Somaliland Just Became More Complicated

AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 29 January 2026 an analysis titled "Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr.   

The federal government of Somalia in Mogadishu inaugurated North East state as a federal member state amid political disputes with Somaliland, which has claimed the territory since it declared independence from Somalia in 1991, and the autonomous neighboring state of Puntland, which has claims on parts of North East state.  North East state, which is home to a different clan than the rest of Somaliland, has been a location of periodic conflict for many years.  This situation significantly complicates the situation in Somalia, Somaliland, and Puntland.

Somaliland Election Complicates Relations with China and Taiwan

 The Pan African Review published on 21 November 2024 a commentary titled "What Somaliland's 2024 Elections Mean for the China-Taiwan Rivalry in the Horn" by Peter Kagwanja, Africa Policy Institute and former advisor to the government of Kenya.  

Somaliland's drive for international recognition and its MOU with Ethiopia that traded Ethiopian diplomatic recognition for a military facility in Somaliland, contributed to the recent electoral defeat of President Muse Bihi Abdi and the Kulmiye party and the victory of opposition candidate Abdirahmin Mohamed Abdullahi and his Waddani party.  President Abdi's close ties with Taiwan and Taipei's financial support for his reelection campaign added to the electoral backlash.

China has criticized the Somaliland-Taiwan relationship from the beginning and emphasized acceptance of the one China principle.  In turn, it adopted a one Somalia policy and accused Taiwan of undermining Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.  The election of President Abdullahi in Somaliland tilts the balance of power in the Horn of Africa in favor of China.  An added complication to this development is the predilection of the incoming Trump administration to favor diplomatic recognition of Somaliland.