Responsible Statecraft posted on 12 August 2026 an article titled "How the Egypt-Ethiopia Feud Could Upend Trump's Plans in Africa" by Jonathan Fenton Harvey.
The United States is sending mixed and confusing signals to Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland on complex relations in the region dealing with allocation of Nile waters and Ethiopia's quest for access to the sea.
The Somali Media Network posted on 8 August 2026 a 42-minute podcast with me hosted by Ismail Gorse on the Horn of Africa.
This is a wide-ranging discussion of current issues in the Horn of Africa and US policy with a special focus on Somalia and Somaliland.
AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Red Sea" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.
Saudi Arabia announced on 30 July the formation of a Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance to protect shipping in the Red Sea and adjacent waterways following the Bab el-Mandeb Strait blockade of Saudi ships by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. So far, 14 nations have joined the task force.
The Congressional Research Service published on 21 July 2026 a brief titled "Yemen: Conflict, Red Sea Security, and U.S. Policy" by Christopher M. Blanchard.
In March 2025, the Trump administration designated the Iranian-backed Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization. On March 15, 2025, U.S. forces began a military campaign against the Houthis which the administration said was intended to compel them to end attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. The United States and the Houthis agreed to a truce in May 2025, which continues to hold.
The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in July 2026 a report titled "State of Somalia 2025."
The report reviews the major political, security, economic, diplomatic, humanitarian, and regional developments that shaped Somalia in 2025. Somalia recorded notable gains in international diplomacy, institutional development, regional integration, and state visibility. It also experienced persistent political polarization, federal-state tensions, humanitarian vulnerability, and unresolved questions surrounding constitutional and electoral processes that continued to challenge state-building efforts.
Somalia demonstrated growing international relevance and achieved several important diplomatic and institutional milestones. Yet progress remained constrained by external interference, including Israel's violation of Somalia's sovereignty through its recognition of Somaliland, alongside political fragmentation, unresolved constitutional questions, persistent insecurity, and recurring humanitarian crises.
Pakistan's South Asian Chronicle published on 1 August 2026 an article titled "Houthi Red Sea Crisis."
This is a nice summary of the background of the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea and relations with Saudi Arabia.
AEIs Critical Threats posted on 23 July 2026 an analysis titled "Houthi Blockade in the Red Sea" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Alexsandar Wiebler.
The Iranian-backed Houthi blockade of the south end of the Red Sea has already disrupted shipping in the Red Sea, causing increased costs and transit delays. The Houthi blockade will further increase fuel shortages, negatively impact African countries that rely on Saudi fuel shipments, and strain the global economy.
CNBC posted on 22 July 2026 an article titled "Houthis Deploy Missiles and Drones to Attack Ships in Southern Red Sea, Naval Group Says" by Spencer Kimball.
Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have completed preparations to attack shipping, including the deployment of missiles and drones positioned near the Bab el-Mandeb choke point at the south end of the Red Sea.
The European Union's naval mission in the Middle East warned commercial ships linked to Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States to avoid transiting the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden.
The Council on Foreign Relations published on 20 July 2026 a background piece titled "Another Hormuz? What to Know About the Houthi Threat to the Red Sea" by Diana Roy.
The Yemen-based and Iranian-backed Houthis' decision to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia opens a new front in the U.S.-Iran war and threatens to choke off the Red Sea's 20-mile-wide Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with potentially major consequences for the global economy.
The International Crisis Group published on 17 July 2026 a commentary titled "As the Horn of Africa Nears Boiling Point, Time for Urgent Diplomacy" by Alan Boswell.
Given the uncertainty about Washington's level of commitment to bring peace to the Horn of Africa, additional Gulf States, the European Union, the United Nations, Norway, and the United Kingdom should step up their engagement.
The Middle East Council on Global Affairs, a policy research institution based in Doha, Qatar, published on 16 July 2026 a commentary titled "Iran War Intensifies U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa" by Mustapha Boudoumi.
Disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted the strategic importance of African choke points such as the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb. The situation in Iran has put increasing focus on China-US competition for critical minerals in Africa.
Foreign Affairs published on 26 June 2026 an article titled "Who Is Winning Africa's Drone Wars?" by Nate Allen and Rida Lyammouri.
Inexpensive drones are fast becoming the weapon of choice in African conflicts. They are being deployed by both governments and insurgent groups. China is now Africa's largest supplier of drones, accounting for a quarter of those procured.
Foreign drones have turned African conflicts such as the civil war in Sudan into destabilizing proxy wars. At least eleven African countries now produce drones including Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Morocco.
Higher Education Today posted about a month ago a 29-minute podcast titled "Culture and History of Somaliland" hosted by Steven Roy Goodman with Jama Musa Jama, Hargeisa Cultural Centre, and Lee Cassanelli, professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania.
This is a positive account filmed in Hargeisa of Somaliland's history and culture, interspersed with video clips of the country.
The Rift Valley Institute recently published a report titled "The New Geopolitics of Eastern Africa."
The British Institute of Eastern Africa, Chatham House, and the Rift Valley Institute convened a group of experts to discuss the ongoing transformation of geopolitics in the Horn of Africa. This paper summarizes their conclusions, noting that the region is experiencing profound multi-decade shifts in its relationship with the wider world.
The International Crisis Group posted on 29 June 2026 a 41-minute podcast titled "The Scramble for the Red Sea Is Not Cooling Down" by Alan Boswell with Federico Donelli, University of Trieste and author of a new book on the topic.
The scramble for control in the Red Sea region began during the Cold War and increased in intensity in the 21st century. There are now many new actors in the Red Sea. Middle powers have become as significant as major powers.
Russia has been seeking, so far without success, a military base in the region for years. China established a military base in Djibouti to protect its interests in the region and to extend global power. The Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, have become much more engaged in the Red Sea.
The US/Israeli war against Iran has underscored the importance of the Red Sea for international shipping. The European Union is the one grouping that should be more engaged in the region than it is.
The China-Africa Security Radar published on 31 May 2026 a commentary titled "The Limits of Beijing's Embrace" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.
African countries expecting China to come to their aid when experiencing security challenges should consider China's reaction to the seizure of President Maduro of Venezuela and the attack on Iran by the United States and Israel. Venezuela has a "strategic partnership" and Iran a "comprehensive strategic partnership" with China. What purpose did they serve?
Foreign Policy posted on 18 May 2026 an article titled "The Gulf's African Aftershocks" by Liam Karr.
The war against Iran is deepening preexisting regional proxy conflicts in the Horn of Africa and making mediation in Sudan of ongoing conflict more difficult. It has also resulted in a reduction of Gulf State investment in the region and beyond.
The American Security Project published on 7 May 2026 a commentary titled "What's Holding the Houthis Back in Bab al-Mandeb?" by Laura Bucci.
The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have so far refrained from attacking international shipping in the Red Sea following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. The author suggests this is due to ongoing reconstruction in Yemen following earlier attacks on the Houthis by the United States and Israel, an interrupted weapons supply chain from Iran, and concern that the U.S. and Israel would resume airstrikes. The author does not, however, rule out a resumption of Houthi attacks.
The International Crisis Group posted on 30 April 2026 a 35-minute podcast titled "Somalia's Election Standoff and New Inflection Point" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.
Issues discussed include Somalia's latest electoral crisis, tensions with federal member states, the future of the African Union mission in Somalia, the fight against al-Shabaab, and the growing role of external powers, especially Türkiye in Somali politics, and Israel in Somaliland.
Omar Mahmood offers an especially clear explanation of the current electoral situation in Somalia. Technically, 15 May is the end of the current government's term, but the situation is actually more complicated. The current government argues it has one more year in power; the opposition says it ends on 15 May. In any event, there will not be elections on 15 May.
The Global Affairs Forum of the Africa Governance Centre, an independent think tank based in Accra, Ghana, is hosting a panel discussion on 7 May dealing with the implications of the Iran conflict for global stability and African strategic interests. It begins at 9:00 am Eastern Time in the United States and Canada. You can register for the event at this link.
The panelists are:
--Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, High Representative for Silencing the Guns, African Union
--Amb. David Shinn, adjunct professor of international affairs, George Washington University
--Dr. Isaac Olawale Albert, professor of African history, peace and conflict studies, University of Ibadan
--Dr. Victor Kofi Afetoriom Doke, research fellow and lecturer, Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre
--Dr. Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah, postdoctoral fellow, Lingnan University, Hong Kong
