A Comprehensive Report on Russia's Africa Corps

 The Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey published in August 2025 a study titled "Putin's New Frontier: The Prospects and Limitations of Africa Corps" by Hanna Notte. 

This timely and well researched study concludes that Russia's Africa Corps is a bureaucratic restructuring and rebranding of the Wagner Goup, which only continues to function in the Central African Republic.  It employs many former Wagner mercenary fighters and has taken control of its recruitment infrastructure. 

The Africa Corps is tethered closer to the Russian military's chain of command. It prioritizes training and routine security assistance rather than the high-risk missions of the Wagner Group.  It apparently relies on funding from Russia's state budget.  The Africa Corps might face future competition from countries such as Turkey, Iran, and China.  

The China-Africa Security Relationship

 The China Global South Project posted on 23 July 2025 a Q & A titled "China's 'Feeling the Stones' Approach to African Security Takes Shape" with Lungani Hlongwa, China-Africa Security Radar, and Paul Nantulya, Africa Center for Security Studies in Washington.

China sees Africa as central to the future of the international order.  Because of increasing threats to Chinese nationals and interests in Africa, the security element of China's engagement has become more important.  But China is not following a single strategy for dealing with the security challenges that it faces.  Chinese policy is usually aligned at the strategic level but often encounters fragmentation at the level of execution.  

Is the Wagner Group a Model for Mercenary Organizations?

 Stimson published on 25 October 2024 a commentary titled "Is Wagner a Model for Other Mercenary Groups?" by Brian Castner.  

Russia's mercenary Wagner Group gained much of its notoriety through its employment in African conflicts.  Wagner's strengths were its ability to recruit in Russia from military veterans and the prison population and to accomplish multiple lines of effort in a security-deficient space.  Wagner was both a military force and a business organization.  

Today, Wagner has split into multiple smaller organizations.  There are, however, situations where Wagner-like groups can thrive.  

Do Chinese Really Want Wagner Group Type Security to Protect Their Interests?

 Foreign Policy published on 21 October 2024 a commentary titled "Prigozhin's Ghost Lives on in China" by Alessandro Arduino.

Judging by social media comments, China's leading security pundits are enamored by Russian Wagner Group's bravado and believe China's approach to the protection of Chinese interests is too passive.  They see Wagner as the model for Chinese private security companies protecting projects across the globe in high-risk areas.   

China's Security Presence in Africa

 The Center for Naval Analyses published in October 2024 a study titled "The Military and Security Dimensions of the PRC's Africa Presence: Changes in a Time of Global Shocks" by Tim Ditter, Kaia Haney, Tsun-Kai Tsai, and Carita Reid.  

The study concludes that China could use Africa as the testing ground for its aspirations of security assistance globally through the implementation of the Global Security Initiative, potentially foreshadowing a future more globally active PLA military and security presence.  

China's Expanding Security Footprint in Africa

 The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 30 September 2024 an analysis titled "China's Expanding Security Footprint in Africa: From Arms Transfers to Military Cooperation" by Alessandro Arduino, King's College London.

The author concludes that China's security strategy in Africa now consists of boosting military training and cooperation, increasing arms transfers, and strengthening its own private security sector.   

Chinese Counterterrorism in Africa

 The Stimson Center published on 31 July 2024 an analysis titled "Chinese Counterterrorism in Africa" by Cobus van Staden.

China's approach to counterterrorism in Africa blurs the lines between crime and terrorism on both sides of the relationship.  This analysis emphasizes the role of non-state actors in the context of low state capacity and explains some of the factors that inform the limitations of Chinese counterterrorism approaches in Africa.

Implications of the Wagner Group Mutiny for China in Africa

 Foreign Policy published on 19 July 2023 a commentary titled "What the Wagner Mutiny Means for China in Africa" by Alessandro Arduino, Lau China Institute.

The possibility of Moscow failing to rein in Wagner Group mercenaries in areas of Africa where China has significant economic interests could create a fault line in the Chinese-Russian "no limit friendship,"  Gone are the days when Chinese SOEs could rely on the Western security umbrella.  Wagner's future role in Africa has become a more important issue in China-Russia discussions.  

Will Chinese Private Security Companies Replace the Wagner Group in Africa?

 The Diplomat published on 24 June 2023 a commentary titled "Will China's Private Security Companies Follow the Wagner Group's Footsteps in Africa?" by Jong Min Lee, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, and Samuel Wittman, George Washington University.

The authors point out that unlike the mercenary Wagner Group, the major focus of Chinese private security companies (PSCs) in Africa has been to provide security for Chinese SOEs, making use of local paramilitaries and militias.  But gradually, as opportunities open in the retreat of Wagner forces, China is likely to utilize PSCs as a tool to expand its military and political influence in Africa.

Comment:  Even if Russia's Wagner Group forces begin leaving Africa, it is not likely that Chinese PSCs will attempt to implement a similar model; they will likely remain focused on protecting Chinese interests, albeit also expanding Chinese influence on the continent.  

Chinese Private Security Companies in Africa

 The Jamestown Foundation published on 6 June 2023 an analysis titled "Chinese PSCs in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Cases of Francophone and Lusophone Africa" by Sergey Sukhankin.  

Chinese private security companies (PSCs) are gradually increasing their presence in Sub-Saharan Africa's Francophone and Lusophone countries.  They have become particularly engaged in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique.  

Protecting Chinese Interests in Sudan

 Think China published on 17 May 2023 a commentary titled "Can China Do More to Protect Its Interests in Sudan?" by Alessandro Arduino.

The author concluded that China is pursuing a "wait and see" approach to the conflict in Sudan and will rely on other countries to take the lead.  

Regulating the Wagner Mercenary Group

 Lawfare published on 13 April 2023 an analysis titled "Wagner, PMSCs, and the Limits of Transnational Governance" by Kuzi Charamba, University of Hong Kong, and Frederic Megret, McGill University.  

The authors conclude that the disconnect between antiquated international law sources, developing but largely voluntary transnational corporate practice, and the reality of amorphous entities such as the Wagner Group creates opportunities for regulatory escape.  As a sprawling network of shell companies and individuals, the Wagner Group has turned out to be particularly elusive.

Can China Protect Its Nationals in the Central African Republic?

 China Brief published on 31 March 2023 an article titled "Central African Republic Mine Attack: Can China Protect Its Overseas Nationals?" by John S. Van Oudenaren.  

On March 19, gunmen attacked miners at a gold mine in the Central African Republic, killing 9 Chinese workers.  The author asks if China has the capacity to protect its nationals in dangerous parts of the world.  The People's Liberation Army still has limited capacity to conduct complex, joint operations in regions far beyond East Asia.  A growing number of Chinese private security companies have begun operating abroad but have not yet proved to be the solution.  

Comment: Two weeks after the incident in the CAR, China evacuated 80 Chinese nationals from the country.  

China Makes Increasing Use of Private Security Companies in Africa

 The Conversation published on 8 August 2022 a commentary titled "Chinese Private Security Firms Are Growing Their Presence in Africa: Why It Matters" by Alessandro Arduino.

As China's presence and interests increase in Africa, so does its need for additional security.  This commentary discusses China's growing reliance on private security companies for this purpose.  

Russia's Soft Power in Africa

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published on 28 March 2022 a study titled "Russia's Soft-power Sources in Africa" by Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti.  

The author concluded that Russia's common cultural sources of soft power in the West do not seem particularly influential in Africa.  Russia's political values, however, (multilateralism, anti-imperialism and non-interference) are particularly well received by policymakers in the Global South.  Russia's allure in Africa is based on its image as a global player that can stand up to the West.  

Comment:  If anti-imperialism and non-interference are valued in the Global South, Russia's invasion of Ukraine would seem to undermine both values.  

Overseas Expansion of Chinese Private Security Companies

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published in January 2022 a study titled "A Stealth Industry: The Quiet Expansion of Chinese Private Security Companies" by Max Markusen.

Between 20 and 40 Chinese private security companies now operate outside China in about 40 countries, including extensively in Africa.  They are a useful tool for the Communist Party of China to protect Chinese interests and project power abroad.  

China's Strategy to Protect Interests in Africa

 War on the Rocks posted on 4 August 2021 a commentary titled "Continuity and Change in China's Strategy to Protect Overseas Interests" by Andrea Ghiselli, Fudan University.

The author argues that China's overseas, including Africa, security strategy is to put the burden on Chinese companies and organizations to ensure the safety of their employees.  They can do this by paying more attention to risk management and using the services of private security companies.  The direct role of the People's Liberation Army has not changed.  At the same time, China will work with and support local security forces so that they can ensure the safety of Chinese interests.  Chinese decision-makers have been pragmatic and cautious, well aware of the risks and costs that a more active use of the military to protect their country's interests overseas would entail.  

Chinese "Private" Security Companies Expand in Africa

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 15 June 2021 an analysis titled "Chinese Security Firms Spread along the African Belt and Road" by Paul Nantulya.

China is increasingly relying on so-called private Chinese security firms to protect its interests in Africa.  But Chinese security firms are not private.  At least 51 percent of their capital must be state-owned.  They are controlled by the state and serve its interests.  

Chinese Private Security Companies in Kenya

 The China Africa Research Initiative published in February 2021 a paper titled "Private Security Companies in Kenya and the Impact of Chinese Actors" by Shuwen Zheng, World Bank, and Ying Xia, private researcher.

The paper examines the development and impact of Chinese private security companies (PSCs) in Kenya.  It concludes that Chinese engagement in overseas security protection is far behind other sectors.  The failure to hold a larger market share is due to fierce competition among PSCs and Chinese investor's ignorance about security needs.

China's Strategic Aims in Africa

 The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission published in December 2020 its "2020 Report to Congress."  Section 3 covers "China's Strategic Aims In Africa."

Section 3 is a comprehensive analysis of China's efforts to use Africa as a way to increase its global influence.  It explains how China benefits from Africa and contributes to the continent with a focus on security related components of the relationship.