War on the Rocks published on 9 October 2024 a commentary titled "After Prigozhin, the Wagner Group's Enduring Impact" by Jack Margolin.
The current iteration of the Wagner Group continues both military and commercial operations in Mali and the Central African Republic in close coordination with Russian security services. Russia allows the Wagner Group to survive. At the same time, there is no unified Russian plan for Africa.
The CTC Sentinel published in September 2023 an analysis titled "After Prigozhin: The Future of the Wagner Model in Africa" by Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, and Marcel Plichta.
Wagner Group personnel in Africa appear poised to carry on their original missions given the importance of the continent to Russia's broader strategic ambitions. Moscow has signaled a tolerance, if not need, for Wagner or a Wagner-like entity in Africa. Abandoning Wagner clients would severely undermine Russia's influence on the continent.
The Washington Post published on 22 August 2023 an article titled "Wagner Mercenary Group to Focus on Africa, Prigozhin Says in New Video" by Mary Ilyushina.
Wagner Group boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin recently said his organization is now focusing its operation in Africa. He has pitched Wagner's services to the new military government in Niger, although there is no evidence so far that the regime is interested in his services.
The Washington Post published on 19 July 2023 an article titled "Prigozhin Says Wagner Mercenary Group for Now Will Not Fight in Ukraine" by Mary Ilyushina.
There are indications that the Wagner Group intends to set off on a new path in Africa. Alexander Ivanov, the head of a shadowy group called the Commonwealth of Officers for International Security, which manages Russian military instructors working in the Central African Republic, said he had spoken to Wagner Group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin and confirmed that some of the organization's assets in Africa had been sold. But despite the changing structure of the business in Africa, Prigozhin intends not to curtail but to expand its presence in Africa.
Panorama Portal posted on 3 July 2023 a commentary titled "The Wagner Mutiny Damages Russia's Policy in Africa" by Pavel K. Baer, Peace Research Institute in Oslo.
It will be difficult for Russian special services to reconstitute the Wagner Group. The key people who run the organization are too closely associated with Yevgeniy Prigozhin and its authority cannot be easily transferred to a newly established quasi-private paramilitary enterprise. Moscow's space for both diplomatic intrigues and military intervention in Africa has contracted sharply and irreversibly.
The Washington Post published on 1 July 2023 an article titled "After Mutiny, Kremlin Looks to Unwind Holdings Tied to Wagner Mercenary Boss" by Mary Ilyushina, Rachel Chason, Robyn Dixon, and John Hudson.
Russia has sought to reassure African leaders who relied on the Wagner Group for security that the company will continue to operate, but it is not clear that will be possible while also cutting off Yevgeniy Prigozhin from Russian government funding. There are other private military companies in Russia, but none seem positioned to replace Wagner in Africa.
A Russian investigative expert on the Wagner Group argues that in the absence of Prigozhin, his conglomerate of numerous companies will either cease to exist or it will degenerate into something completely different, incapable of the same level of activity.
The New York Times published on 29 June 2023 an article titled "Can Russia Tame Wagner in Africa Without Destroying It?" by Elian Peltier and Raja Abdulrahim.
With the former head of the Wagner Group now in exile in Belarus, it is not clear how Russia will maintain the organization. In Africa, it has so many separate parts and shell companies that the Russian government may not even be aware of all of them.
Reuters published on 29 June 2023 an article titled "What Does the Wagner Group Do? Operations in Africa and the Rest of the World Explained."
The article provides a brief explanation on what Russia's mercenary Wagner Group is doing in Ukraine, Belarus, Syria, Libya, Central African Republic, Mali, and Sudan.
