Preparing for the Next Wagner Group in Africa

 World Politics Review published on 20 July 2023 a commentary titled "The West Needs to Prepare for the 'Next Wagner' in Africa" by Christopher Faulkner, U.S. Naval War College, Raphael Parens, Foreign Policy Research Institute, and Marcel Plichta, University of St. Andrews.  

The Wagner model is here to stay, as Moscow will continue to find value in deploying semi-private military companies to high-risk areas far from its borders.  US policy makers need to seriously consider how to deter countries from hiring Kremlin-linked firms.  

Unwinding Wagner Group and Implications for Africa

 The Washington Post published on 1 July 2023 an article titled "After Mutiny, Kremlin Looks to Unwind Holdings Tied to Wagner Mercenary Boss" by Mary Ilyushina, Rachel Chason, Robyn Dixon, and John Hudson.  

Russia has sought to reassure African leaders who relied on the Wagner Group for security that the company will continue to operate, but it is not clear that will be possible while also cutting off Yevgeniy Prigozhin from Russian government funding.  There are other private military companies in Russia, but none seem positioned to replace Wagner in Africa.  

A Russian investigative expert on the Wagner Group argues that in the absence of Prigozhin, his conglomerate of numerous companies will either cease to exist or it will degenerate into something completely different, incapable of the same level of activity.

Wagner Group Complicates UN Peacekeeping Operations in Africa

 The International Peace Institute published on 20 March 2023 a commentary titled "Wagner Group Poses Fundamental Challenges for the Protection of Civilians by UN Peacekeeping Operations" by Dirk Druet, McGill University.

The Wagner Group has raised serious risks for the safety of UN peacekeeping operations in the Central African Republic and Mali.  Countries participating in these UN peacekeeping operations need to consider ways to minimize the challenges posed by the Wagner Group.

Russia and China Are Major Arms Suppliers to Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 10 January 2023 an article titled "China's Growing Influence in Africa Extends to Arms Sales, Report Says" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Drawing primarily on a recent report released by the RAND Corporation, the article assesses the important role played by Russia and China as arms suppliers to Africa.  Russia remains in the lead, but China is working hard to catch up, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.  

China and Russia Export Arms and Private Military Contractors to Africa

 The RAND Corporation has just published a paper titled "Mapping Chinese and Russian Military and Security Exports to Africa" by Cortney Weinbaum, Melissa Shostak, Chandler Sachs, and John V. Parachini.  

China and Russia are among the top five countries that export major arms to Africa and both countries have employed private military and security contractors across Africa.  Russia exports more arms than China and employs a mercenary organization, the Wagner Group, in several African countries.  Chinese private military contractors are almost always unarmed and are used to secure Chinese interests.  

Russia and China in Africa

 The Peace Research Institute Oslo posted on 17 September 2022 a commentary titled "Russia and China Ambiguity Alliance in Africa" by Vamo Soko and Bintu Zahara Sakor.

Russia is trying to increase its geopolitical influence and maximize its economic gain in Africa.  Its strategy is opportunistic and calculating.  China is expanding its economic engagement with Africa while French influence is in decline.  

Comment:  In spite of the title of the commentary, the authors don't tell us whether there is any collaboration between China and Russia in Africa.  

Russian Mercenary Group Operations in CAR and Mali

 The Armed Conflict and Event Data Project (ACLED) published on 30 August 2022 a study titled "Wagner Group Operations in Africa: Civilian Targeting Trends in the Central African Republic and Mali" by Ladd Serwat, Heni Nsaibia, Vincenzo Carbone, and Timothy Lay.

The Russian mercenary Wagner Group has been operating in the Central African Republic since 2018 and in Mali since 2021.  Civilian targeting accounts for 52 percent and 71 percent of Wagner Group involvement in the CAR and Mali respectively.  In the CAR, Wagner operates mostly independently of the Central African Armed Forces while in Mali it operates mostly alongside state security forces.

Is Russia Mobilizing Reinforcements from Syria and Africa for Ukraine?

 The Institute for the Study of War published on 31 March 2022 an analysis titled "Russia Mobilizes Reinforcements from Syria and Africa to Ukraine" by Jennifer Cafarella, Ezgi Yazici, and Zach Coles. 

The paper argues that Russia is attempting to redeploy Syrian units with experience working under Russian commanders to Ukraine to mitigate high Russian casualties.  The report provides little evidence that Russia has sent Wagner Group mercenaries from Africa to Ukraine.