China in Al-Qaeda's Crosshairs

 War on the Rocks published on 18 February 2026 an analysis titled "China Now Finds Itself in Al-Qaeda's Crosshairs" by Colin Clarke and Lucas Webber, both with the Soufan Center.

Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations in the Arabian Gulf and Africa are now including China as part of its enemy hierarchy due in large part to Beijing's treatment of the Muslim Uyghur population in Xinjiang Province.  

USAID Dismantled and Children Die

 The Associated Press published on 16 May 2025 an article titled "Children Die as USAID Cuts Snap a Lifeline for the World's Most Malnourished" by Taiwo Adebayo.

Drawing on a program implemented by Mercy Corps in Nigeria to feed malnourished children, the article documents the damage caused by dismantling USAID.  It also looks at the closure of global programs administered by Helen Keller International.  

The Negative Impact of Whacking Foreign Aid

 The Washington Post published on 2 May 2025 an article titled "After 100 Days, the Toll of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts Has Begun to Sink In" by Sammy Westfall.

The Trump administration has axed more than 80 percent of the programs funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.  The administration is also in the process of slashing the U.S. African Development Foundation, U.S. Institute of Peace, Inter-American Foundation, and Millennium Challenge Corporation.  

The article looks at the impact of these cuts on South Sudan, Ethiopia, Jordan, Tanzania, Eswatini, Lesotho, Afghanistan, and Yemen.  

Comment:  The administration is getting close to ending government-funded soft power, which has traditionally been a major U.S. foreign policy tool.  Although they will not fill the financial void left by the United States, the governments of China and Russia will take very possible advantage of America's departure from these programs.   

The Trump Administration Reverses Course and Reinstates Food Aid Programs in Six Countries

 Reuters published on 8 April 2025 an article titled "Trump Administration Moves to Restore Some Terminated Foreign Aid Programs, Sources Say" by Jonathan Landay, Daphne Psaledakis, and Humeyra Pamuk.  

The Trump administration reinstated at least 6 recently cancelled US foreign aid programs for emergency food assistance following pressure from inside the administration and from Congress.  The reversal allows food aid programs to continue in Somalia, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Jordan, and Ecuador.

USAID's Door Closing Quickly

 The Washington Post published on 7 April 2025 an article titled "Marco Rubio Said He'd Protect Lifesaving Aid Overseas.  DOGE Disagreed" by Annie Gowen.

USAID's new 28-year-old deputy administrator from the DOGE team has ordered the termination of key medical and emergency assistance work across Africa and the Middle East.  His order seems to contradict Secretary of State Marco Rubio's promise to continue lifesaving USAID programs.  

Where US Foreign Aid Is Being Eliminated

 The New York Times published on 21 February 2025 an article titled "'We Are Seeing Complete Destruction': The Damage Done by U.S.A.I.D. Freeze" by Jeremy Konyndyk, president of Refugees International.  

The author comments that the Trump administration appears to be engaged in an effort to "almost entirely eliminate foreign aid programs."  He then summarizes programs around the world that will disappear if this initiative is allowed to go forward by the courts and Congress.  

Fate of Islamic State Branch Operation in Puntland, Somalia

 The Royal United Services Institute published on 20 March 2023 an article titled "Out of Africa: Financial Networks of  Islamic State 2.0" by Edmund Fitton-Brown.  

An Islamic State (IS) branch office located in Puntland, Somalia and headed by Bilal al-Sudani coordinated IS affiliates in Mozambique and the DRC and supplied funding to IS in Afghanistan.  In January 2023, US Special Forces killed al-Sudani and nine associates.  It remains to be seen if the operation in Puntland will regenerate.  

Somalia and Ethiopia Head International Rescue Committee's Worst Crises for 2023

 The International Rescue Committee published on 14 December 2022 "The Top 10 Crises the World Can't Ignore in 2023."  The list provides an explanation why each country was included.

The International Rescue Committee's list of the world's 10 worst crises for 2023 is headed by Somalia and followed by Ethiopia.  Other African countries in the top 10 are the Democratic Republic of Congo (4), South Sudan (7), and Burkina Faso (8).  The world's top 10 is rounded out with Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, Haiti, and Ukraine.

Oxfam's Worst Climate Hotspots Mostly in Africa

 Oxfam published on 16 September 2022 a report titled "Hunger in a Heating World: How the Climate Crisis Is Fuelling Hunger in an Already Hungry World."

Climate change is fueling hunger for millions of people around the world.  Oxfam looked at 10 of the worst affected "climate hotspots"--those countries with the most recurring UN humanitarian appeals in response to major extreme weather events since 2000.  Seven of the 10 countries are in Africa:  Burkina Faso, Djibouti, Kenya, Madagascar, Niger, Somalia, and Zimbabwe.  The other three are Afghanistan, Guatemala, and Haiti.  

Oxfam found that acute hunger has more than doubled in those countries just over the past six years.  Nearly 18 million people in these 10 countries are currently on the brink of starvation.

Could Somalia Be the Next Afghanistan?

 Foreign Policy posted on 22 September 2021 a commentary titled "Could Somalia Be the Next Afghanistan?" by Omar S. Mahmood and Abdihakim Ainte.  

Somalia has many similarities to the situation in Afghanistan but there are also important differences.  Without significant changes in Somalia, its path could well mirror the outcome in Afghanistan where the Taliban's success has emboldened al-Shabaab.  

Somali Crisis Poses Problem for US

 The Council on Foreign Relations blog posted on 15 September 2021 a commentary titled "Somalia's Ongoing Political Crisis Exposes Fundamental Problem for U.S. Policy" by Michelle Gavin.  

Somalia's fragile government is again on the brink, consumed by the president and prime minister's tussle for the control of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA).

Eastern African Seaboard: The Heroin Coast

ENACT published in June 2018 a detailed report titled "The Heroin Coast: A Political Economy along the Eastern African Seaboard" by Simone Haysom, Peter Gastrow, and Mark Shaw.

Africa is experiencing the sharpest increase in heroin use worldwide and a spectrum of criminal networks and political elites in East and southern Africa are substantially enmeshed in the trade. The report focuses on the characteristics of the heroin trade in the region and how it has become embedded in the societies along this route. It also highlights the features of the criminal governance systems that facilitate drug trafficking along this coastal route, particularly in Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, and South Africa.

South Sudan: Rethinking Support for Independence

The Washington Post published on 23 September 2016 an oped titled "George Clooney and the Rot in South Sudan" by Zach Vertin, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and former adviser to the U.S. special envoy to Sudan and South Sudan.

Vertin points out that some of the strongest supporters of South Sudan's independence such as George Clooney are now among its strongest critics. He asks whether they bear some responsibility for the deplorable situation in South Sudan. More importantly, he comments that as the United States calibrates foreign policy interventions in divided societies such as Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan whether there are lessons to be drawn from America's unique role in South Sudan.

Africa Accounts for Six of Ten Leading Refugee Producing Countries

The International Crisis Group published on 15 September 2016 an analysis of the world's ten largest refugee producing countries titled "What's Driving the Global refugee Crisis?" The global number of refugees and internally displaced now stands at more than 65 million, the largest figure ever recorded.

In 2015, Syria was by far the largest source of refugees followed by Afghanistan. But six of the ten countries on the list are in Africa. In descending order of significance, they are Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, and Eritrea.

Fragile States Index 2015

The Fund for Peace has just released the Fragile States Index 2015 report.  Seven of the ten most fragile countries in the world are in Africa.  In order, they are South Sudan, Somalia, Central African Republic, Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, and Guinea.  Rankings for other countries in the Horn of Africa are Ethiopia (20), Kenya (21), Eritrea (24), and Djibouti (40). 

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2016: 4 in Africa

Foreign Policy published on 3 January 2016 an article titled "10 Conflicts to Watch in 2016" by Jean-Marie  Guehenno.  Four of the 10 conflicts are in Africa: Libya, Lake Chad Basin, South Sudan, and Burundi. 

Chinese Foreign Policy Comes of Age

The New York Times published on 26 March 2015 an op-ed titled "Chinese Foreign Policy Comes of Age" by Andrew Small, German Marshall Fund of the United States.  Small concludes that Beijing, long content to sit on the sidelines of security issues beyond its borders, has finally come to see inaction as an even greater risk.  He also applies this new Chinese approach to recent developments in Africa.

10 Wars to Watch in 2015

Foreign Policy published on 2 January 2015 an article titled "10 Wars to Watch in 2015" by Jean-Marie Guehenno.  The discussion includes:

--Syria, Iraq, and the Islamic State.
--Ukraine.
--South Sudan.
--Nigeria.
--Somalia.
--DRC.
--Afghanistan.
--Yemen.
--Libya and the Sahel.
--Venezuela. 

"State-building, Counterterrorism and Licensing Humanitarianism in Somalia"

In September 2010, Somali specialist Mark Bradbury published a paper titled "State-building, Counterterrorism and Licensing Humanitarianism in Somalia" at Tufts University's Feinstein International Center.

He argues that Somalia is a location where western military strategies and aid policies developed in Afghanistan and in Iraq are being transferred to Africa. Counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategies combining military force and aid stabilization packages and the use of "for profit" companies to deliver assistance are being deployed in Somalia. This has not proved effective in Afghanistan, where there has been no shortage of funding. He says transferring such approaches to Somalia, which takes no consideration of the context and is backed by fewer resources, seems unlikely to be any more successful.

The biggest challenge to independent humanitarian action in Somalia is, he suggests, the moves towards greater regulation and licensing of humanitarian aid by donor governments. In order to deliver assistance to populations in need in south central Somalia, aid agencies have to negotiate with local authorities, who, in many places, are allied to anti-government forces such as al-Shabaab or Hisbul Islam.

Intervention in Somalia

In August, the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa released a study titled "Somalia: The Intervention Dilemma" (PDF) on the challenges facing international intervention in Somalia.

Written by Jakkie Cilliers, Henri Boshoff and Festus B. Aboagye, it examines African Union force levels. It questions the African Union's interventionist strategy in Somalia, including the planned troop surge, and analyzes the terrorist dimension of the recent bombings, drawing parallels with Afghanistan as a basis for a holistic approach to the conflict in Somalia.

It concludes that the African Union mandate should be transferred to the United Nations.