The Council on Foreign Relations published on 8 October 2026 a background piece titled "Another Hormuz? What to Know About the Houthi Threat to the Red Sea" by Diana Roy.
Each year, approximately 12 to 15 percent of global maritime trade worth more than $1 trillion, including 30 percent of global container traffic transits the Red Sea. This is an excellent summary of the threat posed by the Iran-backed and Yemen-based Houthis to international shipping through the Red Sea.
The Emirates Policy Center published on 9 October 2026 an analysis titled "Visit of Somaliland's President to Washington: Testing Potential Shifts in US Policy and the Trajectory of Bilateral Ties."
Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi visited the US in September in hopes of advancing the country's goal of diplomatic recognition. A meeting with President Trump was not promised and it did not happen.
The analysis concludes that Washington is likely to adopt a policy of calculated openness toward Somaliland while stopping short of formal recognition. Bilateral relations could gradually evolve into a strategic partnership, with the path toward recognition potentially accelerating should sufficient security, political, and regional drivers converge.
Foreign Affairs published on 6 October 2026 an article titled "The New Red Sea Wars" by Alan Boswell.
Policymakers for too long treated the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula as separate strategic regions divided by the Red Sea. That distinction is evaporating as wars on one side of the sea increasingly alter the military calculations on the other. US policy rarely treated the two regions as linked.
New Lines Magazine published on 16 September 2026 an article titled "Somaliland's Uphill Struggle for Recognition in Washington" by Theophile Simon.
Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi is on a month-long visit to the United States in an effort to obtain diplomatic recognition by the Trump administration. While his chances of succeeding are not high, he may well obtain some commitments from Washington that will strengthen Somaliland's relations with the United States.
African Arguments published on 16 September 2026 a commentary titled "The Horn of Africa's Age of Permanent Conflict" by Matthew de Waal.
Foreign patrons have progressively co-opted economic and military architecture in the Horn of Africa. The Horn now faces a transformed conflict system in which the boundaries of war and peace, state and non-state, and domestic and external are breaking down. Drones have exacerbated the situation.
This is not a passing phase of instability but a structural recalibration of politics, with wars becoming harder to contain, distinguish from peace, and end.
Semafor published on 16 September 2026 an article titled "Somaliland's President Puts Everything on the Table for Trump" by Yinka Adegoke.
Somaliland's President Abdirahmin Mohamed Abdullahi "Irro" is in Washington pressing his case for diplomatic recognition. Irro is signaling that Somaliland is open to an American military base in the port of Berbera.
Irro said that Somaliland intends to maintain a relationship with Taiwan, but it welcomes investment from China.
Beirut Wire, an independent news and media company in Beirut, posted on 7 September 2026 an article titled "Somaliland's President Visits Washington in a Historic Push for U.S. Recognition."
Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro is visiting Washington with a high-level delegation to strengthen relations with the United States, expand security cooperation, attract American investment, and advance US recognition of Somaliland. Somalia has sent its own delegation to Washington to counter Somaliland's effort to obtain diplomatic recognition.
The Pulitzer Center posted on 27 August 2026 an article titled "Israel's Ethiopian Asylum Seekers Fight Deportation Efforts" by Theia Chatelle.
Israel's asylum approval rate is 0.1 percent or about 5 people a year. Asylum applications for 1,334 Ethiopian citizens are currently pending, out of about 30,000 total asylum seekers. Most of the others are Eritrean or Sudanese.
Brookings published on 27 August 2026 a commentary titled "Don't Let the Iran War Distract the United States from Africa" by Landry Signe.
The Iran war risks distracting the United States from Africa when competition for critical minerals, trade, and alliances with African countries become more intense. China, France, Russia, UAE, and India are accelerating their engagement on the continent, meaning any American retreat will come at a high geopolitical opportunity cost.
Business Insider Africa published on 24 August 2026 an article titled "After $11.4 Million China Satellite Debt Dispute, Nigeria Turns to Israeli, French Firms for Next-generation Satellites" by Solomon Ekanem.
Nigeria is turning to Israeli and French satellite manufacturers for its next-generation communications infrastructure, months after a dispute with China Great Wall Industry Corporation (CGWIC) exposed the country's dependence on China for critical satellite operations. The decision follows a dispute with CGWIC, which threatened to suspend services over an $11.44 million debt.
The Economist published on 20 August 2026 an article titled "Somaliland Wants to Help Secure the Red Sea."
Somaliland's president says his country can help secure the Red Sea by offering military bases to global powers along its coastline. Somaliland is prepared to offer both the United States and Israel bases at the port of Berbera.
Modern Diplomacy published on 22 August 2026 a commentary titled "Egypt and China's 2026 Military Drills: What They Mean for US and Israeli Security" by Nadia Helmy, Beni Suef University.
The Egyptian-Chinese "Eagles of Civilization" military exercise involving the air forces of both countries reflects Cairo's pursuit of diversifying its arms sources and building operational independence. It also raises concerns in both Washington and Tel Aviv.
Saxafi Media posted on 23 August 2026 an interview with me titled "Inside Washington's Somaliland Dilemma: David Shinn Reveals What U.S. Policy Really Means."
Although much of the interview deals with Somaliland, it covers issues throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond, including US support for Somalia sovereignty, Israel's recognition of Somaliland, importance of Ethiopia, the conflict in Sudan. Egypt's role in the region, security in the Red Sea, competition with China, the role of African diasporas, and the contribution of UN agencies and IGAD.
Military Africa recently posted the "Africa Drone Procurement Report 2026." The dataset comprises 234 procurement records across 34 African nations from at least 21 supplier countries spanning 1980 to 2026. During this period, it identified 1,959 drone units obtained by African countries. From 2020 to 2026, African countries procured 1,054 drone units or 53 percent of the total since 1980.
China was the leading supplier at 587 drones or just under 30 percent of the total procured in Africa. Its Wing Loong armed drones and Rainbow CH series drones went primarily to Egypt (126 units), Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (80), Nigeria (72), Ethiopia (57), and Algeria (49). Chinese drones appeared extensively in active combat zones (Libya, Ethiopia, and Sudan). They are particularly favored for their low cost, availability, and lack of human rights conditionality.
The next most important suppliers after China are Israel (325 drones), Türkiye (291), US (247), and locally manufactured (216). Iran and Russia supply drones to active conflict-zone actors through more opaque channels. Israeli drones have gone primarily to Morocco, with smaller numbers to Ethiopia, Uganda, Zambia, and Libya's Government of National Unity.
Responsible Statecraft posted on 12 August 2026 an article titled "How the Egypt-Ethiopia Feud Could Upend Trump's Plans in Africa" by Jonathan Fenton Harvey.
The United States is sending mixed and confusing signals to Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland on complex relations in the region dealing with allocation of Nile waters and Ethiopia's quest for access to the sea.
The Somali Media Network posted on 8 August 2026 a 42-minute podcast with me hosted by Ismail Gorse on the Horn of Africa.
This is a wide-ranging discussion of current issues in the Horn of Africa and US policy with a special focus on Somalia and Somaliland.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Red Sea" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.
Saudi Arabia announced on 30 July the formation of a Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance to protect shipping in the Red Sea and adjacent waterways following the Bab el-Mandeb Strait blockade of Saudi ships by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. So far, 14 nations have joined the task force.
The Congressional Research Service published on 21 July 2026 a brief titled "Yemen: Conflict, Red Sea Security, and U.S. Policy" by Christopher M. Blanchard.
In March 2025, the Trump administration designated the Iranian-backed Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization. On March 15, 2025, U.S. forces began a military campaign against the Houthis which the administration said was intended to compel them to end attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. The United States and the Houthis agreed to a truce in May 2025, which continues to hold.
The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in July 2026 a report titled "State of Somalia 2025."
The report reviews the major political, security, economic, diplomatic, humanitarian, and regional developments that shaped Somalia in 2025. Somalia recorded notable gains in international diplomacy, institutional development, regional integration, and state visibility. It also experienced persistent political polarization, federal-state tensions, humanitarian vulnerability, and unresolved questions surrounding constitutional and electoral processes that continued to challenge state-building efforts.
Somalia demonstrated growing international relevance and achieved several important diplomatic and institutional milestones. Yet progress remained constrained by external interference, including Israel's violation of Somalia's sovereignty through its recognition of Somaliland, alongside political fragmentation, unresolved constitutional questions, persistent insecurity, and recurring humanitarian crises.
Pakistan's South Asian Chronicle published on 1 August 2026 an article titled "Houthi Red Sea Crisis."
This is a nice summary of the background of the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea and relations with Saudi Arabia.
