Ethiopia Insight published on 13 August 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Tigray Must Rebuild Before It Considers Breaking Away" by Mohammedawel Hagos, Worabe University.
The author concluded that the secession of Tigray Region "undertaken hastily, without a democratic mandate or the requisite civic institutions, cannot be regarded as an authentic realization of freedom."
Ethiopia Insight published on 22 July 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray Needs Democracy Before Secession" by Abrar Fitwi, St. Mary's College in Indiana.
The author comments on the agenda of the recently created Tigrayan diaspora advocacy group called Voice of Independent Tigray (VIT) based in Maryland. While the author does not oppose self-determination, he argues that it must be based on a democratic foundation or it will become something hollow or worse, oppressive.
Comment: Tigrayans need to ask themselves at least one more question. Would a democratic and independent Tigray be economically viable or just another small, landlocked state largely dependent on foreign assistance?
China Military Online published on 7 July 2025 an article titled "PLA Support Base in Djibouti Participates in 50th Anniversary of Comoros' Independence" by Wang Zongyang and Dong Mingli.
Following its participation in Madagascar's Independence Day celebration (see 4 July below), a unit of PLA troops from China's military base in Djibouti repeated the performance on 7 July at the 50th anniversary of the independence of the Comoro Islands. On this occasion, they joined marching units from Tanzania and Morocco.
Comment: This is another example of PLA military diplomacy in the Indian Ocean region.
The New York Times published on 12 April 2025 an article titled "African Breakaway State Offers U.S. a Chance to Stick It to China" by Abdi Latif Dahir and Joao Silva.
Somaliland, which unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991, has reportedly offered the United States the option of establishing a military base in exchange for diplomatic recognition. Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi plans to visit Washington in the coming months when he will make the case for recognition, which is already supported by some Republican members of Congress.
Seattle-based Dhugaa Media posted on 3 February 2024 a 54-minute podcast titled "Focus on Ethiopia and the Horn Region" with me moderated by Nagessa Oddo Dube.
This is a wide-ranging discussion of issues in the Horn of Africa with a focus on Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
The Elephant published on 23 January 2024 an analysis titled "Unveiling the Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU: Hopes and Uncertainties" by Mehari Taddele Maru, European University Institute in Florence, Italy.
Although the text of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland has not been made public, based on what is known the author analyzes the significance of the document for a wide variety of interested parties.
The author concludes that, for Ethiopia, the MOU diverts attention from internal conflicts, famine, and economic woes. For Somaliland, it potentially opens doors to international recognition, legitimizing President Muse Bihi Abdi's government, but it may also intensify conflicts in areas such as Laascaanood and Sool. For Somalia, it represents a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, necessitating an outright rejection of the MOU and the seeking of support from regional allies such as Egypt, Eritrea, and Saudi Arabia.
Ethiopia Insight published on 29 January 2024 a commentary titled "Is Ethiopia's Disintegration an Inevitable and Necessary Evil?" by Hambisa Belina, Morgan State University.
The author begins by stating that "the real question is not if Ethiopia will disintegrate, but when and how." He argues that the international community should help organize "a smooth and orderly birthing of new democratic states." He adds: "Although the immense obstacles to achieving a peaceful disintegration must be recognized, they are not insurmountable if external actors support such a process."
Comment: It appears that the author bases his analysis largely on Ethiopia's post-World War II history and tends to ignore the previous 2,000 years. While Ethiopia is a deeply troubled country today and possibly at a crossroads, there is no inevitability about its disintegration. It has weathered equally difficult periods in the past, albeit not with the same international borders as today. The idea that outside powers could help birth an undetermined number of independent, economically viable, democratic states strikes me as fantasy.
The Council on Foreign Relations published on 25 January 2024 a backgrounder titled "Somaliland: The Horn of Africa's Breakaway State" by Mariel Ferragamo and Claire Klobucista.
This is a useful update and background piece on the situation in Somaliland since its unilateral declaration of independence in 1991.
The Guardian published on 13 January 2024 an article titled "'We Are Ready for War': Somalia Threatens Conflict with Ethiopia over Breakaway Region" by Fred Harter.
Ethiopia's Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Somaliland allegedly involves diplomatic recognition of Somaliland in return for Ethiopian use of the port of Berbera and a military base on Somaliland's Gulf of Aden coastline. The MOU has not, however, been published and its terms remain murky. Nevertheless, Somalia, which claims Somaliland as part of its territory, says it is prepared to defend the homeland to prevent its recognition by Ethiopia.
The BBC published on 8 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal Makes Waves in Horn of Africa" by Damian Zane.
Somaliland's defense minister resigned over the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal for access to the Gulf of Aden and a land lease for a military base. The minister complained that he had not been consulted about the deal.
The BBC published on 9 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia-Somaliland Army Chiefs Meet Amid Regional Tensions" by Hanna Temuari.
On 8 January, the army chiefs of Ethiopia and Somaliland met in Addis Ababa to discuss ways to work together.
Reuters published on 7 January 2024 an article titled "Somalia President Signs Law Nullifying Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal" by Abdi Sheikh.
Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a law nullifying a memorandum of understanding between Somaliland and Ethiopia to grant access to the Gulf of Aden and to lease land for a coastal military base in return for recognition of Somaliland as an independent nation. There was no immediate response from Ethiopia or Somaliland.
Comment: The legal implications of this nullification are not clear. On the one hand, Somaliland does not have international recognition. On the other hand, Somalia does not exercise physical control over Somaliland. This may be an issue for international lawyers.
The media consistently refer to this memorandum of understanding as providing Ethiopian access to the Red Sea without seeming to appreciate that the coast of Somaliland is on the Gulf of Aden. Of course, access to the Gulf of Aden will also permit access to the Red Sea, but Ethiopia's goal is not just access to the Red Sea but to cease being the world's most populous landlocked nation. Access to Somaliland's Berbera port and the Gulf of Aden would give Ethiopia access to the entire Indian Ocean and beyond.
The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project published on 4 January 2024 an analysis titled "Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal Strains Horn of Africa Counterterrorism Cooperation and Alters Red Sea Geopolitics" by Liam Karr.
The author concluded the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has severely strained Somali-Ethiopian relations and increased anti-Ethiopian sentiment in southern Somalia, which will likely weaken regional counterterrorism cooperation and energize al-Shabaab. Djibouti, Egypt, and Eritrea will likely view an Ethiopian base in the Gulf of Aden as a threat, while the UAE's strong ties with the Ethiopian government will strengthen the Emiratis' position in its regional rivalry with other Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
The Economist published on 2 January 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia's Gambit for a Port Is Unsettling a Volatile Region."
The article lays out the implications for the wider region of the deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland that gives Ethiopia access to the port of Berbera and a 50-year lease for a military base in the Gulf of Aden in exchange for recognition of Somaliland and shares in Ethiopian Airlines.
Martin Plaut, a journalist specializing in the Horn of Africa, posted on 2 January 2024 a commentary titled "The Somaliland-Ethiopia Deal: Ending a Crisis or Beginning Another?" Acknowledging there is much we do not yet know about the unpublished memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Plaut notes some of the pitfalls in the deal.
World Politics Review published on 28 March 2023 a commentary titled "Somaliland's Case for International Recognition Is Getting Complicated" by Matthew Gordon, University of Marburg.
Conflict in the Las Anod region of Somaliland and geopolitics involving the United States, China, and the Gulf States has complicated Somaliland's quest for international recognition.
The Associated Press published on 11 February 2023 an article titled "Doctor Says 57 Killed in Week of Fighting in Somaliland City" by Omar Faruk.
At least 57 people have been killed in several days of fighting between Somaliland security forces in Las Anod and those who say they want to join Puntland, part of the federal government in Somalia.
African Arguments posted on 8 February 2023 a commentary titled "Is the Pretoria Peace Deal the Beginning of the End of the TPLF?" by Mohamed Kheir Omer, former member of the Eritrean Liberation Front based in Norway.
The author argues that as Tigray engages in collective soul searching, there are calls for an all-inclusive interim administration not dominated by the TPLF. Some Tigrayans are asking hard questions about how Tigray got in the difficult situation that it now finds itself.
Foreign Policy posted on 8 February 2023 a commentary titled "Why Russia Markets Itself as an Anti-Colonial Power to Africans" by Jade McGlynn, King's College London.
Moscow is using "memory diplomacy" to remind Africans that Russia had no colonies on the continent, did not participate in the slave trade, and helped them achieve independence from colonial powers. As it invades Ukraine, Russia also brushes aside the fact that it was an imperial power.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a recent visit to Angola even suggested that Russia's war to "liberate" Ukraine from external Western influence compares to the Angolan war of independence. Sadly, this line of argument resonates in some parts of Africa.
The International Crisis Group posted a 50-minute podcast with Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland, titled "Eritrea's Long Bitter Feud with Ethiopia's Tigray" moderated by Alan Boswell.
The podcast provides a background on the feud between the government of Eritrea and the TPLF leadership in Tigray Region. Eritrea has dedicated significant forces to the Ethiopian central government effort to defeat Tigrayans in the civil war that broke out in 2020. The immediate withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Ethiopia is essential to a successful end of the conflict. At the same time, there needs to be a conversation about Eritrea's security concerns.
Ethiopia Insight published on 29 September 2022 a commentary titled "A Referendum Is the Only Remedy for Tigray's Problems" by Meressa Tsehaye, Mekelle University.
The author argues that "the people of Tigray should be given the choice between remaining in Ethiopia or opting for independence via a referendum."
