The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 20 September 2023 an analysis titled "Post-Prigozhin Russia in Africa: Regaining or Losing Control?" by Mathieu Droin and Tina Dolbaia.
Since the death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin, Russia's appeal as a security guarantor and military partner in Africa has so far remained intact. However, increasing challenges facing Russia might negatively impact this situation. The future of the Wagner Group remains murky.
The Wall Street Journal published on 21 September 2023 an article titled "The Elusive Figure Running Wagner's Embattled Empire of Gold and Diamonds" by Benoit Faucon and Gabriele Steinhauser.
French educated and multi-lingual Dmitry Sytii is likely to play a key role in running the Wagner Group's multibillion dollar African empire of mercenaries, gold, lumber, and diamonds.
The Washington Post published on 18 September 2023 an article titled "In Wagner's Largest African Outpost, Russia Looks to Tighten Its Grip" by Rachel Carson and Barbara Debout.
Following the death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the Russian government is moving to take direct control over the more than 1,000 mercenaries in the Central African Republic. Russia's defense minister and head of the Russian military intelligence agency, GRU, recently visited the CAR, Mali, and Burkina Faso to explain that the Wagner Group is now under government control.
The New York Times published on 25 August 2023 an article titled "Wagner Group May Have Lost 'Mythic Appeal' in Africa" by Elian Peltier.
Russia is working to assure African client governments of the mercenary Wagner Group that it is taking charge of the organization. Other Russian military companies more closely affiliated with the Kremlin may also seek to recruit Wagner mercenaries.
The Washington Post published on 25 August 2023 an article titled "Before Prigozhin Plane Crash, Russia Was Preparing for Life After Wagner" by Mary Ilushina, Francesca Ebel, Rachel Chason, and Claire Parker.
The article identifies other Russian private military companies (PMCs) that may try to compete with Wagner in the African market. One is Redut, a PMC controlled by the Russian Defense Ministry. Another is Konvoi, which has close ties with the Russian Defense Ministry.
The Washington Post published on 17 July 2023 an editorial titled "How to Tame the Russian Mercenaries Who Are Destabilizing Africa."
The Washington Post argues that the United States and its allies should redouble efforts to support peacekeeping missions in Africa--preferably through the African Union--by giving them the tools they need to fight their own wars and not have to rely on outside mercenaries.
The Washington Post published on 1 July 2023 an article titled "After Mutiny, Kremlin Looks to Unwind Holdings Tied to Wagner Mercenary Boss" by Mary Ilyushina, Rachel Chason, Robyn Dixon, and John Hudson.
Russia has sought to reassure African leaders who relied on the Wagner Group for security that the company will continue to operate, but it is not clear that will be possible while also cutting off Yevgeniy Prigozhin from Russian government funding. There are other private military companies in Russia, but none seem positioned to replace Wagner in Africa.
A Russian investigative expert on the Wagner Group argues that in the absence of Prigozhin, his conglomerate of numerous companies will either cease to exist or it will degenerate into something completely different, incapable of the same level of activity.
The Sentry published in June 2023 a 74-page report titled "Architects of Terror: The Wagner Group's Blueprint for State Capture in the Central African Republic."
Although written before the mutiny of the Wagner Group in Russia, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated publicly that the Wagner Group will remain in Africa, including in the Central African Republic. The Sentry points out that CAR President Faustin-Archange Touadera's inner circle retains control of operations within the capital of Bangui, but the Wagner Group has managed to establish miliary control of operations outside Bangui.
The study argues that the Wagner Group "has perfected a blueprint for state capture, supporting a criminalized state hijacked by the Central African president and his inner circle, amassing military power, securing access to and plundering precious minerals, and subduing the population with terror."
The New York Times published on 15 May 2023 an article titled "Mysterious Killing of Chinese Gold Miners Puts New Pressure on Beijing" by Nicole Hong and Elian Peltier.
In March, gunmen targeted Chinese gold miners in the Central African Republic, killing nine of them. The government of the CAR blamed a local rebel group called the Coalition of Patriots for Change, which denied the charge and claimed the Russian mercenary organization, Wagner Group, was responsible. Chinese officials are still investigating the attack as China struggles to protect its nationals in remote and dangerous locations in Africa.
Africa Defense Forum magazine published on 2 May 2023 an article titled "Wagner Group's CAR Mining Operations Help Russia Evade Sanctions."
The mercenary Wagner Group helps Russia circumvent sanctions by laundering gold and diamonds from the Central African Republic to finance the invasion of Ukraine.
World Politics Review published on 31 January 2023 an analysis titled "Wagner Is Only One Piece in Central African Republic's Messy Puzzle" by Vianney Ingasso, investigative reporter for Bangui's Radio Ndeke Luka, Marcel Plichta, doctoral candidate at the University of St. Andrews, and John Lechner, researcher and writer on Central Africa.
This is an analysis of the complex struggle for power in the Central African Republic and the role of the Wagner Group, Russia's mercenary organization. The authors conclude that Wagner's 1200 mercenaries have shifted the military balance of power in the CAR government's favor for the first time in years. Russian advisers wield influence and perhaps reap the financial benefits of mineral extraction but they have not yet translated these gains into substantial foreign policy wins for the Kremlin.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 3 December 2021 an analysis titled "Russia's Influence in the Central Africa Republic" by Pauline Bax.
From a military point of view, Russia's mercenary intervention force, the Wagner Group, has served President Touadera well. In the long term, however, the CAR government will have to muster the political will to extend its extremely limited services beyond the capital of Bangui if it is to maintain control over the areas its troops have recaptured from the rebels. The military force is too small to push out all the armed groups and keep them out, and its relations with MINUSCA are too fraught to accomplish much beyond securing the mining zones.
