Is US-China Cooperation in Africa Possible?

 The Asia Society Policy Institute posted this week a commentary titled "Avoiding Conflicts and Ensuring U.S.-China Cooperation in Africa: An African Perspective" by Abdeta Beyene, Centre for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation in Addis Ababa.

The author argues that the United States and China have the potential to move beyond competition and instead foster meaningful cooperation in Africa.  He suggests a number of ways that China-US collaboration could work to the benefit of Africa.

Comment:  The author is correct that there is the potential for US-China cooperation in Africa and a number of years ago there actually was some modest cooperation.  The prospect for US-China cooperation in Africa is dependent, however, on the existing Sino-American bilateral relationship, which has been severely strained in recent years.  Until there is significant improvement in the China-US bilateral relationship, there is almost no prospect for collaboration in Africa.   

China and India Compete in Indian Ocean

 The Diplomat published on 14 March 2024 a commentary titled "China and India's Intense Contest for Influence" by Jabin T. Jacob, Shiv Nadar University.

India has been closely watching Chinese actions in the Indian Ocean in island countries such as Maldives and Mauritius and has responded strongly in cases where its security was directly affected.  

Chinese and Russian Relations with Africa

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published in November 2023 a paper titled "The Dragon and the Bear in Africa: Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations" by Robert E. Hamilton, U.S. Army War College.  

This report analyzes Chinese and Russian diplomatic, military, and economic activity in Africa, the interests each activity is designed to advance, and how Beijing and Moscow interact in each of these areas.  The report is based on a chapter in an upcoming book.

The report concludes that diplomatically and economically, China dwarfs Russia in Africa.  Militarily Russia still retains a significant, if unconventional and unacknowledged, presence.  While they share the goal of undermining Western influence, for Russia this goal overrides all others.  Where China seeks to promote its model of governance, Russia seeks to undermine that of Western countries.  

Chinese-Russian interaction in Africa is a mixture of cooperative, complementary, compartmented, and competitive behavior.  Rather than coordinate their activities so that they are independent but mutually supporting, the two often simply stay out each other's way, both functionally and geographically.  While China and Russia do not overtly compete in Africa, some of their objectives are misaligned which could cause problems moving forward.  

China-US Competition in Africa

 The New York Times published on 23 August 2023 an article titled "China Tries to Increase Its Clout in Africa Amid Rivalry With the U.S." by David Pierson and Lynsey Chutel.  

Chinese President Xi Jinping sees himself as the leader of the developing world in China's effort to offer an alternative to the US-led global order.  Africa is an emerging battleground for global influence.  

China-US Agricultural Competition in Africa

 The National Interest published on 14 August 2023 a commentary titled "It's time for U.S. Agriculture Leaders to Challenge China in Africa" by Kip E. Tom, international consultant on farm production.

The U.S. needs to present a better vision for Africa's future than China--one in which the continent's vast agricultural potential is used to develop self-sufficiency, environmental stability, and economic prosperity.  

Predicting Africa's Future between China and the West

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published on 3 July 2023 a commentary titled "Peak China, a Declining USA and the Future of Africa" by Jakkie Cilliers, Institute for Security Studies in South Africa.

The Institute for Security Studies' African Futures and Innovation program has concluded that the next two decades will bring a more complex, multipolar and less Western world to Africa, one in which regional rather than global connectedness is growing.  

If Africa wants to grow, reduce poverty and provide jobs for its large working-age population, it must trade and engage with China, Europe, and the United States and increase its relations with the emerging South on its own terms.  Above all, inclusive growth in Africa requires global stability, particularly an end to the competition between China and the United States for influence on the continent.  Europe steadily emerges as the swing region globally, moderating and bridging these global divisions.  

Military Cooperation and Competition in the Indian Ocean

 The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) published on 2 June 2023 a paper titled "The State of Defence Cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region" by Antoine Levesques and Viraj Solanki.

Looking to the early June IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, the authors noted the increased tempo of defense cooperation initiatives in the Indian Ocean region as relations between Bejing and New Delhi became more conflictual beginning in May 2020 in the aftermath of border clashes that led to a zero-sum mentality.  India thus turned to the US-aligned Quad to bolster its regional strategy while China took a series of tangible steps in the Indian Ocean region to improve its security presence.  

China's Success in Africa Due Largely to Absence of Competition

 Foreign Policy published on 22 May 2023 a commentary titled "U.S. Apathy Paved the Way for China in Africa" by Howard W. French.

The author argues that the rise of China in Africa has been a result largely of little competition from the West or anyone else.  

US-China Competition for African Minerals

 The South China Morning Post published on 9 April 2023 an article titled "China-US Battle for African Influence Shifts to Green Critical Minerals" by Jevans Nyabiage.

The article discusses China-US competition for critical minerals in countries such as Tanzania, Zambia, DRC, and Zimbabwe.   

Can America Compete Effectively with China in Africa?

 Ken Opalo, Georgetown University, posted on 27 March 2023 a commentary titled "On America's Structural Inability to Effectively Compete with China in Africa." 

While the author makes some valid points, the overall analysis is excessively critical of the American ability to compete in Africa and understates the challenges faced by China. 

Beijing has over the past twenty plus years given a higher https://kenopalo.substack.com/p/on-americas-structural-inabilitydiplomatic priority to Africa than has Washington.  While the future holds no guarantee, the Biden administration is clearly trying to rectify this long-standing deficiency in U.S. foreign policy.  It is much too soon to write off the U.S. diplomatic effort.   

In 2009, China did become Africa's single largest (the EU collectively remains larger) trade partner, passing the United States, which began importing increasingly less oil from Africa because of growing domestic production. China subsequently increased its trade lead over the United States and this is an area where America needs to do better.  At the same time, it is important to note that China has maintained a significant trade surplus with Africa for the past ten years, an issue that has become a concern for a number of African countries that have large and long-standing trade deficits with China.  On the other hand, African countries collectively have a trade surplus with the United States even after the sharp drop in oil imports from the continent.  

China does finance more infrastructure in Africa than any other country but nearly all of these projects are based on loans, often at commercial rates, that must be repaid to Chinese banks.  These are not Chinese investments except in the case of an equity component in some African ports; they are African government investments.  They are appreciated by African governments when they cannot find financing elsewhere.  Washington makes a much smaller contribution to infrastructure development through its support for World Bank and African Development Bank loans and Millennium Challenge Corporation grants.  

The U.S. private sector has not taken Africa as seriously as it should, but it is not confined as suggested by the author to oil and airplane companies.  Major American companies such as Caterpillar, Procter and Gamble, Ford, Google, Cummins, General Electric, IBM, and Coca Cola, to name a few, are active in Africa.  Total American and Chinese foreign direct investment stock in Africa is about the same.  

The United States has for decades been the single largest source of humanitarian aid, especially food, to Africa.  The author argues that U.S. humanitarian aid other than PEPFAR has had little impact on African development.  While that might be so, it would be worth asking the millions of Africans who are alive today because of American food donations over the years if they believe this U.S. intervention was helpful.  

The author argues that American food aid is tied to crops grown in the United States, which does little to boost African agriculture.  He acknowledges, likewise, that Chinese loans are tied to Chinese contractors (and I would add significant quantities of Chinese materials and even a component of Chinese labor) but they are good because they build things.  Remember these are based on loans; African governments pay Chinese companies for these projects but they don't pay the United States for humanitarian assistance.  

It is further argued that U.S. food aid focuses on marginalized African populations while Chinese loans for infrastructure result in projects that benefit more politically engaged elements of the population.  First, it's not clear that persons who survived famines in the Sahel or Ethiopia as a result of U.S. food aid decades ago remained marginalized throughout their lives and, second, even if they did, they are people deserving of help. 

The security sector is not part of the author's analysis.  It is true that China sells more arms in Sub-Saharan Africa than does the United States but Washington does far more military training and is generally more engaged with militaries across the continent than is China.   

The commentary does not deal with the issue of soft power such as music, sports, movies, media, and culture.  While the U.S. government has a minimal role in American soft power, it is an important part of American engagement in Africa.  China's soft power in Africa, especially control of media, tends to be government directed.  My experience in Africa is that American soft power is much preferred over Chinese soft power.

Consequently, I conclude that the United States is able to compete effectively with China or any other country in Africa.  It needs to do better, but it has the ability to compete with anyone and is doing so today.  

Africa's Trade Dilemma: Cheap Chinese Imports or More Expensive Kenyan Products?

 Kenya's Star published on 4 March 2023 a commentary titled "Why Kenya Can No Longer Make the Goods It Used To" by Godfrey Kimega.

A Chinese entrepreneur opened "China Square" shopping mall in Nairobi in January.  It became popular with Kenyan consumers because of its low prices for imported Chinese goods.  Kenyan traders protested, forcing the government to briefly shut down the mall, because the traders could not sell comparable Kenyan products at the same low prices.  The government subsequently allowed "China Square" to reopen.

Comment:  This is an issue playing out across Africa.  The cost of production in Kenya and some other African countries is higher than the cost of equivalent imported Chinese goods (and goods from some other countries).  African manufacturers and vendors are just not able to compete.  Consumers are pleased with the lower prices, but manufacturers and sellers are upset.

A Saudi Commentary on US-China Competition in Africa

 The London-based Al Majalla, owned by the Saudi Research and Media Group, published on 28 February 2023 a commentary titled "US-China Competition in Africa Heats Up with Beijing in the Lead" by Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy.  

The author concludes that the US maintains an historical advantage in North Africa, but China is rapidly catching up.  On the other hand, China has become the dominant player in Sub-Sahara Africa with the US playing catch up.  

Kenyan Traders Protest Chinese Competition

 Reuters published on 28 February 2023 an article titled "Kenyan Traders Protest against Chinese Competitors Cheap Prices" by Duncan Miriri.

More than a thousand Kenyan traders protested in Nairobi against a new Chinese-owned retail shop they accuse of undercutting them with prices that are about 50 percent lower.  

Comment: While the Kenyan traders are rightly unhappy, Kenyan consumers likely welcome the lower prices.  The question is whether Chinese importers are playing by the rules and paying full customs duties.  

China Not Mentioned at US-Africa Leaders Summit, But Is Unspoken Part of Agenda

 The New York Times published on 14 December 2022 an article titled "The U.S. Wants to Counter China's Moves in Africa.  But American Officials Say Not to Mention That" by Edward Wong.  

By design, China is the unstated topic at the US-Africa Leaders Summit, but most of the media coverage of the event brings up the topic anyway.  

Comment:  It is hard to ignore China's role in Africa even when the topic of the day is US-Africa relations, but the US-China competition component is being blown way out of proportion of its true importance.  

Foreign Policy Implications of China's 20th Party Congress

 The International Crisis Group published on 21 October 2022 an analysis titled "The Foreign Policy Implications of China's Twentieth Party Congress" by Amanda Hsiao and Ivy Kwek.

China is facing growing challenges at home and abroad.  The report for the 20th Party Congress reflects a greater aspiration to challenge Western dominance.  It downplays the Belt and Road Initiative and highlights the new and still ill-defined Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative.

Great Power Competition in Africa

 Foreign Policy published on 10 August 2022 a commentary titled "A Little Great-Power Competition Is Healthy for Africa" by Howard W. French.

Most African states still prefer a democratic form of government.  In its competition with China and others for influence in Africa, the United States needs to focus on improving governance and building capacity on the continent.  

US-China Competition and Cooperation in Africa

 Two George Washington University student groups--U.S.-China Strategic Studies Organization and the Onero Institute--hosted a one hour podcast on 23 February 2022 titled "U.S.-China Competition and Cooperation in Africa: A Moderated Discussion with Ambassador David Shinn" moderated by GW student Tsung Han Tsai.  

This was a wide ranging discussion comparing China-Africa and US-Africa relations, competition between China and the United States in Africa, and the ability or inability of China and the United States to cooperate on the continent.  

Event: US-China Competition and Cooperation in Africa

 The Onero Institute China Program and the US China Strategic Studies Organization are hosting on Wednesday, 23 February, from 6:00 to 7:00 pm EST at George Washington University a session with me titled "US-China Competition and Cooperation in Africa" moderated by Tsung-Han Tsai.   

It is open to the public via Zoom; the link will be emailed after registration.  Ambassador Shinn and Dr. Joshua Eisenman of Notre Dame recently completed the draft of a second book on China-Africa relations, which is undergoing peer review.  

China/Russia Cooperation/Competition in Africa

 The Eurasia Daily Monitor published on 29 June 2021 an analysis titled "China and Russia Both Cooperating and Competing in Africa" by Paul Goble.

The author concludes that Russia is likely to fall even further behind China in Africa because Beijing is pursuing a much longer-term approach that involves integrating the continent into the Belt and Road Initiative.  

The Elements of the China Challenge

 In the waning days of the Trump administration, the State Department's policy planning staff just released a 72-page document titled "The Elements of the China Challenge."

A relatively sober document, it argues that meeting the China challenge requires the United States to return to fundamentals.  To secure freedom, America must refashion its foreign policy in light of ten tasks.  The tasks are reasonable and even include non-Trumpian goals such as the need to "strengthen its alliance system" and look "for opportunities to cooperate with Beijing subject to norms of fairness and reciprocity."  

The document devotes only a half page to Africa.  It emphasizes negative issues such as China's interest in acquiring Africa's mineral wealth while disadvantaging American companies, contributing to Africa's debt problems, failing to meet reasonable international standards of sustainability and transparency, and engaging in racism and discrimination against Africans in China.  

The complete document is available in the Axios summary.