The Institute for Security Studies published on 2 April 2026 a paper titled "FOCAC Recycled: Preferential Access, Same Old Problem" by Marvellous Ngundu.
Since 2000, Africa-China trade has expanded dramatically from less than $10 billion to over $348 billion in 2025. Yet beneath this growth lies a persistent structural imbalance. Africa's trade deficit with China has widened from negligible levels in the early 2000s to over $100 billion in 2025.
Beginning on 1 May 2026 China is implementing a zero-tariff policy for all but one African country in an effort to rectify this imbalance. But the change risks entrenching existing trade patterns in which value addition occurs elsewhere. As a result, higher trade volumes may not translate into more inclusive or structurally transformative outcomes for African economies.
The core issue is not tariffs, but industrialization. Africa's trade position will only shift when it exports more manufactured and semi-processed goods. China's duty-free initiative presents both an opportunity and a test. It expands market access but highlights the limitations without the capability.
