The Prospects and Limitations of Russia's Africa Corps

 The Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey published in September 2025 a study titled "Putin's New Frontier: The Prospects and Limitations of Africa Corps" by Hanna Notte.

The study chronicles the emergence of the Africa Corps and assesses its activities since the summer of 2023 in relevant African states.  It shows how the Africa Corps consolidated its position in Libya and Mali, where the Wagner Group had a legacy presence on the ground; how it embraced new opportunities in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Equatorial Guinea; in which countries there are indications that the Africa Corps might attempt to make inroads in the future; and where the Wagner Group continues to operate as Wagner--in the Central African Republic.  

Africa's Critical Minerals and Russia, China, and the US

The Africa Policy Research Institute published on 29 September 2025 an analysis titled "From Minerals to Influence: Resource-for-Security Deals Reshaping Power Dynamics in Africa" by Amandine Gnanguenon and Marius Kretzschmar.   

Critical raw materials, especially minerals, have become Africa's major attraction for Russia, China, and the United States.  Each country has a different approach for linking critical minerals to its security interests.  

Chinese and Russian Relations with Africa

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published in November 2023 a paper titled "The Dragon and the Bear in Africa: Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations" by Robert E. Hamilton, U.S. Army War College.  

This report analyzes Chinese and Russian diplomatic, military, and economic activity in Africa, the interests each activity is designed to advance, and how Beijing and Moscow interact in each of these areas.  The report is based on a chapter in an upcoming book.

The report concludes that diplomatically and economically, China dwarfs Russia in Africa.  Militarily Russia still retains a significant, if unconventional and unacknowledged, presence.  While they share the goal of undermining Western influence, for Russia this goal overrides all others.  Where China seeks to promote its model of governance, Russia seeks to undermine that of Western countries.  

Chinese-Russian interaction in Africa is a mixture of cooperative, complementary, compartmented, and competitive behavior.  Rather than coordinate their activities so that they are independent but mutually supporting, the two often simply stay out each other's way, both functionally and geographically.  While China and Russia do not overtly compete in Africa, some of their objectives are misaligned which could cause problems moving forward.  

The Future of the Wagner Model in Africa

 The CTC Sentinel published in September 2023 an analysis titled "After Prigozhin: The Future of the Wagner Model in Africa" by Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, and Marcel Plichta.

Wagner Group personnel in Africa appear poised to carry on their original missions given the importance of the continent to Russia's broader strategic ambitions.  Moscow has signaled a tolerance, if not need, for Wagner or a Wagner-like entity in Africa.  Abandoning Wagner clients would severely undermine Russia's influence on the continent.