State of Somalia in 2025

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in July 2026 a report titled "State of Somalia 2025."

The report reviews the major political, security, economic, diplomatic, humanitarian, and regional developments that shaped Somalia in 2025.  Somalia recorded notable gains in international diplomacy, institutional development, regional integration, and state visibility.  It also experienced persistent political polarization, federal-state tensions, humanitarian vulnerability, and unresolved questions surrounding constitutional and electoral processes that continued to challenge state-building efforts.

Somalia demonstrated growing international relevance and achieved several important diplomatic and institutional milestones.  Yet progress remained constrained by external interference, including Israel's violation of Somalia's sovereignty through its recognition of Somaliland, alongside political fragmentation, unresolved constitutional questions, persistent insecurity, and recurring humanitarian crises.

Navigating Federalism and Elections in Somalia

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in November 2025 a policy brief titled "Somalia's 2026 Mandate Test: Navigating Elections and Federal Tensions."

This policy brief examines the federal government's evolving role in Federal Member States' elections, the competing interpretations of constitutional authority, and the political and logistical obstacles to direct voting.  

Somali Arms Flows Hinder Peace

 Ethiopia Insight published on 29 September 2025 a commentary titled "Weapons of Discord" by Adam Daud Ahmed, Horn of Africa security analyst.

Somalia's federal system of government has resulted in the indiscriminate flow of arms to clan militias, which has exacerbated conflict in the country.  The author suggests the United Nations needs to introduce conditional arms controls.  

Analysis and Recommendations for a Post-Conflict Somalia

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in June 2025 a document titled "Somalia's Post-Conflict Experience: Political Rifts, Security Challenges, and Social Crises."

It contains 6 conference papers by different authors from the December 2022 Annual Forum for Ideas held in Djibouti and hosted by the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies. The first section examines governance crises, security threats, political divisions and three key types of conflict that continue to shape the political and social realities of post-civil war Somalia.  The second section presents viable solutions aimed at fostering reconciliation and social cohesion.

A key lesson to be drawn from this analysis is that the interplay between governance disputes, militant insurgencies, and social intolerance among the people demonstrates the complexity of Somalia's challenges.  

State Building in a Somali Region: Galmudug

 The Heritage Institute published in March 2024 a study titled "Galmudug: Governance, State Formation, Conflict Dynamics, and Reconciliation" by Yusuf Sheikh Omar and Ahmed Barre.

The study investigates factors shaping the processes of state formation in Galmudug such as clan politics, economic considerations, conflict dynamics, governance, elections, the condition of internally displaced persons, peace, and reconciliation processes.  

Land At the Center of Somali Conflict

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in December 2023 a report titled "Somalia: Land Governance Review" by Surer Qassim Mohamed, Cambridge University.  

Land is a central point of contention in Somalia's fragmented political landscape and remains a significant driver of contemporary conflict.  Somalia's land governance architecture is a patchwork of unclear and overlapping authorities, overlapping claims to land use, large-scale land grabbing, and unclear land tenure.

This report aims to provide an overview of the current state of land governance in Somalia, examining the historical context, hybrid legal framework, and current practices around land ownership, access, and control.  

Avoiding Conflict in Somalia's Galmudug State

 The International Crisis Group published on 25 September 2023 an analysis titled "Avoiding a New Cycle of Conflict in Somalia's Galmudug State."

The Somali federal member state of Galmudug has experienced recurrent strife during its eight-year existence.  The causes are elite infighting, clan rivalries and battles with non-state armed groups.  Interference from Mogadishu often worsens matters.  Though Galmudug is quiet at present, elections likely coming in 2024 could increase tensions.  The al-Shabaab insurgency is also strong in the area.  

Somalia: A Review of 2022

 The Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute just published a report titled "State of Somalia 2022 Year in Review." 

The report documents key developments that shaped Somalia throughout 2022 and provides analysis to support peace and state building in the country.  

View of Somalia's Campaign Against Al-Shabaab

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 24 March 2023 a 42-minute podcast titled "Somalia's Latest Battles Against Al-Shabaab" with Richard Atwood speaking to Omar Mahmood, ICG's senior analyst for East Africa.

The podcast reports that the Somali National Army's campaign, mostly in central Somalia, has reversed some of al-Shabaab's gains of the past few years, forcing the militants out of several areas, including some important towns.  Al-Shabaab continues to mount resistance in parts of central Somalia and still holds much of southern Somalia.  In recaptured areas, the government must ensure disputes among clans do not flare up again and demonstrate that the Somali government can deliver aid and over time reestablish services like health and education.  The al-Qaeda-linked insurgency has weathered previous offensives only to bounce back.  

Sustaining Gains against Al-Shabaab in Somalia

 The International Crisis Group published on 21 March 2023 an analysis titled "Sustaining Gains in Somalia's Offensive against Al-Shabaab."

The analysis discusses gains made by the government of Somalia against al-Shabaab and steps it should take to reestablish a presence in regions that al-Shabaab controlled for a number of years.  

Somalia: Al-Shabaab Under Increased Pressure

 The International Crisis Group posted on 11 January 2023 a 35 minute podcast titled "Somalia's Offensive against Al-Shabaab" with Omar Mahmood and Alan Boswell.

Over the past few months, Somali government forces have consolidated gains against al-Shabaab in a large-scale offensive in central Somalia initiated by local clan militias.  At the same time, the government is confronting a serious drought.  

Grand Strategies Don't Work in Somalia

 African Arguments published on 18 August 2021 a commentary titled "Why Somalia's Grand Strategies Aren't Working" by Liban Obisye and Liban A. Hussein.

Grand strategies for combatting al-Shabaab are not based on the real capabilities of Somali security forces and available resources.  International partners propose grand schemes that are overly ambitious and lack local credibility.

Who Is Delaying Somalia's Elections?

 Foreign Policy posted on 18 May 2021 a commentary titled "Don't Blame Me for Delaying Somalia's Elections" by Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, President of Somalia.

The president argued that "Somalia's elections have been delayed not because I wish to cling to power, as some have falsely argued, but because of a political impasse that has led to a division between Somalia's federal government and some of its member states on the way forward."

Somalia, COVID-19, and Elections

The International Crisis Group published on 8 May 2020 an analysis titled "COVID-19 in Somalia: A Public Health Emergency in an Electoral Minefield."

Somalia is one of the least prepared countries in the world to deal with COVID-19 yet has parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2020 and a presidential election in February 2021. Postponement of the elections would be received badly by opposition parties.

State of Somalia 2019

The Mogadishu-based-Heritage Institute for Policy Studies just published its State of Somalia Report 2019. It focuses on the main developments and key trends in politics, security, economy, social services, and the role of external actors throughout 2019.

During 2019, the political situation was characterized by major upheavals and a deepening rift between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States. Talks between Somaliland and the FGS remained frozen.

Stacking the Deck for Somali Elections

African Arguments posted on 28 November 2019 a commentary titled "Somalia: President Farmaajo Stacks the Deck to Secure a Second Term" by Sakariye Cismaan, political commentator on Somalia.

The author argues that Somalia's next presidential election will likely be conducted within the 329-member Somali parliament because the security situation has not improved sufficiently to hold country wide elections scheduled for 2020.

The State of Somali Piracy

The institute for Security Studies published on 7 November 2018 an analysis titled "Ten Years On, Is Somali Piracy Still a Threat?" by Denys Reva.

There have only been two pirate attacks off Somalia since the beginning of 2018 as compared to 160 for all of 2011. The author argues, however, that it is still essential to address the root cause of piracy in Somalia.

Somalia: Internal Fights Over a Small Pie

The Institute for Security Studies published on 23 October 2018 an analysis titled "Somalia's Zero-sum Politics Will See No Winners" by Omar S. Mahmood.

Somalia's federal partners continue to fight over limited resources. The author argues that the solution is to work together to expand the size of the pie rather than fight over the small one that currently defines Somalia.

Somalia Needs a Grand Internal Political Bargain

The Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute for Policy Studies recently posted a policy brief titled "Somalia Needs Conciliatory Not Confrontational Politics."

It calls for a grand political settlement among all stakeholders as the surest way to political stability and ultimately defeating al-Shabaab. It also urges the Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to spare Somalia from Gulf State conflicts.

Another Prescription for Somalia

The Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in October 2017 a policy brief titled "Somalia Needs Conciliatory Not Confrontational Politics."

The brief argues that grand political settlement among all stakeholders is the surest way to political stability and ultimately defeating al-Shabaab. It also urges the Gulf States to spare Somalia from their rivalry.