China-US Competition in Djibouti

 The Atlantic Council published on 31 July 2025 an analysis titled "Djibouti Is the Next Arena for US-China Competition in the Red Sea" by Emily Milliken.

The author asks how the US can maintain or strengthen its influence in Djibouti when China is providing billions for infrastructure development.  Greater US support for American investment, partnering with the UAE, encouraging the use of Israeli technology, and engaging the country with strategic clarity would improve Washington's position in Djibouti.

China's PLA Troops March in Comoros Independence Day Ceremony

 China Military Online published on 7 July 2025 an article titled "PLA Support Base in Djibouti Participates in 50th Anniversary of Comoros' Independence" by Wang Zongyang and Dong Mingli.

Following its participation in Madagascar's Independence Day celebration (see 4 July below), a unit of PLA troops from China's military base in Djibouti repeated the performance on 7 July at the 50th anniversary of the independence of the Comoro Islands.  On this occasion, they joined marching units from Tanzania and Morocco.

Comment:  This is another example of PLA military diplomacy in the Indian Ocean region.  

Russia Transitions Wagner Group to Africa Corps in Africa

 AEI's Critical Threats published on 12 June 2025 an analysis titled "Wagner Out, Africa Corps In" by Liam Karr and Kathryn Tyson.  

Russia's Wagner Group formally withdrew from Mali and transitioned the Russian military presence to the Africa Corps.  As the Wagner Group pulls out of Mali, al-Qaeda and Islamic State-affiliated insurgents are stronger than ever.  

Russia is also trying to transition from the Wagner Group to the Africa Corps in the Central African Republic.  Responsibility for Russian operations in Africa will now rest squarely with the Kremlin although Russian billionaire Gennady Timchenko may play a key role in the operations.  

The Importance of Diego Garcia to US Strategy in the Indian Ocean

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 21 April 2025 an analysis titled "How the UK-Mauritius Deal on Chagos Could Reshape US Military Strategy in the Indian Ocean" by Raghvendra Kumar.  

Diego Garcia hosts a joint Anglo-American military base with a deepwater port capable of berthing aircraft carriers, a long runway that enables deep-strike operations and accommodates heavy bombers and refueling aircraft, advanced satellite communication facilities, and strategically pre-positioned military support and supplies.

The Diego Garcia base, which most recently has been used to launch airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, remains critical to US military strategy in the Indian Ocean.  It provides the strategic depth necessary to deter aggression, defend US interests, restore freedom of navigation, and secure vital sea lines of communication.   It takes on added importance as China expands its military footprint in the Indian Ocean region.  

Is Gabon the Location of China's Second African Military Base

 The Foreign Military Studies Office of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command posted on 15 February 2025 a commentary titled "China Sets Sight on Gabon for Second African Military Base" by Jacob Zenn, adjunct professor at Georgetown University.  

The author argued that Beijing is targeting Gabon to host the second Chinese military base on the African continent following establishment of its first in Djibouti in 2017.  Evidence to support this conclusion seems to be based primarily on the September 2024 visit to Gabon by the PLA Navy hospital ship, Peace Ark.  

Comment:  While China probably does wish to establish a naval base on Africa's Atlantic coast at some point, the Peace Ark on this same trip also made calls at ports in Luanda, Angola; Brazzaville, Republic of Congo; Douala, Cameroon; Cotonou, Benin; and Nouakchott, Mauritania.  These ports and others are candidates for a future Chinese naval facility.  

US AFRICOM View of Security Situation in Africa

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies posted on 30 January 2025 a one hour and 15-minute podcast titled "AFRICOM at 17: Shaping U.S.-Africa Relations" with Mvemba Phezo Dizolele and Brigadier General Rose Lopez Keravuori, director of intelligence at U.S. AFRICOM.

This is a wide-ranging conversation with a person who has served for three and a half years as director of intelligence at U.S. AFRICOM.  It covers all parts of the continent and includes comments on other key external actors such as Russia, France, China, and Turkey.  

Russia Looks at Ports in Libya, Algeria, and Sudan as Potential Alternatives to Syria

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 14 January 2025 an analysis titled "Russia's Options for Naval Basing in the Mediterranean After Syria's Tartus" by Edward Black and Sidharth Kaushal.

In the event that Russia must close its naval base at Tartus in Syria, Mediterranean replacement options are Libya and Algeria and Sudan on the Red Sea.  Tobruk in Libya is the most likely alternative, but it comes with significant downsides.  

Growing Concerns about Russia's Ability to Provide Security in Africa

 Foreign Policy published on 31 December 2024 an analysis titled "The Illusion of Russian Security in Africa Has Been Shattered" by Samuel Ramani, CEO of Pangea Geopolitical Risk.  

Due to Russia's setback in Syria, African autocracies are second-guessing Moscow's ability to serve as their last line of defense in a moment of crisis.  In any event, Russia's track record for providing security in Africa has been underwhelming.  

Libya and Sudan are highly problematic as replacement locations for Russian air and naval bases in Syria should they be asked to leave.

China and Maritime Security in the Gulf of Guinea

 The South China Morning Post published on 9 December 2024 an article titled "Maritime Threats High on Agenda as Chinese Navy Hosts Gulf of Guinea Security Forum" by Seong Hyeon Choi.

China hosted a two-day forum on the security situation in the Gulf of Guinea in Shanghai for representative of 18 countries from the region.

China's Security Presence in Africa

 The Center for Naval Analyses published in October 2024 a study titled "The Military and Security Dimensions of the PRC's Africa Presence: Changes in a Time of Global Shocks" by Tim Ditter, Kaia Haney, Tsun-Kai Tsai, and Carita Reid.  

The study concludes that China could use Africa as the testing ground for its aspirations of security assistance globally through the implementation of the Global Security Initiative, potentially foreshadowing a future more globally active PLA military and security presence.  

Addressing Conflict in the Red Sea Region

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute posted on 2 September 2024 a commentary titled "Navigating the Red Sea: Addressing Threats and Harnessing Potential" by Frederic Gateretse-Ngoga, Farea Al-Muslimi, Lisa Bostrom, and Veera Tuomala.   

The Red Sea has become a major flashpoint for regional conflict.  Operationalizing the Red Sea Council, established in 2020, could help mitigate tension in the region.  

Gulf States Increase Engagement in Africa, Raising New Issues

 The Council on Foreign Relations posted on 8 August 2024 an analysis titled "Africa and the Gulf Are Becoming Closer.  Will It Increase Global Tensions?" by Alexandra Dent and Mariel Ferragamo.

Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia have increased their political, military, and economic engagement in Africa.  They have found willing partners with African governments but also exported Gulf State tensions to the continent.

The Pros and Cons of China in Africa

 The New Left Review published on 25 July 2024 a commentary titled "Evil Empires?" by Elizabeth Schmidt.

The author looks at the plusses and minuses of China's engagement in Africa since the end of the Cold War.  

Niger Pivots from Washington to Moscow

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 5 April 2024 an analysis titled "Niger's Pivot to Moscow: What's Next for US Engagement in Africa?" by Raphael Parens, Christopher Faulkner, and Marcel Plichta.

Niger's military regime has asked US forces to leave the country while pivoting toward Russia.  The United States is trying to salvage some influence and presence in the country as Russia works to remove it entirely.  Should Russia's Africa Corps move into Niger, it will likely be used to keep the regime in power rather than confront the country's serious ISIS terrorist threat.  

Russia Strengthens Eritrea Ties with High Level Naval Visits

 The Eritrean Ministry of Information published on 4 April 2024 a press release titled "Russian Delegation Visits Northern and Southern Red Sea Regions."

The deputy commander of the Russian navy led a delegation to Eritrea in early April when it toured a variety of port and airport facilities.  

Military Africa published on 3 April 2024 an article titled "Russian Navy's Udaloy Class Frigate Visits Eritrea to Strengthen Ties" by Kazim Abdul.

Coinciding with the Russian deputy naval commander's visit, the Udaloy class frigate, Marshal Shaposhnikov, and guided missile cruiser, Varyag, made a five-day visit to Massawa marking the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Eritrea and Russia.  

Critical Threats published on 4 April 2024 an article titled "The Kremlin's Red Sea Ambitions in Eritrea" by Liam Karr. 

The article provides additional detail on the Russia-Eritrea relationship.

Is China Pursuing a Second Military Base in Africa?

 Chatham House published on 25 March 2024 a commentary titled "Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa as the US Struggles to Maintain One in Niger?" by Alex Vines, Armida van Rij, and Henry Tugendhat.

China opened its first and only military base outside the country in Djibouti in 2017.  Rumors persist that Beijing is seeking another base in Africa.  But the mood across Africa about establishing more foreign bases is increasingly ambivalent.  As the United States is being pushed out of its base in Niger, China may be wary of the impermanent nature of these agreements with African governments.  

The authors suggest that rather than establish another full-fledged military base somewhere in Africa, China will seek to expand its civilian port infrastructure efforts and build dual-use facilities in African ports that it has invested in.  

Somalia Faces a Year of Crises

 The New York Times published on 27 February 2024 an article titled "Hunger, Terrorism and the Threat of War: Somalia's Year of Crises" by Abdi Latif Dahir and Brian Otieno.  

The article suggests that drought, the continuing challenge of the al-Shabaab terrorist group, and possible conflict with Ethiopia following its Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland could create a difficult year for Somalia.

Türkiye Signs Defense Deal with Somalia and Reiterates Support for Sovereignty

 Al-Monitor published on 7 February 2024 an article titled "Turkey, Somalia Sign Defense Deal in Wake of Ethiopia-Somaliland Agreement" by Ezgi Akin.  

Somalia and Türkiye signed this week an agreement on the fight against terrorism and military-financial cooperation.  Türkiye reiterated its support for Somalia's territorial integrity and sovereignty in the wake of Ethiopia's willingness to consider the recognition of an independent Somaliland.  

Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal, Position of China and US, and Red Sea Implications

 The South China Morning Post published on 14 January 2024 an article titled "China Set to Stay on Neutral Ground as a Red Sea Storm Brews Over Ethiopia's Port Deal with Somalia" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China supports the territorial integrity of Somalia and urges that countries in the Horn of Africa resolve their disagreement over the recent Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) through dialogue. The US position is similar.  The MOU introduces, however, a new complicating factor in the politics of the countries in the Horn of Africa and those bordering the Red Sea.  

Russia's Growing Footprint in Africa

 The Council on Foreign Relations published on 28 December 2023 a backgrounder titled "Russia's Growing Footprint in Africa" by Mariel Ferragamo.

The author concluded that Russia is increasingly tapping into anti-Western sentiment to bolster its influence in Africa and gain support for a multipolar world.  The fallout from the war in Ukraine has, however, revealed diplomatic fault lines.