War on the Rocks published on 9 October 2024 a commentary titled "After Prigozhin, the Wagner Group's Enduring Impact" by Jack Margolin.
The current iteration of the Wagner Group continues both military and commercial operations in Mali and the Central African Republic in close coordination with Russian security services. Russia allows the Wagner Group to survive. At the same time, there is no unified Russian plan for Africa.
The Russia Program at George Washington University published in September 2024 a carefully researched study titled "After Prigozhin Does Wagner Group Have a Future?" by Antonio Giustozzi and David Lewis, Royal United Services Institute.
Following the assassination of Yevgeniy Prigozhin, his son Pavel, has been working to establish the Wagner business on more independent footing. Th Russian government has accepted a compromise in the case of Mali and the Central African Republic and included the Wagner Group in its revised contracts. Wagner proved irreplaceable as far as engaging in combat was concerned. These African regimes showed a clear preference for trusting regime security to Wagner.
After some months attempting to figure out how to move on from Wagner, the Russian Ministry of Defense accepted that there was no real alternative to Wagner in Mali and the CAR and that having Wagner take on the most controversial jobs might continue to serve Moscow's interests. Pavel Prigozhin appears to have been exploring options for operating independently of the Ministry of Defense but, in the end, might not need to separate completely from it.
Foreign Policy published on 27 December 2023 an article titled "Russia Is Divvying Up Prigozhin's Empire Among Putin's Cronies" by Lucian Stiano-Daniels, Colgate University.
The author argues that former Wagner Group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin may have been killed not just as punishment for treason but also to bring the organization's lucrative African operations under direct state control. Russia's Defense Ministry is expected to take over Wagner Group operations in Africa.
The New York Times published on 8 September 2023 an article titled "After Prigozhin's Death, A High-Stakes Scramble for His Empire" by Anton Troianovski, Declan Walsh, Eric Schmitt, Vivian Yee, and Julian E. Barnes.
The Wagner Group under Yevgeniy Prigozhin had Russia's most effective fighting force in Ukraine, an online "troll farm" that was instrumental in undercutting democratic institutions around the world, and mercenaries in Africa and Syria that propped up autocrats and helped increase Russian influence.
Two Russian intelligence services, the foreign intelligence service (SVR) and military intelligence agency (GRU), are vying to take over parts of the Wagner operation. The SVR is looking to assume control of the propaganda and disinformation component and the GRU the mercenary operation.
Project Syndicate published on 5 September 2023 a commentary titled "What Yevgeny Prigozhin's Death Means for Africa" by Jaynisha Patel.
In the continuing speculation about the future of the mercenary Wagner Group in Africa, the author argues that without access to Kremlin resources it will most likely become a shadow of its former self.
The New York Times published on 25 August 2023 an article titled "Wagner Group May Have Lost 'Mythic Appeal' in Africa" by Elian Peltier.
Russia is working to assure African client governments of the mercenary Wagner Group that it is taking charge of the organization. Other Russian military companies more closely affiliated with the Kremlin may also seek to recruit Wagner mercenaries.
The Washington Post published on 25 August 2023 an article titled "Before Prigozhin Plane Crash, Russia Was Preparing for Life After Wagner" by Mary Ilushina, Francesca Ebel, Rachel Chason, and Claire Parker.
The article identifies other Russian private military companies (PMCs) that may try to compete with Wagner in the African market. One is Redut, a PMC controlled by the Russian Defense Ministry. Another is Konvoi, which has close ties with the Russian Defense Ministry.
