Scenarios for China-Africa Trade During Tariff War

 Nanyang Technological University posted on 5 September 2025 an analysis titled "China-Africa Trade Scenarios Amid Global Tariff War" by Rafiq Raji.

The author identifies 4 China-Africa trade scenarios emerging from the global tariff war.  (1) China continues to sell Africa manufactured goods and buy raw materials, resulting in growing African trade deficits.  (2)  China has excess manufacturing capacity and uses Africa as a dumping ground for Chinese goods. (3)  African countries exchange higher Chinese investment in mineral extraction for more value-added manufacturing capacity. (4)  Chinese firms invest in the production of manufactured goods from extracted raw materials both in Africa as well as upstream processing that plugs into global value chains.

The Pros and Cons of Diplomatic Recognition of Somaliland

 Newsweek posted on 9 September 2025 an article titled "This Aspiring Nation Wants to Be Trump's New Weapon Against China in Africa" by Tom O'Connor.  

The author examines the arguments for and against recognition of the breakaway Somaliland government, which now hosts almost a dozen liaison offices but has not been officially recognized by any country.  One theme in the argument favoring US recognition of Somaliland is that it would provide an ally for Washington in its competition with Beijing in Africa.   

Russia's Africa Corps Taking Over from Wagner Group

 Foreign Policy published on 3 September 2025 an article titled "Prigozhin's Ghost Haunts Africa Corps" by Christopher Faulkner, US Naval War College.

The Central Africa Republic (CAR) stands as the sole remaining foothold of the Wagner Group.  Its successor, the Africa Corps, is replacing it, but so far it has served as little more than a praetorian guard for autocrats seeking regime survival and deeper relations with Russia. Moscow has even asked the CAR to cut ties with the Wagner Group and sign a contract with the Africa Corps, which will pose serious challenges for Russia's policy on the continent.

US-European Lobito Corridor Project Not Aimed at China

 The South China Morning Post published on 23 August 2025 an article titled "'No Geopolitics Involved': Angola Rail Project Not Aimed at Countering China, CEO Says" by Jevans Nyabiage.

The newly appointed chief executive of the Lobito Atlantic Railway that connects the mineral regions of Zambia, the DRC, and Angola says the company has "zero geopolitical considerations."  The railway is a joint venture project backed by European companies.  The United States has pledged $4 billion to the project.  While often portrayed as the US response to China in the region, Chinese companies are expected to use the railway.

China-US Competition in Africa: Who's Winning?

 iStocks posted on You Tube on 15 June 2025 a 23-minute video titled "Africa Is Becoming the New Battleground: US vs China -- Who's Winning?"

There is a full-on competition between the United States and China for influence in Africa.  This is a story of power and leverage between Washington and Beijing.  The engagement models used in Africa by China and the US are very different. Beijing provides loans, construction companies, and often its own labor to build infrastructure projects across the continent.  They are fast and avoid political conditionality but add to African debt.  The US is transactional and wants to make deals by mobilizing the private sector.  But they are slow, and the private sector often has difficulty raising financing. 

For many years the US was the preferred partner of most African countries, but recent polls show that China is now the preferred partner.  Recent US policy decisions affecting Africa have also harmed its reputation as a reliable partner.  In the final analysis, Africans don't want to choose between China and the US, but they want the best deal they can get from both partners and others, including the European Union, Turkey, India, Japan, and South Korea.  

US, China, Africa, and Critical Minerals

 The Atlantic Council published on 6 June 2025 a study titled "Keeping China at Bay and Critical Minerals Stocked: The Case for US-Africa Defense Collaboration" by Alexsandra Gadzala Tirziu.  

Africa holds one-third of the world's known mineral resources, including 80 percent of platinum and chromium, 47 percent of cobalt, and 21 percent of graphite.  Of the 50 minerals designated as critical by the US Geological Service, 32 are found in Africa.  China accounts for 85 percent of global mineral processing capacity.

The US should help African nations develop their own domestic mineral processing capabilities to build their own self-sufficiency and to diminish China's lock on processing capacity.  This could contribute to a reliable supply source of critical minerals for the Unites States.  It could also strengthen US security alliances with African countries.  

Chinese and American Military Cooperation with Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 7 June 2025 an article titled "China's Increased Training of African Military, Arms Sales and Aid 'Concerns' US" by Jevans Nyabiage.

The United States is becoming increasingly concerned at the increase in military training that China is offering to African military personnel.  Coupled with growing Chinese arms sales and other military to military cooperation, it suggests Beijing has become more involved in African security issues.  

State Department Names Senior Advisor for Africa

 The U.S. Department of State announced on 1 April 2025 the appointment of Massad Boulos as "Senior Advisor for Africa."  He will make his first visit in this capacity to the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Kenya, and Uganda.  Boulos also serves as Senior Advisor to the President on Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs.

Responsible Statecraft published on 2 April 2025 an article titled "Trump Tasks First Time Envoy with the Most Complex Africa Conflict" by Dan M. Ford.

The article provides background on the conflict in the eastern DRC where Boulos has been instructed to seek a durable peace.  The author also notes that Boulos' son, Michael, is married to President Trump's daughter, Tiffany.  

Comment:  As "Senior Advisor for Africa," Boulos apparently is not filling the position of Assistant Secretary of State for Africa.  The Trump administration has not yet named anyone to fill the latter position.  The distinction between "Senior Advisor for Africa" and Assistant Secretary of State for Africa is not clear.  

Are China and Russia on a Collision Course in Africa?

 Foreign Policy published on 31 March 2025 a commentary titled "Are China and Russia on a Collision Course in Africa?" by Jessica Moody.

China and Russia, although committed to countering Western influence, have fundamentally different objectives in Africa.  China seeks political stability to protect and advance its economic investments.  Russia thrives on instability and insecurity on the continent.  The two countries typically do not work together in Africa but keep out of each other's way.

US-China Competition for DRC's Critical Minerals and Rebel Threat to Regime

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 19 March 2025 an analysis titled "Can the DRC Leverage U.S.-China Competition for Critical Minerals for Peace?" by Christian-Geraud Neema.

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi's strategy is designed to help the Trump administration secure access to critical minerals and curtail China's expansion within the mineral supply chain.  As the Rwanda-baked M23 rebel group advances from the mineral rich eastern DRC towards Kinshasa, Tshisekedi's top priority may be regime survival.  The advance of the M23 forces has complicated control over minerals in the eastern Congo and US-China competition for access to them.  

Turkey-Africa Relations

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 10 March 2025 an analysis titled "Turkey's Return to Africa" by Raphael Parens and Marcel Plichta.  

Turkey sees Africa as a core part of its global political and economic engagement and a source of support in international organizations.  Africa also provides critical raw materials and minerals for Turkish companies and markets for contractors, including Turkey's version of Russia's Wagner Group known as SADAT.  

US-China Engagement in Africa

 Brookings published on 3 March 2025 a commentary titled "US-China Engagement in Africa: A Crossroads" by Yun Sun.  

US-China competition in Africa could ramp up at an unprecedented pace during the Trump administration.  For their part, African countries will leverage their engagement with both countries for economic gains. 

China and US Compete for Africa's Critical Minerals

 The Stimson Center published on 28 February 2025 an analysis titled "Competing for Africa's Resources: How the US and China Invest in Critical Minerals" by Sydney Tucker.

China's approach to Africa's critical minerals is characterized by state-backed investments and a focus on securing long-term access to resources.  The US prioritizes private sector involvement and supply chain diversification to reduce reliance on China while pursuing clean energy, national security, and economic goals.  

Senator Cruz Meets with African Ambassadors: Focus on China

 The office of Senator Ted Cruz (Republican, Texas), Chairman of the Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health Policy, posted on 20 February 2025 a brief account of his meeting with African ambassadors.  

Countries represented at the meeting were Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Malawi, Ghana, Senegal, Djibouti, Madagascar, Zambia, Equatorial Guinea, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Gabon, Togo, Mozambique, Mauritania, and Ethiopia as well as the Representative from the African Union.  

Following the meeting, Cruz said he intends to use the chairmanship "to ensure that America's policy toward Africa is focused on advancing American security interests across the continent, with an emphasis on countering China's efforts to undermine those interests and conduct malign activities."  He stated that China's Belt and Road Initiative serves as a tool for the Communist Party of China "to lock in crushing debt and undermine the sovereignty of countries across the continent."  He added that the United States has a unique opportunity to expand economic ties with African countries.

Comment: Expanding economic ties with Africa will be a real challenge as the Trump administration dismantles the US Agency for International Development, one of its most important foreign policy tools for engaging with African countries. 

Can China Replace the West in the Sahel of Africa?

 The Conversation published on 10 February 2025 a commentary titled "Power Vacuum in West Africa's Sahel: 3 Ways China Could Fill the Gap as West Exits" by Abdul-Gafar Tobi Oshodi, Lagos State University.

As France and the United States pull back or are forced out of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Senegal, and Cote d'Ivoire, Beijing could take advantage by expanding investment in critical minerals, resolving the internal crisis in ECOWAS, and increasing arms sales in the region.  

US-China Competition for Africa's Critical Minerals

 The Atlantic Council published on 26 November 2024 a commentary titled "The US Won't Gain a Lead in the Competition for Africa's Critical Minerals Without Innovation" by Chris Moorman.

In order to compete successfully with China for Africa's critical minerals, it  needs to form partnerships with African countries that are economically feasible, environmentally sustainable, and ethical.  The only way to do that is by driving innovation along the critical minerals supply chain, specifically in processing and refining.

China-Africa Cooperation in Critical Minerals

 Development Reimagined published in November 2024 a study titled "Africa-China Cooperation in Critical Minerals: Centering Africa's Development in a Global Race."

Critical minerals account for almost 20 percent of Africa's total exports and contribute 28 percent of its GDP.  By 2022, critical minerals represented about 24 percent of China's total FDI stock in Africa.  Chinese mining companies account for 8 percent of Africa's total mining output and China ranks 5th in terms of mine ownership.  China has substantial stakes in Africa's lithium, copper, and cobalt mining projects--key minerals for EV batteries.  

It is essential that Africa develops strategies to protect and maximize the benefits from its critical minerals.  Despite the significant role mining plays in Africa-China relations, Development Reimagined says China should specify and enhance its commitments to the minerals sector to include geoscience and geology cooperation, research and development in mining technologies, human resource training, infrastructure development, value addition, and supply chain upgrading.  

Africa Policy in a Second Trump Administration

 The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune published in November 2024 a commentary titled "Africa in the Second Trump Administration" by J. Peter Pham.

Pham, who held key roles dealing with Africa in the first Trump administration, lays out several principles and what one might expect in the second Trump administration.  Pham will likely occupy an important position on Africa in the upcoming Trump administration.  

Is Africa Ready for China's Green Energy?

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in October 2024 a paper titled "Win-Win Green Partnership: China Is Capable, Is Africa Ready?" by Xiang Chen, Alex Benkenstein, and Steven Gruzd.

While China is positioned as a capable green partner, the success of the partnership depends on Africa's capacity to coordinate, finance, and integrate its priorities into the green development agenda.  The authors express concern over Africa's ability to respond.

US-China Competition Over African Minerals Ramps Up

 The US Institute of Peace published on 12 September 2024 an analysis titled "What Does the Emerging China-Africa Minerals Consensus Mean for U.S. Initiatives?" by Cobus van Staden.  

The US-led Lobito Corridor project in Angola, Zambia, and the DRC to improve transport for the export of minerals to the Atlantic Ocean would appear to be competing with China's recent agreement to finance the upgrading of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway with its outlet to the Indian Ocean.  The question for Africa is whether it can manage both relationships to its own advantage.