China-South Africa Supply Chain Issues

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 16 July 2026 an article titled "Beyond the Supply Chain: South Africa's China Dilemma" by Raghvendra Kumar.

The question facing South Africa is whether China's evolving supply chain diplomacy is designed to support Pretoria's fair and equitable participation or to reinforce Beijing's own geoeconomic priorities.  South Africa is China's largest trading partner in Africa, but it runs a large trade deficit with Beijing.  

The author concludes that South Africa's relationship with China will be successful only if Pretoria retains control over its critical infrastructure, strategic industries, and foreign policy choices.  

The Promise and Disappointment of China's Zero Tariff Policy for Africa

 The Daily Maverick published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "China's Zero-Tariff 'Gift' to Africa Could Be a Trojan Horse in Disguise" by William Gumede, University of Witwatersrand.  

China's new zero tariffs for African countries offer an opportunity to industrialize but it will only happen if they leverage China to build manufacturing capacity in Africa, transfer technology and skills, add value to raw materials, and secure Chinese financing for industry relevant infrastructure.  

China Adds Another Cooperative Program with Africa

 Addis Ababa's Capital newspaper published on 26 April 2026 an article titled "Addis Ababa Hosts Inaugural China-Africa Entrepreneurs Summit, with AU Calling for Youth-led Growth" by Groum Abate.

The African Union in Addis Ababa hosted the inaugural China-Africa Entrepreneurs Summit focused on trade, investment, industrial cooperation, and entrepreneurship.  Remarks by Ethiopia's president and the AU Commission Chairperson underscored the importance of yet another formal link between China and Africa.  

Africa, China, and Taking Advantage of the New Supply Chain Order

 B & FT Online posted on 16 April 2026 a commentary titled "From Participation to Positioning: Africa in the New Global Supply Chain Order" by Paul Frimpong.  

Africa is part of global supply chains, but its participation remains largely shallow, concentrated in low-value segments, and weakly embedded in broader production ecosystems.  China plays a central role in the current reconfiguration of global supply chains.

Africa risks becoming a site of production without becoming a center of value creation.  If Africa is to move beyond its current role, it must start with value chain targeting.  Industrial policy must be more coordinated and strategic.  Africa needs to become a single integrated market.

China-Africa Trade Increases, but So Do African Trade Deficits

 The Institute for Security Studies published on 2 April 2026 a paper titled "FOCAC Recycled: Preferential Access, Same Old Problem" by Marvellous Ngundu.  

Since 2000, Africa-China trade has expanded dramatically from less than $10 billion to over $348 billion in 2025.  Yet beneath this growth lies a persistent structural imbalance.  Africa's trade deficit with China has widened from negligible levels in the early 2000s to over $100 billion in 2025.

Beginning on 1 May 2026 China is implementing a zero-tariff policy for all but one African country in an effort to rectify this imbalance.  But the change risks entrenching existing trade patterns in which value addition occurs elsewhere.  As a result, higher trade volumes may not translate into more inclusive or structurally transformative outcomes for African economies.

The core issue is not tariffs, but industrialization.  Africa's trade position will only shift when it exports more manufactured and semi-processed goods.  China's duty-free initiative presents both an opportunity and a test.  It expands market access but highlights the limitations without the capability.

China's Manufacturing Transfer Not Benefiting Africa Much

 The African News Agency published on 16 March 2026 an article titled "Africa's Manufacturing Moment and Why It Keeps Slipping Away" by Chloe Maluleke.

Africa accounts for only 2 percent of manufacturing value added and 1.3 percent of global manufacturing exports.  As companies move manufacturing out of countries like China, North Africa is capturing some of the shift, but sub-Saharan Africa is largely missing out.

Africa continues to export raw materials and import manufactured products.  China's zero tariffs on African goods beginning May 1st are not likely to change significantly the structural problems of processing capacity, power shortages, and harmonized trade frameworks. 

What Africa Wants from China in 2026

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 16 January 2026 an analysis titled "What to Expect from Africa-China Relations in 2026."

The focus of the analysis is what Africa hopes to get from China in 2026.  In summary, Africa seeks to rebalance its ties with China concerning debt sustainability, value addition, and industrialization and to move toward a more equal and transparent partnership that prioritizes long-term African development.  Africa wants a strategic partnership aligned with Agenda 2063.

China-Africa Cooperation in 2026

 China Africa News published on 1 January 2026 an article titled "What's at Stake in 2026 for AU-China Cooperation?" by Cremilda Macuacua.

People-to-people exchanges, and training programs will highlight China-Africa relations in 2026.  There will be a focus on health care, food security, rural development, and expanded trade.

African Union Seeks to Harmonize Strategy with China

 The African Union posted on 1 December 2025 a news release titled "African Union Permanent Mission to China Convenes Strategic Retreat to Enhance Alignment, Coordination, and Implementation of the FOCAC Commitments and Agenda 2063."

The African Union Permanent Mission to China and the African group of ambassadors in China organized on 2-3 December 2025 a session to review the FOCAC Action Plan 2025-2027 and coordinate it with the AU's Agenda 2063.  The African side expressed a desire to focus on promotion of industrialization, mineral cooperation, infrastructure development, agricultural modernization, food security, and pharmaceuticals.

China and Russia Advance in Africa as US Narrows Interest to Critical Minerals

 Stimson published on 20 November 2025 a commentary titled "Trump's Critical Minerals Search in Africa Won't Tip the Scales Against China" by Mathew Burrows and Benjamin Weise.   

As the United States pulls back from Africa and narrows its interest to the extraction of critical minerals, China and Russia are expanding their engagement on the continent.

Ghana: European Parliament-China Trade Spat

 News Ghana published on 31 October 2025 an article titled "European Parliament Delegation Urges Ghana to Assess China Trade Carefully."

A 6-member European Parliament delegation on a visit to Ghana warned that China's trade policies could deepen trade imbalances and create dependencies that may not benefit Ghana's long-term development goals.  The Chinese embassy in Accra described the comments as false and misleading.  

China Ends Tariffs on African Imports: Implications for Gulf States and US

 The Emirates Policy Center posted on 24 October 2025 the English-language version of a study titled "China Exempts African Exports from Tariffs: Opportunities and Challenges for Gulf Countries."

China's decision to give full tariff exemptions for African exports could provide targeted benefits to specific sectors and countries.  Some estimates suggest the tariff exemption could increase African exports to China from $170 billion annually to $250 billion.  China's non-tariff barriers will continue, however, to limit imports from Africa.

Gulf state exporters may be able to re-export their products to China through Africa.  Higher tariffs on African goods imposed by the Trump administration combined with China's elimination of tariffs creates favorable conditions for China to expand its influence in Africa.

Comment:  While Beijing's decision should provide modest benefits for African countries, the fact remains that China has a significant trade surplus with Africa and this is not likely to change. Other than natural resources and some agricultural products, Africa just does not offer China exports that it wants to buy.  China's elimination of tariffs will not make African value added and manufactured products sufficiently competitive in the Chinese market.   

Zambian Perceptions of China, US, and Russia

 Afrobarometer published on 29 September 2025 a survey titled "Zambians Support Open Trade, Greater African Voice in International Affairs" by Edward Chibwill. 

A broader survey of Zambian public opinion includes an assessment of perceptions of China, the United States, and Russia.  Zambians expressed a 51 percent positive view of China's economic and political influence in the country versus an 8 percent negative view.  The ranking for the United States was 45 percent positive and 9 percent negative and for Russia 19 percent positive and 15 percent negative.  The remaining percentages were neutral.  

The percentage of Zambians who viewed China's influence on Zambia as positive in 2014 was 72 percent.  It declined to 61 percent in 2020 and 42 percent in 2022 before rising to 51 percent in 2024. 

China-Africa Trade Favors China

 The Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria published on 2 September 2025 an analysis titled "Africa-China Trade: Openness Without Industry" by Marvellous Ngundu.  

China has been the major contributor to Africa's trade imbalance for the past decade, and the situation could worsen as China seeks to sell goods previously destined for the United States to other markets.  In 2024, a quarter of Africa's imports came from China while less than a fifth of Africa's exports went to China.  Angola, South Africa, and the DRC accounted for more than half of Africa's exports to China, comprising mostly oil, cobalt, copper, ore, slag, and ashes.  By contrast, Africa has had a consistent trade surplus with the United States.  

Scenarios for China-Africa Trade During Tariff War

 Nanyang Technological University posted on 5 September 2025 an analysis titled "China-Africa Trade Scenarios Amid Global Tariff War" by Rafiq Raji.

The author identifies 4 China-Africa trade scenarios emerging from the global tariff war.  (1) China continues to sell Africa manufactured goods and buy raw materials, resulting in growing African trade deficits.  (2)  China has excess manufacturing capacity and uses Africa as a dumping ground for Chinese goods. (3)  African countries exchange higher Chinese investment in mineral extraction for more value-added manufacturing capacity. (4)  Chinese firms invest in the production of manufactured goods from extracted raw materials both in Africa as well as upstream processing that plugs into global value chains.

African Textile Exporters Turn to China as US Tariffs Take Hold

 The Diplomat published on 8 August 2025 an article titled "Amid US Tariffs, Africa's Fashion Industry Looks to China" by Laura Katia Machavane and Oluwaseyitan Oyewumi Adiat, both with Development Reimagined.

The sudden imposition of tariffs and suspension of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act by the United States have exposed the challenges of exporting textiles to the US.  Asia and especially China are becoming more predictable markets.

Ethiopian Sovereignty: How To Maintain It

 Ethiopia Insight published on 11 August 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Sovereignty Illusion: Who Really Pulls the Strings?" by Eyob Yohannes, data analyst in Ethiopia.

The author argues that true economic power in Ethiopia lies in institutions outside the country such as the International Monetary Fund.  He says the solution is reducing dependence on Western lenders and pivoting to alternative partners such as the BRICS, African regional banks, and South-South trade blocs.

Will US Tariffs Push African Countries Further into Arms of China?

 CNN posted on 5 August 2025 an article titled "Trump's Tariffs Are Sending African Countries into China's Hands" by Nimi Princewill.  

As the United States imposes tariffs on African countries, representatives of Nigeria and South Africa, the two largest economies in Africa, say this will only push African countries closer to China.  

Is US-China Cooperation in Africa Possible?

 The Asia Society Policy Institute posted this week a commentary titled "Avoiding Conflicts and Ensuring U.S.-China Cooperation in Africa: An African Perspective" by Abdeta Beyene, Centre for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation in Addis Ababa.

The author argues that the United States and China have the potential to move beyond competition and instead foster meaningful cooperation in Africa.  He suggests a number of ways that China-US collaboration could work to the benefit of Africa.

Comment:  The author is correct that there is the potential for US-China cooperation in Africa and a number of years ago there actually was some modest cooperation.  The prospect for US-China cooperation in Africa is dependent, however, on the existing Sino-American bilateral relationship, which has been severely strained in recent years.  Until there is significant improvement in the China-US bilateral relationship, there is almost no prospect for collaboration in Africa.   

What Canada Can Learn from China's Engagement in Africa

 The Conversation posted on 28 April 2025 a commentary titled "What Canada Can Learn from China on Effectively Engaging with Africa" by Isaac Odoom, Carleton University.  

To build meaningful partnerships in Africa, Canada needs a more focused approach grounded in robust research, sharper priorities, and an informed understanding of Africa's political and economic realities. 

 The author argues Canada can draw important lessons from China's engagement in Africa.  The "countering China" narrative pursued by the United States ignores African agency and fails to acknowledge that African governments want a choice of partners and do not want to be forced to select just one.  Rather than compete with China in Africa, Canada can fill gaps left by China.