Can Ethiopia's Reforms Succeed?

Foreign Policy posted on 10 September 2018 an analysis titled "Can Ethiopia's Reforms Succeed? What Abiy's Plans Mean for the Country and the Region" by Michael Woldemariam, Boston University.

The author concludes that it is not yet clear whether Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will succeed, and progress so far has been mixed. But if he does, Ethiopia will have a chance not only to reinvent itself but also to bring a wave of reform and perhaps even democratization to the wider region.

Sub-Saharan Africa and Democratization Through 2022

The National Intelligence Council published in February 2018 an analysis titled "Sub-Saharan Africa: Pitched Contests for Democratization Through 2022."

The analysis concludes that standing in contrast to what academics have noted as a global drift toward authoritarianism, democracy remains a potent ideal in Africa. This tug of war between leaders and their constituents will become more intense through 2022, as stagnating economies, urbanization, and access to technology upset many longstanding balances of power. The resulting volatility will pose challenges and create opportunities for the international community as it pursues its strategic interests in this rapidly changing landscape.

China's Relations with Mozambique and Sudan Up To 2011

The December 2017 issue of Australasian Review of African Studies published an academic article titled "China's Baby Steps in Africa: A Historical Reckoning of Chinese Relations with Mozambique and Sudan until 2011" by David Robinson and Benjamin Hale, both at Edith Cowan University.

The article assesses Chinese policies in Mozambique and Sudan until 2011. It concludes there were positive and negative aspects of the relationships.

Kenya's Historic New Election

Foreign Policy published on 1 September 2017 an article titled "In Unprecedented Reversal, Kenya's Top Court Throws Out Election Result" by Ty McCormick.

Kenya's Supreme Court has invalidated due to vote counting irregularities Kenya's recent election that resulted in a victory for incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta, who has accepted the Court's decision. A new election is to take place within 60 days.

Is US Military Cooperation with Africa Working?

World Politics Review published on 23 September 2016 a commentary titled "U.S. Military Assistance to Africa is Growing. But Is It Succeeding?" by Nathaniel D.F. Allen, doctoral candidate at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies.

The author concludes that it is far from clear that AFRICOM is succeeding in meeting its longer-term objectives of deterring transnational threats and promoting regional security and stability.

Ethiopia and Angola: Democracy, China, US and EU

Democratization published in March 2015 an article titled "Not As Bad As It Seems: EU and US Democracy Promotion Faces China in Africa" by Christine Hackenesch, German Development Institute.

Using Ethiopia and Angola as case studies, the author argues that the important presence of China in both countries has not made it more difficult for the U.S. and European Union to implement their strategies for encouraging democratization.  Rather, domestic factors in Ethiopia and Angola, notably the level of challenge to regime survival both governments face, influence both governments' willingness to engage the European Union and U.S. 

China, Africa, and Democratization

Conflict Trends published in 2014 an article titled "Has the Rise of China in Africa Made Democratisation Less Likely?" by Akin Iwilade, Obafemi Awolowo University in Nigeria.  The article argues that Chinese impact on democratization in Africa is highly varied and context specific. 

Ethiopia, the United States and Opening Political Space

The Ethiopian English-language newspaper Capital published on 17 March 2014 a commentary titled "Testing the Waters Washington Presses Ethiopia for Political Reform," by Kirubel Tadesse.  The article focuses on the most recent State Department human rights report on Ethiopia and reaction to it by the Ethiopian government and others, myself included. 

President Obama's Trip to Africa

Agence France Presse asked me to respond by email to several questions concerning President Barack Obama's trip to Senegal, South Africa and Tanzania from 26 June until 3 July.

The article titled "Visite de Barack Obama: la Tanzanie Profite du Cas, Embarrassant, Kenyan" appeared on 23 June and focused on the Tanzanian portion of the trip.

President Obama Visit to Africa by dhshinn5947

Oxford Journals Articles on Kenya

Oxford Journals has made available online and free of charge the following recent articles in African Affairs about Kenya as part of its Kenya Virtual Issue:

• Introduction: Kenya Virtual Issue by Rita Abrahamsen and Nic Cheeseman
• Democratization, Sequencing, and State Failure in Africa: Lessons from Kenya by Daniel Branch and Nic Cheeseman
• Ethnicity, Violence, and the Immigrant-guest metaphor in Kenya by Sarah Jenkins
• Guns, Land, and Votes: Cattle Rustling and the Politics of Boundary (Re)Making in Northern Kenya by Clemens Greiner
• Rendering Differences Visible: The Kenyan State and Its Somali Citizens by Emma Lochery
• Becoming Indigenous in the Pursuit of Justice: The African Commission on Human and Peoples' Rights and the Endorois by Gabrielle Lynch
• Pwani C. Kenya? Memory, Documents and Secessionist Politics in Coastal Kenya bu Justin Willis and George Gona
• The Big Fish Won't Fry Themselves: Criminal Accountability for Post-Election Violence in Kenya by Stephen Brown and Chandra Lekha Sriram

Shinn Comments on Ethiopia's New PM

The Voice of America asked me to comment 17 September 2012 on the decision by the EPRDF to select Hailemariam Desalegn as the successor to Meles Zenawi. I indicated that this choice comes as no surprise and that it was a good decision.

Click here to read a summary of my remarks and to access the interview.

US Press Reaction to Death of Meles Zenawi

Following is a sampling of US press reaction on 21 August to the death of Meles Zenawi. While the print media has followed the development, neither the ABC nor the NBC evening news even mentioned the death of the prime minister. This demonstrates a shocking disinterest in African issues by at least two of America's major television channels.

Click here to read coverage by William Davison at Bloomberg.

Click here to read Alan Boswell's report at McClatchy Newspapers.

Click here to read Robyn Dixon's coverage in the Los Angeles Times.

Click here to read a Reuters article by Aaron Maasho in the Christian Science Monitor.

Click here to read Leon Goldberg's comments in UN Dispatch.

Ethiopia and the Kojo Nnamdi Show

The PBS Kojo Nnamdi Show in Washington devoted more than 30 minutes to Ethiopia on 13 August 2012. The two studio guests were Tamerat Negera, former editor of Addis Neger, and myself. Beyene Petros, leader of Medrek, and Mekonnen Kassa, former chair of the EPRDF Support Forum, called in from Washington and Seattle respectively.

Click here to listen to the program and/or register your opinion.

China-Africa Testimony

The U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, and Human Rights, held a hearing on 29 March 2012 on China-Africa relations. The witnesses included Donald Yamamoto, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs at the Department of State, Carolyn Bartholomew, Commissioner, US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Stephen Hayes, President and CEO of the Corporate Council on Africa, J. Peter Pham, Director of the Michael S. Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council and myself.

My testimony looked at US-China economic competition in Africa, the extraction of natural resources from Africa, land leasing in Africa, the promotion of democracy and human rights in Africa and possible US-China cooperation on UN peacekeeping, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan. You can read my testimony here.

Panel at Howard University on U.S. policy in the Horn of Africa

I participated in a panel hosted by the Oromo Studies Association at Howard University in Washington on April 4 and gave a subsequent interview to the Oromo language service of the Voice of America. The theme of the conference was "U.S. Policy in the Horn of Africa: Opportunities and Prospects for Change under the Obama Administration." Other members of the panel were Terrence Lyons, associate professor at George Mason University, and Ezekiel Gebissa, associate professor at Kettering University. I emphasized during the panel and in the VOA interview that it is important to treat the Horn of Africa as a region as conflicts in any one country inevitably have important implications for one or more neighboring countries. It is also essential that the United States work cooperatively with traditional allies and some of the new non-African countries that have growing influence in the region. I urged the mostly Ethiopian-American audience of Oromo heritage not to accept the commonly-held view that the United States wields enormous control over the Ethiopian government through its assistance program, which consists mostly of funding to combat HIV/AIDS and humanitarian assistance. U.S. influence is important but not uniquely critical to the Ethiopian government. Although the 2005 national elections in Ethiopia ended badly and the 2008 local elections were a missed opportunity to restart a competitive electoral process, I noted that the Eritrean-based Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) also missed an opportunity when it boycotted the 2005 elections. It is difficult to be optimistic about competitive national elections in 2010, but if discussions between the Ethiopian government and the OLF suggest the possibility of good elections on a relatively-level playing field, the OLF should engage politically. Its long-standing armed struggle against the government has not been successful and shows no sign that it will be successful. As for the Obama Administration and the concerns of the Oromo in Ethiopia, I doubted that the new administration will focus on any particular ethnic group in Ethiopia. Although the Oromo constitute by far the largest group in the country, there are some 85 ethnic groups in Ethiopia. It is not realistic to expect the American government to single out the grievances of any particular group. On the other hand, I believe the Obama administration will give greater attention generally to the process of democratization and human rights issues in Ethiopia. This should work to the advantage of the Oromo. UPDATE (4/8): The Yeroo Jimma Times has published this post on its website, as has Ethiopian Review and EthioBlog.

African expectations of Obama's policy

I interviewed with Oromo-language service of the Voice of America today by phone. In the interview, which will be translated into Oromo and run in English and Oromo on February 14, I discussed the Obama administration and African expectations of his policy. I made the following points among others: Africans may have expectations that are two high concerning the new administration. The new president must focus on the economic crisis facing the United States and even more pressing foreign policy issues in Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel-Palestine, Iran, North Korea, etc. It is unrealistic to expect the president to engage personally on most African issues during his first year in office. He will, of course, delegate this responsibility to others and eventually he will almost certainly engage on the continent. It is also important to remember that the Bush administration trebled the amount of financial resources going to Africa. In view of America's economic problems, it will be difficult to maintain this level, not to mention increase it. The Obama administration will probably give more support to those leaders who are serious about democratization, improving the human rights situation, reducing corruption, and improving governance. I believe there will also be increased attention to the environment whether it be combating global warming or reducing deforestation and soil erosion. When asked to compare Barack Obama and Martin Luther King, I suggested that they both had extraordinary oratorical skills. More important, they both had a vision on how to make the United States a better country. A majority of American voters from different racial and socio-economic backgrounds decided to try this new vision.