Russia's Growing Influence in Africa

 The International Crisis Group posted on 2 October 2025 a 7-minute video titled "Russia's Growing Influence in Africa."

This is a brief survey of African countries where the Wagner Group was engaged, and its activities increasingly are being taken over by the Africa Corps. The video ties Russia's interests to the extraction of natural resources such as gold and strategic access in eastern Libya. 

US May Require Bonds from Visitors of 15 African Countries

Reuters published on 23 November 2020 an article titled "New Trump Rule May Require Some African Tourists to Pay Up to $15,000 in Bonds" by Ted Hesson. 

The outgoing Trump administration issued a new temporary rule that could require tourist and business travelers from 24 countries, including 15 in Africa, to pay a bond of as much as $15,000 to visit the United States.   

The Department of State published on 24 November 2020 the "Visa Bond Pilot Program."  Countries whose nationals have overstay rates of 10 percent or higher are included in the pilot program.  The 15 African countries are: Angola, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Chad, DRC, Djibouti, Eritrea, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Libya, Mauritania, Sao Tome and Principe, and Sudan.  

Comment:  This is one more landmine left by the departing Trump administration.  The problem of visa overstays by tourists and business visitors dates back many decades and does tend to be higher for nationals of certain countries.  The problem with this solution is that it seems to be predicated on two premises:  payment of a bond before travelling to the US will discourage overstaying and foreign countries need to do more to prevent the practice.

Payment of a bond will prevent most low income visitors intending to remain in the United States from travelling to our shores.  They will find it difficult to pay the bond.  It will have little or no impact on the wealthy visitors who can afford to forego up to $15,000.  The idea that foreign countries can prevent this practice by their nationals is ludicrous.  This is a personal decision made by each person who obtains an American visa.  What can a foreign government do about that?  Finally, what is magical about the 10 percent overstay number?  If a country has a 9 percent overstay rate, there apparently is no problem. 

Welcome to America! 

Study on Resource-Backed Loans in Africa and Latin America

The Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) published in February 2020 an important study titled "Resource-Backed Loans: Pitfalls and Potential" by David Mihalyi, Aisha Adam, and Jyhjong Hwang. NRGI is based in New York and has offices in a number of countries, including Ghana and Tanzania. It is committed to assisting countries to get a good deal for their natural resources and ensure that the resulting revenues are managed for the benefit of their citizens.

The study looked at 52 resource-backed loans (RBLs) in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Thirty of the loans were in Sub-Saharan Africa and 22 in Latin America. Chinese policy banks and state-owned enterprises accounted for 42 of the 52 loans. Most were backed by oil. Eleven countries in Sub-Saharan Africa had RBLs: Angola, Chad, DRC, Ghana, Guinea, Niger, Republic of Congo, Sao Tome and Principe, South Sudan, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. Three countries in Latin America received RBLs. Angola was the largest RBL borrower in Sub-Saharan Africa and Venezuela the largest borrower in Latin America. Two-thirds of the RBLs went to countries with a poor or failing score on NRGI's Resource Governance Index.

The study concludes that RBLs are opaque and pose a major finance risk. Of the 14 RBL recipient countries, 10 experienced serious debt problems after the commodity price crash of 2014, with RBLs often an important contributor. There is now an important momentum to change how RBLs are undertaken by learning from past mistakes and finding more sustainable ways forward. This report provides guidelines for more responsible use of RBLs going forward.

The South China Morning Post published on 8 March 2020 a good journalistic account of the report titled "How Chinese Loans Can Become 'Perilous Pitfalls for Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.

40 African States Sign Belt and Road MOUs with China

Quartz Africa published on 30 September 2019 an article titled "These Are the African Countries Not Signed To China's Belt and Road Project" by Abdi Latif Dahir.

Forty African countries have signed a Belt and Road Initiative MOU with China. The following fourteen countries have for various reasons not signed an MOU: Eritrea, Mauritius, DRC, CAR, Benin, Equatorial Guinea, eSwatini, Botswana, Sao Tome and Principe, Burkina Faso, Comoros, Lesotho, Guinea Bissau, and Malawi.

China's Military Interests in Africa

The National Interest published on 25 November 2018 an article titled "China Militarizes Its Influence in Africa" by Richard D. Fisher Jr., International Assessment and Strategy Center, an Alexandria, Virginia-based think tank.

The article speculates on the future of the China Africa Defense and Security Forum (CADSF), which met for the first time last summer in China with high-level military delegations from 49 African countries and the African Union. The author said the goals of CADSF are to increase China-Africa military cooperation, promote China's arms sales to Africa, and gain additional Chinese military access and bases in Africa.

China Ramps Up Military and Soft Power Links with Africa

The Diplomatic Courier posted on 9 July 2018 a commentary titled "China's Presence in Africa Comes with a New Edge" by Uju Okoye.

The author argues that China is expanding its engagement in Africa to bolster military relations and pursue subtler, soft-power strategies as the United States retreats from the continent.

African Countries at Risk of Debt Distress

There has been much public discussion of debt distress in Africa recently with the finger often pointed at China. For the record, the International Monetary Fund, identified as of 1 January 2018 the following African countries as currently in debt distress but did not assign any blame for the distress: Chad, South Sudan, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. The IMF identified the following countries as being at high risk of debt distress: Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Djibouti, Gambia, Ghana, Mauritania, Sao Tome and Principe, and Zambia.

China-Taiwan "Diplomatic Truce" Over

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission published on 9 February 2017 an issue brief titled "As Chinese Pressure on Taiwan Grows, Beijing Turns Away from Cross-Strait 'Diplomatic Truce'" by Matthew Southerland.

The analysis notes recent decisions by Gambia and Sao Tome and Principe to switch diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, possible Chinese overtures to Burkina Faso to do the same, Nigeria's decision that required Taiwan to move its liaison office from the capital of Abuja to the commercial center of Lagos, and other evidence that suggests Beijing is stepping up pressure on Taiwan. The conclusion is that the "diplomatic truce" since 2008 between China and Taiwan not to encourage switches in diplomatic recognition is over. Only two African countries now recognize Taiwan and only 21 globally.

Burkina Faso and Swaziland: Taiwan's Last Two Partners in Africa

Bloomberg published on 24 January 2017 an article titled "Chinese Billions Fail to Sway Taiwan's Last Two Allies in Africa" by Pauline Bax, Simon Gongo, and Lungile Dlamini.

The article concludes that neither Swaziland nor Burkina Faso are looking to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China as Gambia and Sao Tome and Principe have done in the past year.

Sao Tome Switches Recognition from Taiwan to China

The New York Times published on 22 December 2016 an article titled "A Small African Nation Severs Ties with Taiwan, and Beijing Applauds" by Mike Ives.

Taiwan's Foreign Ministry announced on 21 December 2016 that the West African island nation of Sao Tome and Principe had broken relations while China welcomed the switch to Beijing. This reduces the number of countries having formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan to 21. This number includes only 2 in Africa: Swaziland and Burkina Faso. Gambia broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 2013 and was recognized by China in March 2016. The diplomatic truce between Taiwan and China is over and Beijing will almost certainly pursue vigorously formal relations with the other 21 countries.

China Re-establishes Diplomatic Ties with Gambia

Bloomberg Business published on 18 March 2016 an article titled "China's Gambia Move Reminds Tsai of Power to Isolate Taiwan."

China formally re-established relations with Gambia on 17 March, more than two years after the West African nation severed ties with Taiwan.  Throughout the eight-year presidency of Ma Ying-jeou in Taiwan, China and Taiwan had an informal agreement not to steal diplomatic recognition from the other party.  This policy held until after the election this year in Taiwan of opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen. 

After Gambia broke relations with Taiwan in November 2013, only 22 small states, including the Holy See, maintained diplomatic relations with Taipei.  Today, only three countries in Africa have relations with Taiwan: Sao Tome and Principe, Burkina Faso, and Swaziland.  China's recognition of Gambia may portend a stepped up effort by China to obtain the recognition of these African countries and others that still recognize Taiwan. 

China's Sinohydro has already agreed to replace Gambia's aging electricity supply system, although the terms of the project are not clear.

On 18 March 2016 Taiwan strongly protested the resumption of Gambia-China diplomatic ties.

China Expands Presence in Sao Tome and Principe

Eurasia Review published on 24 November 2015 a major analysis titled "Sao Tome E Principe: A Key Piece in Beijing's Chessboard? - Analysis" by Gustavo Placido Dos Santos, a researcher at the Portuguese Institute of International Relations and Security.

Sao Tome and Principe, which is one of three African countries that has diplomatic relations with Taiwan, signed an agreement in October 2015 with China's state-owned China Harbor Engineering Company to build a $800 million deep-water port.  This project coincides with China's growing interest in oil discoveries in the Gulf of Guinea.