Russia's Africa Corps Encounters Limits

 The CTC Sentinel published in December 2024 an analysis titled "Africa Corps: Has Russia Hit a Ceiling in Africa?" by Christopher Faulkner, Marcel Plichta, and Raphael Parens.  

Russia's Africa Corps deployment in Africa's Sahel region has done little to curb jihadi violence.  It is not even clear that Moscow has a Sahel strategy. Russia's recent setback in Syria will make success in the Sahel even more questionable.  The Africa Corps is encountering significant challenges.  In Niger and Burkina Faso, the Africa Corps looks more like a Praetorian Guard to keep military regime leaders in power.  

Houthi Rebels in Yemen Expand Ties with Somali Terrorist Group and Russia

 The New York-based Soufan Center published on 5 November 2024 an article titled "Houthis Continue Regional and Global Expansion, Networking with Terror Groups and State Sponsors of Terrorism."

Houthi rebels in Yemen have extended their operational links to the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab terrorist group in Somalia and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.  There is also growing cooperation between the Houthis and Russia.

Is the Wagner Group a Model for Mercenary Organizations?

 Stimson published on 25 October 2024 a commentary titled "Is Wagner a Model for Other Mercenary Groups?" by Brian Castner.  

Russia's mercenary Wagner Group gained much of its notoriety through its employment in African conflicts.  Wagner's strengths were its ability to recruit in Russia from military veterans and the prison population and to accomplish multiple lines of effort in a security-deficient space.  Wagner was both a military force and a business organization.  

Today, Wagner has split into multiple smaller organizations.  There are, however, situations where Wagner-like groups can thrive.  

Russia's Wagner Group Lives in Africa

 War on the Rocks published on 9 October 2024 a commentary titled "After Prigozhin, the Wagner Group's Enduring Impact" by Jack Margolin.  

The current iteration of the Wagner Group continues both military and commercial operations in Mali and the Central African Republic in close coordination with Russian security services.  Russia allows the Wagner Group to survive.  At the same time, there is no unified Russian plan for Africa.

Some Russian Mercenaries Pulled Out of Burkina Faso to Defend Kursk

 The Moscow Times published on 30 August 2024 an article titled "Russian Mercenaries Pulled Out of Burkina Faso to Defend Kursk - Commander" by Anna Smolchenko and Didier Lauras for AFP.

Russia has pulled an estimated 100 soldiers from about 300 of its Bear Brigade in Burkina Faso to join Russian forces in the defense of Kursk from Ukraine.  Analysts say this departure will have little impact on the security situation in Burkina Faso as the mercenaries were focused on training and providing security for Burkina's political leadership.  One analyst said members of the Bear Brigade are volunteers who had signed a contract with Russia's GRU military intelligence service and are being coordinated by the Africa Corps, which has replaced the Wagner Group.  

Russia's Africa Corps Is Absorbing the Wagner Group

 The New York Times published on 25 June 2024 an article titled "Year After Failed Mutiny, Russia Tightens Grip on Wagner Units in Africa" by Elian Peltier.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has largely taken control of the Wagner Group's mercenary activities in Africa and placed it under the new Africa Corps.  Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU, oversees Africa Corps operations.  Some Wagner Group operatives remain in the Central African Republic and Mali.  

Russia's Wagner Group in the Central African Republic

 The Pulitzer Center published on 25 April 2024 an article titled "Wagner in Africa" by James Pogue.  

This is a long and breezy account of instability in the Central African Republic and the rise of Russia's Wagner Group by an American journalist who was detained by local authorities.  

Russia's Unconventional Warfare in Africa

 The Royal United Services Institute published in February 2024 a study titled "The Threat from Russia's Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022-2024" by Jack Watling, Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, and Nick Reynolds.  

This is a detailed analysis of the Wagner Group, now known in Africa as the Africa Corps.  Most of the financing and enablement of the Wagner Group always came directly from the Russian state.  It evolved in response to GRU (Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) requirements.  

It was an arm of Russia's Africa strategy to displace Western interests, gain control over critical resources, and reduce Russia's own vulnerability to sanctions.  In Africa, the Wagner Group operated as a colonial project to gain control over African governments and exploit the continent's natural resources.  Beyond Africa, the study concluded that Russia is using unconventional methods to expand its influence, evade containment, and destabilize and disrupt its adversaries.  

Russia Steps Up Competition with West in Africa

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 11 January 2024 an analysis titled "Russia Steps Up the Competition in Africa" by Raphael Parens.

The Kremlin is increasingly moving to compete directly with the West in Africa, especially in the Sahel region.  But its ongoing war in Ukraine my limit these operations, given limited manpower reserves and the increasing attrition rate of its military and paramilitary leadership.  

Russian Government Taking Control of Wagner Group in Africa

 The Washington Post published on 18 September 2023 an article titled "In Wagner's Largest African Outpost, Russia Looks to Tighten Its Grip" by Rachel Carson and Barbara Debout.

Following the death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the Russian government is moving to take direct control over the more than 1,000 mercenaries in the Central African Republic.  Russia's defense minister and head of the Russian military intelligence agency, GRU, recently visited the CAR, Mali, and Burkina Faso to explain that the Wagner Group is now under government control.  

The Battle for Control of the Wagner Group Empire

 The New York Times published on 8 September 2023 an article titled "After Prigozhin's Death, A High-Stakes Scramble for His Empire" by Anton Troianovski, Declan Walsh, Eric Schmitt, Vivian Yee, and Julian E. Barnes.

The Wagner Group under Yevgeniy Prigozhin had Russia's most effective fighting force in Ukraine, an online "troll farm" that was instrumental in undercutting democratic institutions around the world, and mercenaries in Africa and Syria that propped up autocrats and helped increase Russian influence.

Two Russian intelligence services, the foreign intelligence service (SVR) and military intelligence agency (GRU), are vying to take over parts of the Wagner operation.  The SVR is looking to assume control of the propaganda and disinformation component and the GRU the mercenary operation.  

Wagner Group Expected to Remain in Africa After Leader's Death

 Aljazeera published on 26 August 2023 an article titled "Charismatic Leader Is Gone but Wagner Will Survive in Africa, Analysts Say" by Ope Adetayo.  

African governments that have been receiving the services of the mercenary Wagner Group fully expect the relationship will continue in spite of the death of its leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin and his top lieutenant.  

Changes for the Wagner Group in Africa and the Middle East

 Brookings published on 18 July 2023 a commentary titled "What's Ahead for the Wagner Group in Africa and the Middle East?" by Vanda Felbab-Brown.

Neither the Kremlin nor Russian intelligence services want to lose the Wagner Group's income and capabilities even if they want better control over the organization.  Russian intelligence services will weaken Yevgeniy Prigozhin's involvement and strengthen the Kremlin's control over Wagner.