State of Somalia in 2025

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in July 2026 a report titled "State of Somalia 2025."

The report reviews the major political, security, economic, diplomatic, humanitarian, and regional developments that shaped Somalia in 2025.  Somalia recorded notable gains in international diplomacy, institutional development, regional integration, and state visibility.  It also experienced persistent political polarization, federal-state tensions, humanitarian vulnerability, and unresolved questions surrounding constitutional and electoral processes that continued to challenge state-building efforts.

Somalia demonstrated growing international relevance and achieved several important diplomatic and institutional milestones.  Yet progress remained constrained by external interference, including Israel's violation of Somalia's sovereignty through its recognition of Somaliland, alongside political fragmentation, unresolved constitutional questions, persistent insecurity, and recurring humanitarian crises.

China's Role in Guinea's Booming Economy

 Ecofin Agency published on 22 June 2026 an article titled "Guinea Is Africa's Fastest-growing Economy: The Boom Is Real--but Narrow" by Idriss Linge.

Due mostly to the export of bauxite and iron ore, Guinea is Africa's fastest-growing economy in 2026 at 8.8 percent.  Guinea exports annually about $14.5 billion of raw materials; China is the largest importer at $4.5 billion.  

The risk for Guinea is a reliance on bauxite and iron ore exports, a lack of processing of these minerals at home, and the relative lack of intra-African trade.  A drop in commodity prices could severely damage Guinea's economy.  

Can Ethiopia's Strong Growth Rate Continue?

 Foreign Policy published on 18 February 2026 an article titled "What's Behind Ethiopia's Double Digit Growth: And Can Addis Ababa's Boon Last?" by Nosmot Gdabamosi. 

Ethiopia's impressive growth rate is being driven by floating the exchange rate for its currency, the birr, and strong exports of coffee and gold.  But high debt and involvement in Sudan's civil war could reverse the current positive numbers.   

Sharp Increase in Chinese Exports to Africa

CNBC published on 24 November 2025 an article titled "Chinese Consumer Brands Flood into Africa as Old Investment Model Fades and Exports Jump" by Evelyn Cheng and Victoria Yeo.

Chinese exports to Africa during the first three quarters of 2025 have surged 28 percent year-on-year, following a 57 percent increase from 2020 to 2024.  China is increasingly emphasizing consumer sales in Africa as profit margins narrow at home.  This is putting added pressure on African companies that produce consumer goods, although some Chinese companies are moving production to the continent.  

Impact of China's Economic Slowdown on Africa

 The Atlantic Council published in November 2025 a study titled "China's Economic Slowdown and Spillovers to Africa" by Matthew Mingey, Jeremy Smith, and Laura Gormley.  

This report investigates how different projections of China's economic growth and structure over the next five years will affect trade and financial engagement with the African continent and what outcomes will mean for decision-makers.

The best long-term outcome for Africa is likely one in which China accepts the cost of reform to implement slower, but more stable growth.  While countries could previously envision the net benefits of close trading relationships with China in 2030, trade now presents both opportunity and threat: opportunity in the form of cheap imports but complication in the form of persistent trade imbalances and overcapacity in manufacturing.  Under any growth scenario, finance from China's banks and investors will continue to decline as China's domestic financial system evolves.  

Strong Growth Rate in Ethiopia

 Finance in Africa posted on 12 October 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia's GDP Accelerates as Exports Hit Record $8.3bn" by Amarachi Orjiude-Ndibe. 

Ethiopia's economy expanded 8.8 percent in fiscal year 2024/25, which ended on 8 July.  Ethiopia expects to achieve 9 percent growth for the current fiscal year.  Annual inflation remains a concern at almost 14 percent last fiscal year.  

Growing Gap Between Ethiopia's Rich and Poor

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 April 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Capital Problem" by Hambisa Belina, Morgan State University in Baltimore, Maryland.

The author argues that as the capital city of Addis Ababa rapidly develops, "much of the nation is suffering and decaying."  The gap is growing between the wealthy few and the poor majority and the current trajectory is unsustainable.  

South Sudan's Economy in Severe Crisis

 The World Bank published in March 2025 a major report titled "South Sudan Economic Monitor: A Pathway to Overcome the Crisis."

South Sudan's socio-economic outcomes have worsened over the past decade due to recurrent conflicts, fragility, and macroeconomic mismanagement compounded by global economic and climate shocks.  This dire situation is the result of: (1) nascent institutions and weak governance; (2) persistent mismanagement of the country's abundant natural capital, namely oil, and (3) recurrent community-level conflicts and violence that led to nationwide armed conflict in 2016 and localized ongoing conflict after the 2018 peace agreement.

South Sudan is now facing a severe crisis.  The economy is projected to contract by 30 percent in fiscal year 2024/2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of negative growth.  In fiscal year 2025, GDP per capita is estimated to decline to around half of the fiscal year 2020 levels.

Fixing Africa's Trade Deficit with China

 The China Global South Project published on 24 January 2025 a commentary titled "The Persistent China-Africa Trade Imbalance--Is It China's Fault?" by C. Geraud Neema Byamungu.  

Africa continues to have a persistent trade deficit with China--$62 billion in 2024.  The author argues that Africa is structurally ill-equipped to rebalance the trade relationship and must build a strong, competitive manufacturing sector to move beyond its dependence on raw material exports.  For its part, Chinese companies can invest more heavily in downstream segments of African raw material value chains.  

Kenya's Debt Crisis and China

India's Firstpost posted on 26 June 2024 a 6-minute video titled "Is Chinese Debt the Reason Kenya Wants to Raise Taxes?" 

The video spells out the background of Kenya's $76 billion public debt, noting that much of it is owned to the World Bank, IMF, African Development Bank, and reimbursement of Eurobonds.  But China is the single largest bilateral holder of Kenyan debt and Nairobi faces an upcoming repayment to Beijing of $1.2 billion that it is hard pressed to manage.

Recent Trends in China-Africa Economic Relations

 CNBC Africa posted on 25 June 2024 an article titled "Why Strong Regional Value Chains Will Be Vital to the Next Chapter of China and Africa's Economic Relationship" by Chido Munyati.

This analysis looks at new and future trends in the China-Africa economic relationship.  They include a sharp reduction in China's loans to Africa, less engagement by China's state-run enterprises and more by the private sector, a focus on green energy, and lower Chinese oil imports from Africa.

Africa and World Happiness Report 2024

 The massive World Happiness Report 2024 is now available online, published in partnership with Gallup, the Oxford Wellbeing Research Centre, The UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, and the World Happiness Report's editorial board.  The six key variables in the study are GDP per capita, social support, healthy life expectancy, freedom, generosity, and corruption.  

The overall global happiness 2021-2023 scores are based on individuals' own assessments of their lives, in particular their answers to the Cantril ladder life-evaluation question in the Gallup World Poll. They are not based on any index of the six key variables in the study.  See pages 14-17 of the report. 

Out of 143 countries in the study, the five highest ranked African countries are war-torn Libya (66)!!, Mauritius (70), South Africa (83), Algeria (85), and Congo Brazzaville (89).  The five lowest ranked African countries are Lesotho (141), Sierra Leone (140), Congo Kinshasa (139), Zimbabwe (138), and Botswana (137).  For purposes of comparison, the United States ranked 23 and China 60.

Possible Impact of Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal on Djibouti's Economy

 World Politics Review published on 2 February 2024 an analysis titled "The Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal Could Sink Djibouti's Economy" by Francisco Serrano.

The port of Djibouti accounts for 95 percent of Ethiopia's trade and 75 percent of Djibouti's GDP is dependent on transport services with Ethiopia.  The deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, if it materializes, could have a huge negative impact on Djibouti.  

China's Economic Slowdown Impact's Africa's Growth

 The IMF Country Focus published on 9 November 2023 an analysis titled "China's Slowing Economy Will Hit Sub-Saharan Africa's Growth" by Hany Abdel-Latif, Wenjie Chen, Michele Fornino, and Henry Rawlings.  

A one percentage point decline in China's growth rate could reduce growth in sub-Saharan Africa by 0.25 points.  China's loans to Africa have also plummeted.  

Sub-Saharan Africa's Economic Relations with China

 The International Monetary Fund published in October 2023 a short summary titled "At a Crossroads: Sub-Saharan Africa's Economic Relations with China." (Scroll down highlighted reference to access this report.)

One-fifth of Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) exports go to China and China is the single largest source of imports for SSA.  China's share of SSA sovereign debt is only about 6 percent of the total debt and five countries (Angola, Kenya, Zambia, Cameroon, and Nigeria) account for 55 percent of the official bilateral debt to China.  Beijing's share of total SSA foreign direct investment stock is only 4.4 percent.  

China is retrenching its financing activities in SSA amid a growth slowdown and reducing its appetite for risk.  The projected future deceleration in China's growth is likely to affect African trading partners negatively over the medium term, mainly through reduced trade.  

Predicting Africa's Future between China and the West

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published on 3 July 2023 a commentary titled "Peak China, a Declining USA and the Future of Africa" by Jakkie Cilliers, Institute for Security Studies in South Africa.

The Institute for Security Studies' African Futures and Innovation program has concluded that the next two decades will bring a more complex, multipolar and less Western world to Africa, one in which regional rather than global connectedness is growing.  

If Africa wants to grow, reduce poverty and provide jobs for its large working-age population, it must trade and engage with China, Europe, and the United States and increase its relations with the emerging South on its own terms.  Above all, inclusive growth in Africa requires global stability, particularly an end to the competition between China and the United States for influence on the continent.  Europe steadily emerges as the swing region globally, moderating and bridging these global divisions.  

Regional Development Needed in Horn of Africa

 Brookings published on 15 November 2022 a paper titled "Tackling Fragility and Promoting Integration in the Horn of Africa through 'Development Diplomacy'" by Vijay Pillai and Miguel de Corral, both with the World Bank.  

A new development approach is needed for the Horn of Africa that focuses on regional solutions and policy reforms.  The authors discuss the merits of the Horn of Africa Initiative that tries to achieve these goals.  

Ethiopia: Civil War Delays Debt Relief

 Reuters published on 15 October an article titled "Ethiopia Debt Relief Delay Partly Due to Civil War, State Finance Minister Says" by Jorgelina Do Rosario and Rachel Savage.

Progress on Ethiopia's debt relief has been delayed by creditors, including its largest holders of debt, China and France.  The International Monetary Fund has not yet completed a debt sustainability analysis.  

Putin's War Imperils Food Security in Africa

 The New Internationalist published on 7 June 2022 an article titled "The War in Ukraine Has Hit Africa's Food Security" by Ugochi Anyaka Oluigbo.

The author argues that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports threatens to cause serious damage to food supplies in Africa, which is heavily dependent on Russian and Ukrainian grain.  

African Economic Outlook 2022

 The African Development Bank published on 25 May 2022 its massive African Economic Outlook 2022.

This document contains a wealth of information on African economies, including the impact of COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and climate change.