Somaliland Election Complicates Relations with China and Taiwan

 The Pan African Review published on 21 November 2024 a commentary titled "What Somaliland's 2024 Elections Mean for the China-Taiwan Rivalry in the Horn" by Peter Kagwanja, Africa Policy Institute and former advisor to the government of Kenya.  

Somaliland's drive for international recognition and its MOU with Ethiopia that traded Ethiopian diplomatic recognition for a military facility in Somaliland, contributed to the recent electoral defeat of President Muse Bihi Abdi and the Kulmiye party and the victory of opposition candidate Abdirahmin Mohamed Abdullahi and his Waddani party.  President Abdi's close ties with Taiwan and Taipei's financial support for his reelection campaign added to the electoral backlash.

China has criticized the Somaliland-Taiwan relationship from the beginning and emphasized acceptance of the one China principle.  In turn, it adopted a one Somalia policy and accused Taiwan of undermining Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.  The election of President Abdullahi in Somaliland tilts the balance of power in the Horn of Africa in favor of China.  An added complication to this development is the predilection of the incoming Trump administration to favor diplomatic recognition of Somaliland.  

The Future of China-Africa Relations

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 21 November 2024 an analysis titled "What FOCAC 2024 Reveals About the Future of China-Africa Relations" by Christian-Geraud Neema.

China called for modernization in Africa or the right to industrialize according to one's own background without being forced to follow Western norms.  China is promoting a variety of governance models and approaches to development and modernization that undercut the Western-led international order, norms, and values.  

China is positioning itself as Africa's development partner and international ally.  But there is no guarantee China's approach will be fairer or more advantageous for Africa.  So far, the United States has not responded with a clear counter strategy.

Taiwan's President to Visit Eswatini

 Focus Taiwan published on 25 August 2023 an article titled "President Tsai to Visit Eswatini in Early September."

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen will visit from 5-8 September Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taipei.  The occasion marks the 55th anniversary of Eswatini's independence.  

China Is Waiting for Oppotunity in Eswatini

 The Diplomat published on 10 August 2021 a commentary titled "Eswatini, Taiwan's Last Partner in Africa" by Carien du Plessis.

Eswatini is the only country in Africa that still recognizes Taiwan.  Political unrest in the country seems to have stirred China's interest in encouraging it to switch recognition to Beijing.

Somaliland-Taiwan Ties Pose New Challenge for China

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 28 August 2020 an analysis titled "China-Taiwan Competition over Somaliland and Implications for Small Countries" by Thomas J. Shattuck.  

Somaliland and Taiwan exchanged "representative offices" earlier this year.  Taiwan has informal arrangements with a number of countries that fall short of diplomatic relations.  Its office in Somaliland is the only case, however, where it uses "Taiwan" in the official name instead of "Taipei."  While seemingly a minor issue, it is especially annoying to China.  

Beijing's attempt to prevent this development failed.  The author concludes that Somaliland may be a special case because Taiwan can offer mutual respect for Somaliland, which is not recognized by any other country, and Beijing, which has formal diplomatic relations with Somalia, cannot.  

China Squeezes Only Country in Africa that Recognizes Taiwan

The Daily Maverick published on 3 February 2020 an article titled "China Turns the Screws on Eswatini" by Carien Du Plessis. The author reports that China is threatening to "cripple" Eswatini business and economic development if it does not switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.

The Swaziland News published on 4 February 2020 the text of China's press release that sets forth Beijing's new policy towards Eswatini. Swazi passport holders who wish to visit China can now only obtain a visa from the Chinese embassy in Pretoria.

Focus Taiwan reported on 3 February 2020 Taiwan's response from the foreign ministry in a statement titled "Eswatini's Ties with Taiwan Firm Despite Pressure from China: MOFA." Taiwan expressed appreciation to Eswatini for standing up to China.

Burkina Faso and Swaziland: Taiwan's Last Two Partners in Africa

Bloomberg published on 24 January 2017 an article titled "Chinese Billions Fail to Sway Taiwan's Last Two Allies in Africa" by Pauline Bax, Simon Gongo, and Lungile Dlamini.

The article concludes that neither Swaziland nor Burkina Faso are looking to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China as Gambia and Sao Tome and Principe have done in the past year.

What Game is Gambia Playing with Taiwan and China?

Until 15 November 2013, Gambia was one of only four countries in Africa that recognized Taiwan.  On that date, President Yahya Jammeh announced that Gambia had cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan for reasons of "national strategic interest."  Gambia hoped to remain friends with the Taiwanese people, he said.  A day after making the announcement, Jammeh posted on Facebook that the People's Republic of China is the only China Gambia recognized diplomatically as the country goes forward.  There has been no indication that Beijing has recognized Gambia.

A report in the 19 November 2013 Taipei Times titled "Taiwan Declares Ties with the Gambia 'Terminated'," states that last January President Yahya Jammeh requested $10 million in cash, which is contrary to Taiwan's foreign aid policy.  Taiwan's Minister of Foreign Affairs, David Lin, said there is no indication that Beijing had anything to do with this unexpected decision by President Jammeh.  He added that should China and Gambia establish relations, "it would be a very serious warning to us."  Taiwan and China have had an informal diplomatic truce on the issue of diplomatic representation since the election of Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou.