China's Population Decline and Africa

 The Conversation published on 10 May 2023 a commentary titled "China's Population Has Peaked and Is Now Falling--Opportunities and Risks for Africa" by Lauren Johnston.  

India is expected to replace China this year as the world's most populous nation as China's population declines.  African countries with a large working-age population may benefit from the end of China's period of labor-abundance.  Africa will be in competition, however, with countries such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam.  

Zambian Officials and Chinese Businessmen Illegally Export Rosewood to China

The Environmental Investigation Agency recently published a report titled "Mukula Cartel: How Timber Tafficking Networks Plunder Zambian Forests."

Senior Zambian officials have reportedly orchestrated and facilitated massive trafficking operations that are driving mukula rosewood trees to the edge of commercial extinction, devastating vulnerable forests, and threatening communities' livelihoods. The State-owned company Zambia Forestry and Forest Industries Corporation Limited (ZAFFICO) is secretly used as a cover for well-connected Zambian officials and Chinese business operators to export thousands of mukula logs, despite a ban on their export. The overwhelming majority of the logs goes to China. This expose quotes Chinese entrepreneurs who engage in bribery to facilitate the exports.

China Cracks Down on Importation of Endangered Species

The Institute for Security Studies published on 19 August 2019 a commentary titled "China Is Proving Key To Reducing Africa's Wildlife Trafficking" by Duncan E. Omondi Gumba and Richard Chelin.

China's crackdown on the importation of ivory and processing of rhino horns has reduced the illegal trafficking from Africa. The problem has also moved increasingly from East and Southern Africa to West Africa.

China Set To Cash In on African Free Trade Agreement

China Briefing posted on 27 May 2019 a commentary titled "China Set to Cash in on New African Free Trade Agreement" by Chris Devonshire-Ellis.

China has been pushing low-end manufacturing out of China and into lower-cost southeast Asian markets such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia. As these markets become higher cost and/or saturated, the author argues that this manufacturing capacity will increasingly move to Africa. Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement will contribute positively to this process.

Comparing Ethiopia and Vietnam's Special Economic Zones

The China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies published in April 2019 a paper titled "Lessons from East Asia: Comparing Ethiopia and Vietnam's Early-Stage Special Economic Zone Development" by Keyi Tang.

The paper compares how Ethiopia and Vietnam have learned from East Asian countries' experiences in developing their own special economic zones (SEZs). A Chinese and a Taiwanese overseas SEZ were the first SEZs developed respectively in Ethiopia and in Vietnam, which provided lessons for domestic policymakers on how to better improve the legal and institutional framework, infrastructure, and administrative services needed for SEZ development.

China, Africa, and the Pangolin Trade

The Washington Post published on 21 July 2018 an article titled "China's Push to Export Traditional Medicine May Doom the Magical Pangolin" by Simon Denyer.

The pangolin is the world's most trafficked mammal. A million of them are thought to have been poached from the wild in Asia and Africa in just a decade. Trade in the eight species of pangolin is illegal. Demand for them comes primarily from China and Vietnam, where the scales of the pangolin are used in traditional medicine. As a result, the pangolin is fast disappearing from the jungles of Asia and, increasingly, from Africa.

TRAFFIC published in December 2017 a study of pangolin trafficking titled "The Global Trafficking of Pangolins: A Comprehensive Summary of Seizures and Trafficking Routes from 2010-2015."

The report noted that large quantity pangolin shipments come from Cameroon, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Guinea and Kenya. The primary African countries through which pangolins are trafficked are Nigeria, Cameroon, Guinea, Liberia, Equatoriak Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, and Togo.

Africans Moving from China to Vietnam?

VN Express International published on 8 May 2018 an article titled "Rising Costs in China Make African Entrepreneurs Look To Vietnam" by Mi Na.

The number of Africans living in Guangzhou, China, has been dropping due to the rising cost of living and visa issues. Some are looking to move to markets in Vietnam, India, and Cambodia.

Ivory Market Shifts to Laos and Chinese Buyers

Nairobi-based Save the Elephants just published a report titled "The Ivory Trade of Laos: Now the Fastest Growing in the World" by Lucy Vigne and Esmond Martin.

Now that China is phasing out the legal sale of ivory, the retail business has moved to Laos where many of the shops are owned by traders from China. Chinese buy more than 80 percent of the ivory being sold in Laos. There are also a few buyers from South Korea and other Asian countries.

Rhino Horn Smuggling to China and Vietnam

The Elephant Action League published in July 2017 a report titled "Grinding Rhino: An Undercover Investigation on Rhino Horn Trafficking in China and Vietnam" by Andrea Crosta, Kimberly Sutherland, and Chiara Talerico.

Continued consumer demand for rhino horn in China and Vietnam has created economic incentives for, and a resurgence of, poaching and trafficking in African countries. The report provides information on the rhino horn black market in China and how rhino horn is smuggled from Vietnam to China and then sold and distributed in China.

Decimation of African Rhinos and the Illegal Asian Trade

The October 2016 issue of National Geographic published an article titled "Deadly Trade" by Bryan Christy and Brent Stirton.

The article documents the decimation of the African rhino population in order to export illegally rhino horn primarily to China and Vietnam where it is a popular but ineffective medicine and hangover cure. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are no longer significant consumers of rhino horn. About 98 percent of Africa's black and white rhinos are found in South Africa, Namibia, Kenya, and Zimbabwe.

East Asian Networks Smuggle African Ivory

The BBC published on 7 July 2016 a story titled "East Asian Networks 'Smuggle Ivory across Africa'" by Navin Singh Khadka. Drawing on a lengthy report by the NGO Traffic, the article emphases the role of East Asian gangs in the killing of about 30,000 African elephants annually for their ivory.

Public Opinion on African Economies

The Pew Research Center published on 23 July 2015 an analysis of public opinion titled "Global Publics: Economic Conditions Are Bad."  It concluded that the most optimistic economic prospects for the next generation are the Vietnamese (91%), Chinese (88%), Nigerians (84%), and Ethiopians (84%).  Among "emerging African countries" the economy is perceived as doing best in South Africa and Nigeria.  Among "developing African countries" the economy is perceived as doing best in Ethiopia (89%), Senegal (60%), Tanzania (48%), Kenya (47%), Burkina Faso (44%), and Uganda (44%).

10 Most Censored Countries: Horn Fares Poorly

The Committee to Protect Journalists released in April 2015 its list of 10 most censored countries.  The Horn of Africa fared poorly.  Eritrea was at the top of the list and Ethiopia in number four position.  Others on the list were North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Vietnam, Iran, China, Myanmar, and Cuba.

Asian Investment and Africa's Textile Industry

The Center for Global Policy at Carnegie-Tsinghua published on 5 August 2014 a study titled "The Impact of Asian Investment on Africa's Textile Industries" by Tang Xiaoyang, resident scholar at Carnegie-Tsinghua.  The author argues that as African countries seek to industrialize and build indigenous cotton-textile-apparel value chains, the interactions between Asian, primarily Chinese, investors and African companies become more complex.  Asian investors present both a challenge to an opportunity for local industries.

Emerging Powers in Africa

Click here to read an updated version of my paper titled "Emerging Powers in Africa." I have presented this paper over the last several years at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University in Washington. I presented this version on 13 September 2012.

Involvement of non-Western states in Africa

I presented remarks today at the National Defense University in Washington on the involvement of non-western states in Africa. My analysis looked at China, India, Brazil, Russia, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam.

The bottom line is that the playing field in Africa has become much more crowded. A growing number of non-western nations are intensifying their contact with African countries. As the United States and the West generally pursue their own interests on the continent, they will have to take account of this significant new development. You can read the text of the remarks here.

Involvement of Non-Western States in Africa