Need for a US Indian Ocean Strategy

 Foreign Affairs published on 7 April 2025 a commentary titled "America Needs a Real Indian Ocean Strategy" by Arzan Tarapore, Stanford University.  

Chinese submarine activity will soon surpass India's ability to counter it in the Indian Ocean and India is ill equipped to offset China's growing naval presence.  India's contributions to regional security are significant, but they will be dwarfed by what it will take to counter China's increasing naval capacity.

The author calls on the United States to craft a comprehensive strategy for the Indian Ocean because within a decade an expanding Chinese naval presence will be able to imperil global shipping lanes, extract more resources from countries in the region, and project force far beyond its current ability.  The focus of this US strategy should be building collective military power.     

Where US Foreign Aid Is Being Eliminated

 The New York Times published on 21 February 2025 an article titled "'We Are Seeing Complete Destruction': The Damage Done by U.S.A.I.D. Freeze" by Jeremy Konyndyk, president of Refugees International.  

The author comments that the Trump administration appears to be engaged in an effort to "almost entirely eliminate foreign aid programs."  He then summarizes programs around the world that will disappear if this initiative is allowed to go forward by the courts and Congress.  

Competition for Africa's Strategic Minerals

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 15 August 2024 an analysis titled "Maximizing the Benefits of the Renewed Global Interest in Africa's Strategic Minerals" by Folashade Soule.

China is far ahead in building supply chains for Africa's cobalt, rare earth minerals, lithium, and several other metals and minerals.  Chinese companies are willing to take greater risks than their Western counterparts and adapt quickly to low environmental standards.

China's Population Decline and Africa

 The Conversation published on 10 May 2023 a commentary titled "China's Population Has Peaked and Is Now Falling--Opportunities and Risks for Africa" by Lauren Johnston.  

India is expected to replace China this year as the world's most populous nation as China's population declines.  African countries with a large working-age population may benefit from the end of China's period of labor-abundance.  Africa will be in competition, however, with countries such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam.  

Comparing China's Coal-powered Plants in Zimbabwe and Indonesia

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in December 2021 a policy briefing titled "China-Driven Coal Power: Lessons from Zimbabwe and Indonesia" by Xue Gong and Cobus van Staden.

The paper compares Chinese funded and built coal electricity projects in Indonesia and Zimbabwe.  Whereas Indonesia has managed to limit the environmental impacts of coal electricity to some extent, the same is not true for Zimbabwe.  The technology and mitigation measures were much more advanced in Indonesia than in Zimbabwe.  Nor was socio-economic mitigation high on the agenda in the case of Zimbabwe.  Chinese firms in Zimbabwe seemed to respond to low levels of  Zimbabwe government standard setting and high levels of secrecy.  

Lessons from China's Rail Project in Kenya

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published on 28 January 2022 a policy briefing titled "China-Driven Rail Development: Lessons from Kenya and Indonesia" by Oscar M. Otele, Guanie Lim, and Ana Alvesis.  

The paper examines the environmental, socio-economic and governance impacts of Chinese rail projects in Kenya and Indonesia.  It demonstrates some of the challenges facing Chinese rail provision in the global South, especially how weak recipient institutions can compound reputational risk.

China Set To Cash In on African Free Trade Agreement

China Briefing posted on 27 May 2019 a commentary titled "China Set to Cash in on New African Free Trade Agreement" by Chris Devonshire-Ellis.

China has been pushing low-end manufacturing out of China and into lower-cost southeast Asian markets such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia. As these markets become higher cost and/or saturated, the author argues that this manufacturing capacity will increasingly move to Africa. Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement will contribute positively to this process.

Somalia: Good News on Piracy

The New York Times published on 17 September 2016 an article titled "Southeast Asia Replaces Africa as the World's Hotbed of Piracy" by Joe Cochrane.

The article reports that in 2015 there were 178 pirate attacks in Southeast Asia and NONE in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea Region near Somalia. When it comes to good news, it is not often that we can celebrate Somalia. This is a case where major progress has been made.

Africa's Changing Partnerships over the Next Decade

The Institute for Defense Analyses, National Intelligence University, and Office of the Director of National Intelligence hosted a conference at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. on 7 June 2016 titled "The United States and Africa: Looking toward the Next Decade." I gave a presentation on "Africa's Changing Partnerships over the Next Decade." It focused on Africa's present and future trade, aid, investment, and security relationships with partner countries.

China, India, Brazil, and the Indian Ocean

The Diplomatist published in July 2015 an article titled "Changing Security Environment in the Indian Ocean: Re-looking the Effectiveness of Existing Regional and Sub-Regional Initiatives" by Francis Kornegay, University of South Africa.

The article discusses the prospects for cooperation in the Indian Ocean by IBSA members India, Brazil, and South Africa in view of China's leadership of the BRICS.

Emerging Power Strategies for the Indian Ocean

The South African Institute for International Affairs published in June 2015 a study titled "Silk, Cinnamon and Cotton: Emerging Power Strategies for the Indian Ocean and the Implications for Africa" by Chris Alden and Elizabeth Sidiropoulos.

The authors analyze the interests of China, India, Indonesia, and South Africa in the Indian Ocean and offer recommendations for South Africa and the rest of Africa.