Russia's Growing Influence in Africa

 South Africa's Institute for Security Studies published on 26 June 2024 an analysis titled "Russia's Growing Influence in Africa Calls for More Balanced Partnerships" by Denys Reva.

Russia's efforts to expand its influence in Africa have fallen short for 3 reasons.  First, its trade volume with Africa and especially its imports from Africa remain minimal.  Second, Ukraine's success in ending Russia's naval blockade in the Black Sea eased export restrictions on grain in 2023.  Third, the 2023 Russia-Africa Summit resulted in most African states opting for non-alignment.  Russia's greatest success in Africa comes from its bilateral security agreements, including training and arms transfers.

Heavily Indebted Poor Countries with Loans from China

 Visual Capitalist published on 11 December 2023 a graphic titled "Developing Countries Receiving the Most Loans from China" by Marcus Lu, Bruno Venditti, and Bhabna Banerjee.

Fourteen of the fifteen Most Highly Indebted Countries (HIPC) with the largest amount of loans from China are in Africa. In order of most loans from China, the countries are Ghana, Guinea, Ethiopia, Tanzania, DRC, Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Sudan, Zambia, Bolivia, Chad, Senegal, Niger, Mali, and Cameroon.

Comment:  This list of countries is receiving pushback in some quarters, citing the fact that Angola, which has more Chinese loans than any other African country, is absent from the list and the loan figure for Ghana appears to be excessively high.  While the amount of money China has loaned to Ghana does look to be much too high, Angola is excluded because it is NOT a highly indebted poor country.  It is oil rich and, so far, has been able to repay its loans.  

Waning Interest in China's Belt and Road Initiative

 The Council on Foreign Relations blog posted on 17 October 2023 a commentary titled "China's Belt and Road Initiative Enters Its Second Decade: Which Leaders Went to Beijing to Celebrate with Xi Jinping?" by David Sacks.

China has pledged to continue to promote the Belt and Road Initiative as its overarching plan for international cooperation.  But judging by high level attendance at the 3rd Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, it is facing declining interest.  In 2017, the leaders of 29 countries attended the first Belt and Road Forum.  In 2019, the number of foreign leaders increased to 37 at the second Belt and Road Forum.

At the current third Forum, only 23 heads of state and government showed up.  Five African leaders made the trip to Beijing: Republic of Congo President Denis Sassou Nguesso, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Kenyan President William Ruto, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, and Mozambican Prime Minister Adriano Maleiane.  

President Xi Jinping still views the Belt and Road Initiative as an important tool for advancing Chinese power and influence but it is becoming a more slimmed-down and cost effective program composed of less risky projects.  

Impact on China of Zambian Debt Deal

 The Rhodium Group published on 29 June 2023 an analysis titled "China's External Debt Renegotiations after Zambia" by Matthew Mingey and Logan Wright. 

China appears to be changing its approach in providing debt relief to emerging markets following the recent deal on restructuring bilateral loans to Zambia.  However, the Zambia deal reveals that China's Export Import Bank may still not be speaking for all of China's lenders.  Beijing's banks remain insistent on extending loan terms and adjusting financing costs rather than accepting haircuts on principal.  Beijing's tactics may change further as financial stress in emerging markets builds.   

African Social Media Mostly Indifferent or Negative Towards Russia

The South African Institute of International Affairs published on 11 November 2022 a survey titled "African Social Media Indicates Indifference Towards Russia." 

The Institute analyzed social media data from Twitter in thirteen African countries from February to October 2022.  Although were was some positive reaction to Russia in South Africa and Mali, the populations in the other eleven countries were generally indifferent or negative towards Russia.  The Russia-Ukraine war was a key driver of anti-Russia attitudes.  

Study on Resource-Backed Loans in Africa and Latin America

The Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) published in February 2020 an important study titled "Resource-Backed Loans: Pitfalls and Potential" by David Mihalyi, Aisha Adam, and Jyhjong Hwang. NRGI is based in New York and has offices in a number of countries, including Ghana and Tanzania. It is committed to assisting countries to get a good deal for their natural resources and ensure that the resulting revenues are managed for the benefit of their citizens.

The study looked at 52 resource-backed loans (RBLs) in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Thirty of the loans were in Sub-Saharan Africa and 22 in Latin America. Chinese policy banks and state-owned enterprises accounted for 42 of the 52 loans. Most were backed by oil. Eleven countries in Sub-Saharan Africa had RBLs: Angola, Chad, DRC, Ghana, Guinea, Niger, Republic of Congo, Sao Tome and Principe, South Sudan, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. Three countries in Latin America received RBLs. Angola was the largest RBL borrower in Sub-Saharan Africa and Venezuela the largest borrower in Latin America. Two-thirds of the RBLs went to countries with a poor or failing score on NRGI's Resource Governance Index.

The study concludes that RBLs are opaque and pose a major finance risk. Of the 14 RBL recipient countries, 10 experienced serious debt problems after the commodity price crash of 2014, with RBLs often an important contributor. There is now an important momentum to change how RBLs are undertaken by learning from past mistakes and finding more sustainable ways forward. This report provides guidelines for more responsible use of RBLs going forward.

The South China Morning Post published on 8 March 2020 a good journalistic account of the report titled "How Chinese Loans Can Become 'Perilous Pitfalls for Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.

A Greater Maritime Role for China in the Gulf of Guinea?

The China Brief published on 9 January 2015 an analysis titled "Maritime Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea: A Greater Role for China?" by Hang Zhou and Katharina Seibel. 

In 2012, attacks on ships off the Gulf of Guinea for the first time exceeded the number of attacks by Somali pirates in the Gulf of Aden.  A couple of Chinese vessels and additional Chinese nationals on vessels from other countries have been subject to attack.  Except for the sale of coastal patrol boats to countries in and near the Gulf of Guinea, China has not been especially active compared to the US and European Union in trying to stem the problem.  The authors wonder if the time has come for China to become more engaged in countering piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.