and Morocco have demonstrated that the full package of policy issues must be addressed, including political stability, free trade deals, logistics to and through ports, integrated value chains, and tax and other incentives.

The Hawassa Industrial Park in Ethiopia was built by the Chinese Civil Engineering Construction Corporation at a cost of $250 million. It hosts 98 (mostly Chinese) enterprises, employing 14,500 Ethiopians and 1,100 Chinese. Morocco's development of a new port, known as Tangier Med, has three free zones in the port and two industrial parks at the nearby city of Tetouan. It is a $4 billion public investment concentrated on the port, purchase of the land, and construction of 50 kilometers of expressway.

2014 African Transformation Report

The Accra-based African Center for Economic Transformation (ACET) just published its 2014 African Transformation Report: Growth with Depth. 

Economic transformation is the consensus paradigm for Africa's development.  The impressive economic growth of many African countries since the mid-1990s--as well as the progress in governance and the turnaround in investor confidence--provides a solid foundation for transforming African economies for better jobs and shared prosperity.

By 2050, Sub-Saharan Africa will have a larger and younger workforce than China or India.  With the continent's abundant land and natural resources, that workforce can be a global competitive advantage and a great asset in driving economic transformation.

The report's main premise is that African economies need more than growth.  They also need to diversify their production, make their exports competitive, increase the productivity of farms, firms and government offices, and upgrade the technology they use throughout the economy.  All of this should be aimed at  improving human well-being.

This massive study contains the following chapters:

1:  Tracking Economic Transformation
2:  The State and the Private Sector--Partners in Transformation
3:  Promoting Exports--Essential for Transformation
4:  Building Technical Knowledge and Skills
5:  Leveraging Abundant Labor for Manufacturing
6:  Kickstarting Agroprocessing Value Chains
7:  Managing Oil, Gas, and Minerals
8:  Boosting Tourism