The Rift Valley Institute recently published a report titled "The New Geopolitics of Eastern Africa."
The British Institute of Eastern Africa, Chatham House, and the Rift Valley Institute convened a group of experts to discuss the ongoing transformation of geopolitics in the Horn of Africa. This paper summarizes their conclusions, noting that the region is experiencing profound multi-decade shifts in its relationship with the wider world.
The African News Agency published on 16 March 2026 an article titled "Africa's Manufacturing Moment and Why It Keeps Slipping Away" by Chloe Maluleke.
Africa accounts for only 2 percent of manufacturing value added and 1.3 percent of global manufacturing exports. As companies move manufacturing out of countries like China, North Africa is capturing some of the shift, but sub-Saharan Africa is largely missing out.
Africa continues to export raw materials and import manufactured products. China's zero tariffs on African goods beginning May 1st are not likely to change significantly the structural problems of processing capacity, power shortages, and harmonized trade frameworks.
The South China Morning Post published on 5 March 2026 an article titled "Africa Emerges as New Arena in US-China Competition over Artificial Intelligence" by Lucy Quaggin.
Africa is increasingly seen as a critical region for artificial intelligence development because of its population and economic growth. By 2050, one quarter of the world's population will be in Africa. American and Chinese companies are competing for the African market and support to set standards.
Modern Diplomacy published on 27 February 2026 a commentary titled "Africa's Rise: The 21st Century Story that Leaves Russia Behind" by Kester Kenn Klomegah, an independent researcher.
Russia has focused on a limited part of Africa. About 80 percent of its trade is with North African countries and South Africa. It has sent the Africa Corps to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. But it has largely ignored the rest of the continent.
The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in December 2025 a study titled "Building Resilient Cities: Environmental Protection and Construction Safety in Somalia's Urban Development" by Abdullahi Ali Mohamed.
The study highlights how unregulated construction, environmental degradation and intensifying climate shocks are reinforcing urban fragility amid weak institutional capacity. It outlines an integrated policy framework focused on sustainable urban planning, professionalizing the construction sector, and strengthening climate resilience.
Ethiopia Insight published on 17 November 2025 a commentary titled "From Tigray's Cleansing to the Red Sea: The Tyranny of False Numbers" by an anonymous author.
Ethiopia's military chief recently said that the "fate of 200 million" Ethiopians cannot be decided by "2 million" Eritreans over Red Sea access. The numbers used by the general significantly increase Ethiopia's population and reduce by half Eritrea's. The author suggests this is a demographic narrative intended to help justify taking Eritrea's port of Assab by force in order to gain access to the Red Sea.
TurningPoint, an independent, international, online magazine, posted on 29 October 2025 a commentary titled "Shaping Tomorrow: How China and Africa Are Negotiating a Shared Future" by Gaia Guatri, an independent documentarian.
The author takes a long look in mostly Anglophone Africa at the positive and negative role China is playing. She concludes that "Chinese capital has brought visible transformation: new railways, ports, and digital platforms; yet it has also incurred opaque debts, scarred landscapes, and fragile dependencies. With the world's youngest population, Africa stands at a crossroads: it can turn this engagement into a springboard for renewal or slide deeper into a cycle of extraction and imbalance."
Ethiopia Insight published on 12 September 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Federal Future Tested in Western Tigray" by Batseba Seifu, co-founder of GEMTigray.
Western Tigray has become the fault line that will decide whether Ethiopia holds together as a federal state, or fractures following the divisions left by the war between Tigray Region and the central government. This commentary focuses on history, cartography, and demography related to the issue of Western Tigray.
Nanyang Technological University posted on 5 September 2025 an analysis titled "China-Africa Trade Scenarios Amid Global Tariff War" by Rafiq Raji.
The author identifies 4 China-Africa trade scenarios emerging from the global tariff war. (1) China continues to sell Africa manufactured goods and buy raw materials, resulting in growing African trade deficits. (2) China has excess manufacturing capacity and uses Africa as a dumping ground for Chinese goods. (3) African countries exchange higher Chinese investment in mineral extraction for more value-added manufacturing capacity. (4) Chinese firms invest in the production of manufactured goods from extracted raw materials both in Africa as well as upstream processing that plugs into global value chains.
Foreign Policy posted n 19 December 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Precarious Economic Reforms" by Liam Taylor, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.
The author argues that Ethiopia's economic reform package is "fraught with jeopardy." Political instability and a history of foreign investors who have been burned in Ethiopia does not bode well for the program.
The South China Morning Post published on 14 October 2024 an article titled "Chinese Pharmaceutical Firms Expand to Africa under 'Health Silk Road'" by Jevans Nyabiage.
As Chinese pharmaceutical companies maximize production in China, they seek business opportunities outside the country, including Africa, which also has the world's fastest growing population.
Joseph Pisenti, an American YouTuber in Dallas, Texas, who uses the name RealLifeLore recently posted a 50-minute video titled "Why Ethiopia Is Preparing to Invade Eritrea Next."
This is a summary of Ethiopian history, demography, religion, and ethnicity leading up to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's expression of the need for landlocked Ethiopia to have access to the Red Sea.
Media in Cooperation and Transition with support from UNESCO published in October 2023 a report titled "In the Shadow of Violence: The Pressing Needs of Sudanese Journalists."
The report looks at the role of journalism and journalists as political upheaval, violence, and a humanitarian crisis rage in Sudan. It proposes recommendations for improving the situation.
The Conversation published on 13 September 2023 a commentary titled "Addis Ababa Faces Growing Climate Change Risks Like Heat, Drought and Floods, Study Warns" by Abay Yimere, Addis Ababa University.
Due to climate change, Addis Ababa will likely face increased heatwaves, extreme drought, and severe flooding in the future.
Foreign Affairs published on 20 September 2023 an article titled "Why the New Cold War Will Split Africa" by Brett L. Carter.
The second cold war is intensifying Africa's democratic recession. Beijing and its junior partner Russia are strengthening Africa's dictatorships and facilitating backsliding in democracies. Although the short-term dynamics favor China and Russia as partners for African countries, the long-term dynamics favor the United States.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published on 3 July 2023 a commentary titled "Peak China, a Declining USA and the Future of Africa" by Jakkie Cilliers, Institute for Security Studies in South Africa.
The Institute for Security Studies' African Futures and Innovation program has concluded that the next two decades will bring a more complex, multipolar and less Western world to Africa, one in which regional rather than global connectedness is growing.
If Africa wants to grow, reduce poverty and provide jobs for its large working-age population, it must trade and engage with China, Europe, and the United States and increase its relations with the emerging South on its own terms. Above all, inclusive growth in Africa requires global stability, particularly an end to the competition between China and the United States for influence on the continent. Europe steadily emerges as the swing region globally, moderating and bridging these global divisions.
The Conversation published on 10 May 2023 a commentary titled "China's Population Has Peaked and Is Now Falling--Opportunities and Risks for Africa" by Lauren Johnston.
India is expected to replace China this year as the world's most populous nation as China's population declines. African countries with a large working-age population may benefit from the end of China's period of labor-abundance. Africa will be in competition, however, with countries such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
The South African Institute for International Affairs published in March 2023 a study titled "China's Demographic Peak: Lessons and Prospects for Africa" by Lauren A. Johnston.
Africa and China each number about 1.4 billion people (17 percent each of the global population), but Africa's population is on the rise and China's on the decline. By 2100, Africa's population may comprise almost 38 percent of the world's population and China's a little more than 7 percent. This paper looks at the impact of these demographic trends on the economies of China and Africa.
The London-based Al Majalla, owned by the Saudi Research and Media Group, published on 28 February 2023 a commentary titled "US-China Competition in Africa Heats Up with Beijing in the Lead" by Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy.
The author concludes that the US maintains an historical advantage in North Africa, but China is rapidly catching up. On the other hand, China has become the dominant player in Sub-Sahara Africa with the US playing catch up.
The US Institute of Peace published on 1 February 2023 a commentary titled "Four Takeaways from Treasury Secretary Yellen's Trip to Africa" by Edward A. Burrier.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's 10-day trip to Senegal, Zambia, and South Africa resulted in the following 4 takeaways:
--Because of its young population, the United States recognizes that "Africa will shape the trajectory of the world economy over the next century."
--Zambia's debt crisis has far-reaching implications and China is a "barrier" to resolving it.
--Energy transitions in countries like South Africa, which use considerable coal, will be challenged by vested political interests.
--Ending Russia's war on Ukraine is the single best way to help Africa's economies.
