Russia-South Africa Relations: It's Complicated

 The South African Institute of International Affairs recently posted a 16-minute podcast titled "South Africa and Russia: It's Complicated."

The Russia-China relationship generates uncomfortable headlines today.  It is based on the strong anti-apartheid position of the Soviet Union.  In addition, Vladimir Putin and former South African President Jacob Zuma solidified the ties.

Russia's invasion of Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine complicated the relationship.  South Africa fell back on a policy of non-alignment.  By 2022, there was confusion in Pretoria concerning policy towards Russia.

Today, South Africa-Russia trade is negligible and Russian investment in the country is modest.  South Africa and Russia, both members of BRICS, agree on the need to revise the world order but not much else.  

China Scores Points in Africa as US, EU, and Japan Fall Behind

 The Japan Times published on 7 May 2026 an article titled "Into Africa: China Continues Its Dominance on the Continent" by Brad Glosserman.  

The author writes that "as the United States creates barriers to trade and treats Africa with contempt and disdain, China scores points with a key diplomatic bloc and source of vital raw materials."  He argues that both Japan and the European Union need to do more to balance Beijing's determined effort in Africa.  

China's Zero Tariff Policy for Africa: An Opportunity Not a Guarantee

 B & FT Online posted on 29 April 2026 an article titled "Africa-China 2.0 with Paul Frimpong: Zero Tariff, Zero Excuses: Africa's Moment with China Has Arrived."

China's much heralded zero tariff policy for 20 more African countries, raising the total to 53 out of 54 countries on the continent, is an opportunity but will not guarantee significantly more African exports to China.  African countries must develop new trade strategies to take advantage of the opportunity and meet remaining Chinese quality and safety standards.   

How Does Africa Benefit from China's Zero Tariffs?

 Kenya's The Star published on 24 March 2026 an article titled "Africa Needs a Harmonised Strategy to Enjoy China's Zero-Tariff Treatment, Expert Reveals" by Rading Biko.

To take full advantage of China's new zero tariff policy, African countries need to pursue a harmonized strategy, meet Chinese import standards, and encourage value addition to African exports.  

Can Ethiopia's Strong Growth Rate Continue?

 Foreign Policy published on 18 February 2026 an article titled "What's Behind Ethiopia's Double Digit Growth: And Can Addis Ababa's Boon Last?" by Nosmot Gdabamosi. 

Ethiopia's impressive growth rate is being driven by floating the exchange rate for its currency, the birr, and strong exports of coffee and gold.  But high debt and involvement in Sudan's civil war could reverse the current positive numbers.   

Trump Names Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs

 South Africa's Daily Maverick published on 8 February 2026 an article titled "New Assistant Secretary of State for Africa: Manager of Trump Policies for the Continent He Hates?" by J. Brooks Spector.

Frank W. Garcia is the Trump administration nominee to be the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs.  A Congressional staffer focusing on intelligence issues, he has limited exposure to Africa.  He is now a senior adviser to the House of Representatives Select Committee on Intelligence.  He replaces Nick Checker, a former CIA analyst who had the title of senior bureau officer for African affairs but not assistant secretary.  

Facing High Trump Tariffs, South Africa Negotiates Deal with China

 The Associated Press published on 6 February 2026 an article titled "Facing High Trump Tariffs, Africa's Leading Economy Says It's Close to a Trade Deal with China" by Gerald Imray.  

The Trump administration put 30 percent duties on some South African goods.  Pretoria responded by signing a framework agreement with China for a new trade deal that would give some South African products duty-free access to the Chinese market.  China would receive enhanced investment opportunities in South Africa.  US-South Africa ties have plunged to their lowest point in decades.  

Fraying of US-South Africa Relations

 The Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies published on 16 January 2026 a policy brief titled "South Africa Eyes Confrontation with Trump over Growing Ties to China, Russia, Iran" by Max Meizlish and Daniel Swift.

South Africa's ANC-led government is testing the limits of cordial relations with the Trump administration by strengthening its ties with China, Russia, and Iran.  

Kenya-China Trade Deal and US Takes Step to Renew AGOA

 The Eastleigh Voice published on 15 January 2026 an article titled "Kenya Secures New Trade Deal with China Granting 98 Percent Zero-duty Access for Exports" by Barack Oduor.

Kenya and China reached a preliminary agreement that allows for 98.2 percent zero-duty market access for Kenyan goods.  The US House of Representatives also renewed for 3 years the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, which if approved by the Senate and signed by the president, would give Kenya widespread duty-free market access to the United States.

Comment:  Kenya has for years run a huge trade deficit with China.  It remains to be seen of this trade agreement with Beijing will improve the situation significantly from Kenya's standpoint.  In recent years, Kenya has had a modest goods and services trade surplus with the United States.  

Iranian Naval Vessels Withdraw from South African BRICS Exercise

 The Daily Maverick published on 12 January 2026 an article titled "Iran Pulls Out of SA's Joint Naval Exercise Amid Political Tensions" by Peter Fabricius.

Three Iranian naval vessels joined warships from South Africa, China, Russia, and the UAE in Simon's Town, South Africa, to participate in a weeklong BRICS' naval exercise.  The Iranian vessels will not, however, join the others as the exercise gets underway.  Pretoria reportedly urged Iran to withdraw from the exercise to avoid antagonizing the United States.  

Trump Administration's National Security Strategy and Africa

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 6 January 2026 an analysis titled "The Africa Blind Spot: The US National Security Strategy and the Risks of Retreat" by Christopher Faulkner and Raphael Parens.  

The Trump Administration's National Security Strategy document represents a significant shift in how the United States will approach Africa in the near term.  It reflects a preference for transactionalism, driven by the president's pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize.  

The limited discussion devoted to Africa (about a half a page) does not inherently reflect a lack of interest in the continent.  Instead, it demonstrates that the administration's interest in Africa will be constrained, selective, and dependent on what Africa can offer in an increasingly competitive world.  This effectively constitutes strategic disengagement.

The authors conclude that navigating between selective engagement and strategic retreat will not likely reduce the pressures that will draw the United States to the continent.  Instead, it risks deferring engagement, ensuring that future interventions, when they become unavoidable, are costlier and less effective.  

Chinese Foreign Minister on Annual Visit to Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 9 January 2026 an article titled "China FM Wang Yi Opens Africa Tour with United Call for Rules-based Order" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China and the African Union called for an international law-based order with respect for sovereignty in a lightly veiled criticism of the US strike against Venezuela.  China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, is on a visit to Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and Lesotho.  During his tour, he will likely juxtapose China's support for Africa against recent US actions that set back relations with the continent.

Chinese Overproduction and American Tariffs Set Back African Industrialization

 ZNetwork published on 28 December 2025 an analysis titled "Africa Deindustrializes Due to China's Overproduction and Trump Tariffs" by Patrick Bond.

African industrialization has struggled for decades but is now further hindered by China's overproduction and massive exports to Africa and Trump's new tariffs on African exports and the end of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act. 

Resetting US-China Competition in Africa

The National Interest published on 19 December 2025 an article titled "How to Reset US-China Competition in Africa" by Dan M. Ford and Wenjing Wang, both at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. 

The authors argue that the United States can compete more effectively with Chinese engagement in Africa if it sheds its security-focused, all-or-nothing mindset.  

Africa Mostly an Afterthought in US National Security Strategy

 The White House released this week the Trump administration's "National Security Strategy of the United States of America" dated November 2025.  

Africa receives relatively brief attention at the end of the 29-page report, although the introduction does include the Egypt/Ethiopia conflict as one of the eight conflicts President Trump has settled in his first eight months in office.

Rather than spread liberal ideology, according to the strategy paper, the US should instead look to partner with select countries to ameliorate conflict, foster mutually beneficial trade relationships, and transition from a foreign aid paradigm to an investment and growth paradigm. It should favor partnerships with capable and reliable states committed to opening their markets to US goods and services.  The US should seek good returns on investment in the energy and critical minerals sectors.  The US should avoid any long-term American presence or commitments. 

Comment:  The short section on Africa clearly reflects the Trump administration's "America First" strategy.  A policy towards Africa based on trade and investment is a noble goal, but largely dependent on the willingness and ability of the American private sector to implement it.  Past history demonstrates that without significant US government incentives, this policy is likely to disappoint.  

The inclusion of the conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia as one of the eight resolved by President Trump in his first eight months may come as a surprise to Ethiopia and Egypt.  

China and Russia Advance in Africa as US Narrows Interest to Critical Minerals

 Stimson published on 20 November 2025 a commentary titled "Trump's Critical Minerals Search in Africa Won't Tip the Scales Against China" by Mathew Burrows and Benjamin Weise.   

As the United States pulls back from Africa and narrows its interest to the extraction of critical minerals, China and Russia are expanding their engagement on the continent.

Africa and the Trump Administration

 AllAfrica.com posted on 23 October 2025 a commentary titled "Africa Should Not Expect Much from Donald Trump" by Johnnie Carson, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs during the Obama administration.  

Carson looks back and forwards, concluding that the Trump administration will be minimally engaged in Africa as programs from previous administrations shut down.  

Africa: US Ends AGOA and China Gains

 The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies published on 30 September 2025 a policy brief titled "China Set to Fill Gap from Expiration of Key U.S.-Africa Trade Program" by Daniel Swift and Angela Howard.

The U.S. Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired on 30 September, ending duty free access for many products from the continent.  Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Eswatini, and Mauritius had taken particular advantage of AGOA since it was signed by President Clinton.  As Africa's largest trading partner, China is expected to benefit most from the decrease in US-Africa trade.  

China-Africa Trade Favors China

 The Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria published on 2 September 2025 an analysis titled "Africa-China Trade: Openness Without Industry" by Marvellous Ngundu.  

China has been the major contributor to Africa's trade imbalance for the past decade, and the situation could worsen as China seeks to sell goods previously destined for the United States to other markets.  In 2024, a quarter of Africa's imports came from China while less than a fifth of Africa's exports went to China.  Angola, South Africa, and the DRC accounted for more than half of Africa's exports to China, comprising mostly oil, cobalt, copper, ore, slag, and ashes.  By contrast, Africa has had a consistent trade surplus with the United States.  

Scenarios for China-Africa Trade During Tariff War

 Nanyang Technological University posted on 5 September 2025 an analysis titled "China-Africa Trade Scenarios Amid Global Tariff War" by Rafiq Raji.

The author identifies 4 China-Africa trade scenarios emerging from the global tariff war.  (1) China continues to sell Africa manufactured goods and buy raw materials, resulting in growing African trade deficits.  (2)  China has excess manufacturing capacity and uses Africa as a dumping ground for Chinese goods. (3)  African countries exchange higher Chinese investment in mineral extraction for more value-added manufacturing capacity. (4)  Chinese firms invest in the production of manufactured goods from extracted raw materials both in Africa as well as upstream processing that plugs into global value chains.