Increase in Somali Piracy in the Gulf of Aden

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 10 September 2026 an article titled "Somali Pirates Sustain Hijackings" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.

Somali pirates have hijacked at least 6 vessels off the coast of Somalia's Puntland State and off the coast of Yemen since April.  Suspected Somali pirates have attempted at least 4 additional hijackings since May.  

The war with Iran may be contributing to the increase in pirate attacks.  Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen may be collaborating with al-Shabaab in Somalia in support of the pirates.  One of the pirated vessels contained Turkish military equipment destined for the Somali National Army.  

UN Report on Foreign Fighers and Weapons Supporting Sudan War

 The UN Human Rights Council published on 1 September 2026 a report of the independent international fact-finding mission for Sudan titled "Fuelling Sudan's Conflict: Weapons, Fighters, and External Support Networks."

This is the most detailed UN report so far detailing external support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  It discusses Columbian mercenaries supporting the RSF, including the launching of drones, and the assistance of individuals and entities in the UAE.  It also identifies support received by the RSF from individuals or entities in Libya, Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Puntland in Somalia.  It identifies less external support for the SAF but notes the use of drones manufactured in Turkey.  

It concludes that external support is sustaining military operations and expanding the capabilities of both the RSF and SAF, with grave consequences for civilians.  Increasingly sophisticated drone capabilities enabled both sides to strike far beyond immediate front lines.  The report called for the Security Council to extend the arms embargo now imposed on Darfur throughout Sudan.   

Interview on the Horn of Africa

 Saxafi Media posted on 23 August 2026 an interview with me titled "Inside Washington's Somaliland Dilemma: David Shinn Reveals What U.S. Policy Really Means."

Although much of the interview deals with Somaliland, it covers issues throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond, including US support for Somalia sovereignty, Israel's recognition of Somaliland, importance of Ethiopia, the conflict in Sudan. Egypt's role in the region, security in the Red Sea, competition with China, the role of African diasporas, and the contribution of UN agencies and IGAD.

Somali Pirates Are Back in Business

 CNBC published on 20 August 2026 an article titled "Somali Pirate Menace Returns as U.S.-Iran War Stokes Regional Chaos and Saps Enforcement Resources" by Aparajita Saxena.

On August 17, pirates seized the cargo vessel Lutuf about four nautical miles off the Somali coast.  A month ago, they seized the MT Asana, a Tanzanian-flagged oil and chemical tanker, in the Gulf of Aden.  The upsurge in piracy may be driven by drought and food insecurity in Somalia and increased regional instability caused by the war with Iran.

AU Mission in Somalia Plans for Earlier Exit

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 13 August 2026 an article titled "Somalia--AUSSOM" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) has begun an accelerated handoff of responsibility to the Somali National Army.  AUSSOM's mission end date is December 2029, but the goal is to complete most of the handoff in 2028.  Al-Shabaab will likely exploit any lapse in counterterrorism efforts that might result from this decision.  

Analysis of Somalia's Governance Crisis

 The Emirates Policy Center published on 13 August 2026 an analysis titled "Trends and Shifts in the Somali Landscape: From Constitutional Dispute to a Crisis of Legitimacy."

Somalia is experiencing one of its most complex political crises since the adoption of the federal system in 2012.  These tensions coincide with growing friction between the federal government and federal member states, particularly Puntland.

The analysis concludes that the current governance crisis extends far beyond electoral arrangements or constitutional amendments.  Its roots reach into the very foundation of the fragile consensus upon which the federal state has been built in the last decade and a half.

Somali Diaspora in Africa and Giving Back to Somalia

 The August 2026 issue of Africa Spectrum includes an "Introduction to the Special Issue: Giving in Somali Diaspora Humanitarianism in Africa" by Nauja Kleist and Mark Bardbury.

The articles in this special issue of Africa Spectrum demonstrate that Somali diaspora humanitarian engagement is continuously evolving and comes in many forms.  It is influenced by gender, generation, educational background, and socio-economic circumstances.  

The issue is unique in that it focuses on the Somali diaspora in a number of African countries and not the diaspora in North America or Europe.  

US Steps Up Contact with Somali States and Somaliland

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 6 August 2026 an article titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Aaryaman Shah.  

The United States is pursuing an increased dual track engagement with local Somali governments in Puntland and Jubaland together with unilaterally independent Somaliland as it continues to recognize the sovereignty of the central Somali government in Mogadishu.  

Somali States Align Against Mogadishu

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 16 July 2026 an article titled "Puntland Standoff with the Federal Government of Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Aaryaman Shah.

Ties between the Somali government in Mogadishu and Puntland state continue to deteriorate as Mogadishu implements its constitutional and electoral agenda.  The national Somali Future Council (SFC) opposition coalition, which includes Puntland and Jubaland states and leading Somali opposition figures, has threatened to hold parallel elections and establish new government structures if Mogadishu continues to implement its agenda.  

US Counterterrorism Operations in Africa

 Eurasia Review published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "The Head of US Africa Command Testifies before Congress on American Counter-Terrorism Operations in Africa--Analysis" by Daniel Volman, director of the Africa Security Research Project in Washington.

This is a wide-ranging discussion of US efforts to counter terrorism in Africa.  It includes testimony in May before Congress by Dagvin Anderson, Commander of the U.S. Africa Command, and additional comments by other Trump administration officials.  The focus is on terrorist threats in Nigeria, the Sahel, and Somalia.  

Somali Piracy on the Rise

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 30 April 2026 an article titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo.  

Somali pirates have hijacked 3 vessels in Somali waters off Puntland since 21 April, the most in a 10-day period since 2012.  The problem could get worse if the pirates renew ties with the al-Shabaab terrorist organization in Somalia or Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Podcast on Situation in Somalia and Regional Dynamics

 The International Crisis Group posted on 30 April 2026 a 35-minute podcast titled "Somalia's Election Standoff and New Inflection Point" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.  

Issues discussed include Somalia's latest electoral crisis, tensions with federal member states, the future of the African Union mission in Somalia, the fight against al-Shabaab, and the growing role of external powers, especially Türkiye in Somali politics, and Israel in Somaliland.  

Omar Mahmood offers an especially clear explanation of the current electoral situation in Somalia.  Technically, 15 May is the end of the current government's term, but the situation is actually more complicated.  The current government argues it has one more year in power; the opposition says it ends on 15 May.  In any event, there will not be elections on 15 May.  

Saudi-UAE Power Struggle in the Horn of Africa

 The New Arab published on 9 February 2026 an article titled "The Growing Saudi-UAE Power Struggle in the Horn of Africa" by Jonathan Fenton-Harvey.

The author reviews the Horn of Africa from the standpoint of Saudi-UAE involvement in the numerous disputes in the region and increasing competition, especially in Sudan and Somalia/Somaliland.  

Somaliland Just Became More Complicated

AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 29 January 2026 an analysis titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.   

The federal government of Somalia in Mogadishu inaugurated North East state as a federal member state amid political disputes with Somaliland, which has claimed the territory since it declared independence from Somalia in 1991, and the autonomous neighboring state of Puntland, which has claims on parts of North East state.  North East state, which is home to a different clan than the rest of Somaliland, has been a location of periodic conflict for many years.  This situation significantly complicates the situation in Somalia, Somaliland, and Puntland.

Illegal Chinese Fishing Vessel Hijacked Off Somalia

 The Maritime Executive posted on 1 January 2026 an article titled "Report: Chinese Fishing Vessel Hijacked Off Somalia."

A Chinese fishing vessel, Liao Dong Yu 578, from an illegal fishing fleet was hijacked on New Year's Day off the coast of Puntland, Somalia.  Pirates captured the same vessel in 2024 and released it after payment of a ransom.  

Islamic State Pressured in Somalia

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 4 December 2025 an article titled "Somalia--Islamic State Somalia Province."

Puntland troops supported by US airstrikes have significantly degraded Islamic State jihadi forces in northern Puntland.  Nevertheless, the Islamic State remains active in the region. 

Navigating Federalism and Elections in Somalia

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in November 2025 a policy brief titled "Somalia's 2026 Mandate Test: Navigating Elections and Federal Tensions."

This policy brief examines the federal government's evolving role in Federal Member States' elections, the competing interpretations of constitutional authority, and the political and logistical obstacles to direct voting.  

Somalia Risks Becoming a Jihadist State

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 17 November 2025 an analysis titled "Somalia at Risk of Becoming a Jihadist State" by Matt Bryden, founder of Sahan, a policy and research center focused on the Horn of Africa.

The author has extensive experience in Somalia and Somaliland.  He says al-Shabaab now controls about 30 percent of Somalia's territory, far more than the federal government in Mogadishu, and poses a serious threat of taking the capital.  The federal government is heavily reliant on the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission for security.  

Somalia's economy is fractured and heavily dependent on three major ports of Kismayo, Mogadishu, and Bossaso while Berbera supports Somaliland.  The ports, in turn, empower different federal states that often defy central government authority.  The author concludes that Somalia faces a prospect that it may become an illiberal Islamist state.   

International Crisis Group Recommendations for US Policy on Somalia

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 24 October 2025 a commentary titled "Retooling the Trump Administration's Somalia Policy."

Somalia has posed a dilemma for US policy for decades.  The ICG urges the US to push Somalia's politicians to engage in good faith dialogue aimed at ending the chronic political infighting in the country.  It should use its influence to encourage a reconciliation between Somalia and Puntland and help establish a modus vivendi between Somalia and Somaliland.  Finally, it should urge Mogadishu to consider preparing steps toward a conversation with al-Shabaab about ending the war.

Somali Arms Flows Hinder Peace

 Ethiopia Insight published on 29 September 2025 a commentary titled "Weapons of Discord" by Adam Daud Ahmed, Horn of Africa security analyst.

Somalia's federal system of government has resulted in the indiscriminate flow of arms to clan militias, which has exacerbated conflict in the country.  The author suggests the United Nations needs to introduce conditional arms controls.