Senator Cruz Meets with African Ambassadors: Focus on China

 The office of Senator Ted Cruz (Republican, Texas), Chairman of the Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health Policy, posted on 20 February 2025 a brief account of his meeting with African ambassadors.  

Countries represented at the meeting were Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Malawi, Ghana, Senegal, Djibouti, Madagascar, Zambia, Equatorial Guinea, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Gabon, Togo, Mozambique, Mauritania, and Ethiopia as well as the Representative from the African Union.  

Following the meeting, Cruz said he intends to use the chairmanship "to ensure that America's policy toward Africa is focused on advancing American security interests across the continent, with an emphasis on countering China's efforts to undermine those interests and conduct malign activities."  He stated that China's Belt and Road Initiative serves as a tool for the Communist Party of China "to lock in crushing debt and undermine the sovereignty of countries across the continent."  He added that the United States has a unique opportunity to expand economic ties with African countries.

Comment: Expanding economic ties with Africa will be a real challenge as the Trump administration dismantles the US Agency for International Development, one of its most important foreign policy tools for engaging with African countries. 

The Nuanced Reality of China-Africa Relations

 American Diplomacy published in November 2024 a commentary titled "China in Africa: The Nuanced Reality of Belt and Road" by Hank Cohen, former US assistant secretary of state for African affairs.  

The author points out that China has shifted from doing infrastructure projects based on loans to working on a grant basis.  China is now providing much needed infrastructure for African countries without the harm of tying them up in debt.  He concludes that the reality of China's Africa policy contains more shades of grey than popularly understood.  The positives for Africans are real, but so are the potential pitfalls.

China Expands Engagement in Morocco

 Al-Monitor published on 20 October 2024 an article titled "What's Behind China's Deepening Engagement with Morocco?" by Sabena Siddiqui.

Chinese companies are winning contracts to expand Morocco's high speed rail system and signed a $6.4 billion memorandum of understanding to construct an EV battery "gigafactory" near Rabat.  There is growing Chinese investment in Morocco's ICT sector.  In 2022, China became Morocco's third largest trading partner.

Recapping the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation

 Reuters published on 7 September 2024 an article titled "China Stops Short of Africa Debt Relief as It Pledges More Cash" by Duncan Miriri and Laurie Chen.

China pledged $51 billion in new assistance, without providing details, over three years at the just concluded Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.  It did not, however, announce any major debt relief for those countries that now find themselves in debt trouble.  

Is China Moving from Loans to Public Private Partnerships in Africa? (in Mandarin)

 Radio Free Asia published on 5 September 2024 an article in Mandarin on China's alleged move from loans to public private partnerships to finance infrastructure projects in Africa.  It draws on such speculation from an article in Bloomberg but also finds skeptics concerning a switch to public private partnerships.  

China Seeks Different Ways to Finance African Projects

 Bloomberg published on 3 September 2024 an article titled "Xi Wants Bigger Returns, Fewer Headaches from African Debt Deals" by Neil Munshi and Peter Martin.

As African leaders arrive in Beijing for the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the authors emphasize that China is seeking different ways of financing large projects in Africa that don't add to the debt woes facing a number of African countries.  Not only will there be a decrease in the number of mega loans that China provided several years ago, but it is looking to offer more public-private partnerships.

Podcast on China's FDI and Loans to Africa

 Deutsche Welle posted on 30 August 2024 a 13-minute podcast titled "Can China Regain Its Foothold in Africa?" with me and narrated by Clifford Coonan.

As the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation approaches in early September, Deutsche Welle asked for my comments on China's Belt and Road program in Africa and especially the current status of Chinese foreign direct investment and loans to the continent.   

Chinese Loans to Africa Increase Modestly in 2023

 Boston University's Global Development Policy Center posted on 21 August 2024 an analysis titled "Relative Risk and the Rate of Return: Chinese Loans to Africa Database, 2000-2023."

China's total loans to Africa peaked in 2016 at $28 billion, fell to $1 billion annually in 2021 and 2022 before rising to almost $5 billion in 2023.  China's top five loan recipients between 2000 and 2023 were Angola, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya.  In 2023, China changed its approach to loans by providing half the total to African multilateral banks and nationally owned banks in Egypt.  It continued to prioritize its longtime borrowers: Angola, Egypt, and Nigeria.   

Narratives in China-Africa Relations

 The Africa Policy Research Institute, an independent think tank based in Berlin, published on 12 June 2024 a policy brief titled "Exploring the Role of Narratives in China-Africa Relations." 

The report questions the importance of tracking and interrogating the role of development narratives in the context of global power shifts by focusing on China-Africa relations.  It contains the following narratives:  

--Going beyond binary narratives of China-Africa relations by Lina Benabdallah.

--Debt traps and other stories: The Western counter-narration of Africa-China relations by Cobus van Staden.

--Borrowing for belts and roads: The double edge of China's infrastructure lending in Africa by Yunnan Chen.

--What the Indo-Pacific narrative tells us about China and Africa by Yu-Shan Wu.  

The Hidden World of Chinese Manufacturing in Ethiopia

 The China Global South Project posted on 31 May 2024 a 40-minute audio discussion (and written transcript) with Xinyan Yu and Max Duncan, co-directors/producers of their recent documentary film titled "Made in Ethiopia."  Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden ask the questions.

The discussion and the documentary film focus on relationships between Ethiopian workers and Chinese managers at a Chinese industrial park outside Addis Ababa.  Some 100 Chinese companies have manufacturing facilities in the industrial park.  Filming took place over four years and was interrupted by both COVID-19 and the war between federal government forces and Tigray Defense Forces.

For more information on the film, visit the website.  It will be shown at the Tribeca Festival in New York on 6, 9, and 14 June, at the Sheffield Festival in the UK on 13 and 15 June, at DC/DOX in Washington on 16 June, at Encounters in Johannesburg, South Africa on 22 June, and at Encounters in Cape Town, South Africa on 29 June.

China Investing Heavily in African Minerals

 Reuters published on 28 May 2024 an article titled "Post-COVID China Is Back in Africa and Doubling Down on Minerals" by Rachel Savage and Duncan Miriri.

China-Africa trade continues to grow but mostly on the basis of more Chinese exports to Africa.  Chinese loans to Africa dropped sharply after COVID-19 and have not yet demonstrated significant signs of revival.  Chinese investments, mainly in mineral projects, have, however, increased impressively.  

China Provides Loans for Cameroon's Port Expansion

 The South China Morning Post published on 26 May 2024 an article concerning Chinese loans continue to support Cameroon's seaport initiative by Jevans Nyabiage..

The China Export-Import Bank provided about $1.48 million in loans to build the first and second phases of Cameroon's Kribi port on the Atlantic as well as a highway leading to it.  China Export-Import Bank is providing two loans to expand the port--$524.5 million preferential export buyer's credit and $150 million concessional loan.  

China-Africa Digital Economy Cooperation

 The China-Africa Economic & Trade Research Institute and Datasparkle jointly published and released on 10 May 2024 a detailed document titled "Africa Digital Development Index and China-Africa Digital Economy Cooperation Report."

The report provides an analysis of Africa's digital economy and explores possibilities for collaboration between China and Africa.  It compiles data collected from African countries from 2014 to 2023, providing a comprehensive evaluation framework for Africa's digital economy across time, space, and domains.  The report highlights significant regional disparities and systemic imbalances in Africa. It cites Kenya-China cooperation as a model for future digital collaboration.  

China, Russia, Africa, and Peacebuilding

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published on 18 April 2024 an analysis titled "China, Russia and the Future of Peacebuilding" by Jiayi Zhou, Jair van der Lijn, and Jingdong Yuan.

China's approach to peacebuilding emphasizes sovereignty and regime security and tends to downplay the protection of civilians in armed conflict.  China stresses that poverty and underdevelopment are root causes of conflict and insecurity; economic development is hence considered a key element in fostering peace.

Russia's approach shares China's emphasis on state sovereignty and host state consent, although several Russian military operations such as Ukraine have violated those precepts.  Russia's position is in several respects starkly different to China's.  It argues that economic difficulties do not automatically lead to insecurity and that stabilizing the security situation leads to improved developmental and societal outcomes in a given country--not the other way around.

The authors conclude that China has no distinctive, clearly defined approach to peacebuilding.  Likewise, gaps and inconsistencies between rhetoric and action suggest that Russia engages in fragile settings opportunistically rather than offering a principled approach or paradigm to fostering peace.

Comment:  The differences in approach to peacebuilding by China and Russia suggest this is not an area where they are likely to cooperate in Africa.  Based on past Chinese experience, it is almost inconceivable that China would agree to collaborate with a Russian Wagner Group or Africa Corps contingent.    

US/EU Lobito Corridor Project Could Counter China's Efforts

 The Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis posted on 2 April 2024 a commentary titled "Confronting the China Challenge in Africa: The Lobito Corridor" by Eduardo Castellet Nogues.

The US Development Finance Corporation and the Export-Import Bank, together with European partners, are funding a huge infrastructure project in the Lobito Corridor that runs from Zambia's copper fields, through the mineral rich Democratic Republic of the Congo, to the Angolan port of Lobito.  China has been the principal infrastructure partner in this part of Africa throughout this century.  If the project is successful, it could counter China's Belt and Road Initiative in this part of Africa.   

Chinese Maritime Interests in the Indian Ocean

 Sea Control posted on 24 March 2024 a 27-minute podcast titled "Chinese Maritime Interests in the Indian Ocean with Commodore Venugopal Vengalil" hosted by Nathan Miller.  

This conversation with retired Indian Commodore Vengalil, a member of the Chennai Centre for China Studies, took place on 5 February.  He reviews the history during the 21st century of the PLA Navy's shift from an exclusive near sea focus to a significant interest in the far seas and the need to protect China's interests throughout the Belt and Road Initiative region.

Commodore Vengalil discusses the challenges, especially the long line of communications, for the PLAN in the Indian Ocean to exercise sea control with questionable ability to access ports during hostilities.  He analyzes the capability of the Chinese fleet, which is large but with significant handicaps that limit its ability to project power.  

His remarks are based on a paper published by the Chennai Centre for China Studies on 2 December 2023 and titled "Assessment of Chinese Maritime Interests in Indian Ocean Region."

China and India Compete in Indian Ocean

 The Diplomat published on 14 March 2024 a commentary titled "China and India's Intense Contest for Influence" by Jabin T. Jacob, Shiv Nadar University.

India has been closely watching Chinese actions in the Indian Ocean in island countries such as Maldives and Mauritius and has responded strongly in cases where its security was directly affected.  

The Plusses and Minuses of the Chinese-built Railway in Kenya

 Public Seminar posted on 18 March 2024 a commentary titled "The New Silk Road: China's Belt and Road Initiative Provokes Divided Narratives in Kenya" by Keren Zhu, The New School.

The Chinese-funded and built standard gauge railway in Kenya has provoked a heated debate between proponents of the project's economic benefits and those concerned with its socio-environmental risks.  The author concludes that while the railway was a success for many stakeholders, its long-term effect on Kenya is highly uncertain.

Comment:  The article indicates that the railway is an example of China's investment abroad.  In fact, it is an example of Kenya's investment in itself because Nairobi must pay the Chinese companies for building the project.  

China Seeks To Secure Dual Use Ports and Supply Lines in Africa

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies published on 14 March 2024 an analysis titled "China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Sanction-Proof Supply Lines and Dual-Use Ports" by Benedict Hamlyn.

Beijing's strategy in Africa is to court foreign policy influence in order to sanction-proof supply chains and develop dual-use ports for both commercial and military purposes.  The author concludes that as the US-China relationship moves into stormier waters, China will continue to expand its naval reach and supply chain resilience, particularly as its declining economic surplus will see it concentrate financing on geostrategically important locations off the Atlantic coast and in the Indian Ocean.

China-Africa Economic Engagement

 The International Monetary Fund published in February 2024 a working paper titled "Navigating the Evolving Landscape of China and Africa's Economic Engagements" by Wenjie Chen, Michele Fornino, and Henry Rawlings.  

The paper examines the evolution of trade, loans, and investment since the early 2000s, and the subsequent shift in the relationship triggered by the commodity price collapse in 2015 and by the COVID-19 pandemic.  The potential effects on the African continent of a further slowdown in Chinese growth are analyzed, highlighting the varying effects on different countries in Africa.

China-Africa trade continues to increase, although China's exports to Africa are growing much more rapidly than Africa's exports to China.  Chinese loans to Africa were once highly important but have declined sharply since reaching a peak in 2016.  China's foreign direct investment in Africa remains modest, reaching only about 4 percent of total investment stock on the continent.