Africa and the Trump Administration

 AllAfrica.com posted on 23 October 2025 a commentary titled "Africa Should Not Expect Much from Donald Trump" by Johnnie Carson, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs during the Obama administration.  

Carson looks back and forwards, concluding that the Trump administration will be minimally engaged in Africa as programs from previous administrations shut down.  

Trump Administration's Africa Policy: Filled with Challenges

 Semafor posted on 21 May 2025 a commentary titled "Analysis: The Challenge with Trump's 'Trade Not Aid' African Strategy" by W. Gyude Moore.  

The author suggests that while there may be merit in the Trump administration's Africa strategy, it is almost impossible to implement it when you dismantle the institutions designed to do so.  

DOGE Targets First Trump Administration's International Development Finance Corporation

 Politico published on 28 April 2025 an article titled "DOGE Targets US Foreign Aid Agency Created under First Trump Administration" by Robbie Gramer and Sophia Cai.  

The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) was created with bipartisan congressional support during the first Trump administration to provide private sector funding for development projects in lower- and middle-income countries--offering an alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative.

A team of DOGE personnel went to the DFC headquarters in Washington this week to begin assessing the agency's effectiveness and alignment with the president's agenda.  

Comment:  Because the DFC was created during the first Trump administration, it may be left intact.  In any event, it was a good initiative that should be retained.  But that has not stopped DOGE from dismantling other good institutions such as the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, U.S. Institute of Peace, and the Woodrow Wilson Center.  

State Department Reorganization: For Efficiency or Kneecapping Foreign Policy?

 The Hill published on 27 April 2025 an article titled "Rubio's State Department Scale-down: Efficiency or Global Retreat?" by Laura Kelly.

The Trump administration argues that reorganization of the State Department is intended to make it more efficient.  Critics respond that it is kneecapping US influence in foreign policy.

Comment:  There are almost certainly elements of efficiency included in Secretary of State Marco Rubio's plan to reorganize the State Department.  But when combined with the Trump administration's dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development, Millennium Challenge Corporation, Voice of America and affiliated media outlets, and a host of lesser-known international affairs institutions, the result is mostly a global retreat in US influence in foreign affairs.

How Dismantling U.S. Foreign Policy Institutions Appeases Russia (and China)

 The New York Times published on 26 April 2025 an article titled "How Trump Plays into Putin's Hands from Ukraine to Slashing U.S. Institutions" by Peter Baker.

While the focus of the article in on Trump's Ukraine policy and how it plays into the hands of Vladimir Putin, it also argues that plans to dismantle the following foreign policy organizations have the same effect: National Endowment for Democracy, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, US Agency for International Development, International Republican Institute, and National Democratic Institute.

Comment:  Institutions in the process of dismantlement that should be added to this list are the U.S. Institute of Peace, Millennium Challenge Corporation, Woodrow Wilson Foundation, and other media services under the U.S. Agency for Global Media such as the Office of Cuba Broadcasting, Radio Free Asia, and Middle East Broadcasting Networks.  

While Peter Baker's article only deals with the impact on Russia of the elimination of these pro-democracy foreign policy institutions by Elon Musk and the Trump administration, the decisions will be equally welcomed in Beijing.  

Elon Musk Shuts Down Millennium Challenge Corporation

 Politico published on 23 April 2025 an article titled "DOGE Is Shutting Down Foreign Aid Agency Millennium Challenge Corporation" by Ben Johansen.

The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) is offering voluntary early retirement or deferred resignations to its 320 employees and planning to terminate grants to developing countries.  MCC, which was established by the Bush administration and is independent of the State Department, currently has over $5.4 billion in active grants to 20 lower income countries, many in Africa.  All MCC operations are expected to end within 90 days.  

Comment:  One more ill-conceived decision by the Trump administration.

Can the Remnants of USAID Be Merged Successfully into the State Department?

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 25 March 2025 an analysis titled "How to Successfully Merge USAID and the Department of State" by Daniel F. Runde.  

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the State Department will administer what remains of USAID programs.  The author notes that numerous other aid donor countries have followed this pattern, and the US could learn from them.  The author then proposes a number of steps needed to merge State and USAID successfully.

Comment:  This scenario makes some sense if done thoughtfully and in advance of the dismantlement of USAID.  It holds little chance of succeeding after USAID has been dismantled and its personnel dispersed unless the goal is to retain virtually nothing of former American foreign aid programs. 

At the turn of the last century, the United States Information Service (USIA) merged with State and became the public affairs division of State.  It was done methodically, thoughtfully, and with great effort to preserve most of its former programs.  But even in this case, the State Department public affairs division has never lived up to the success of the former USIA. 

Great Power Competition in Africa

 This is the opening statement on 11 September 2024 of Acting Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, John Bass, on "Great Power Competition in Africa" before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

The statement is critical of China's trade practices in Africa.  It is even more critical of Russia's widespread human rights abuses and disinformation activities on the continent.  

Trump Administration and Africa Policy

Newsweek published on 22 February 2019 a commentary titled "Trump May Be About To Undermine Obama's Africa Policy" by Herman J. Cohen, former assistant secretary of state for African affairs.

The author argued that there are indications the Trump administration could end well established Africa programs put in place by the Bush and Obama administrations.

US Policy in Africa

Tibor Nagy, assistant secretary of state for African affairs, testified on 12 December 2018 before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on US policy towards Africa. His remarks were titled "Development, Diplomacy, and Defense: Promoting U.S. Interests in Africa."

Nagy repeated many of the Africa policy themes that were common in previous administrations. There was one change concerning China, which he said is asserting itself in Africa economically, militarily, and politically. As a result, the US must remain a positive alternative, and make clear that engaging with the United States will mean greater prosperity and security for Africa.

Trump's Africa Policy

Lobelog posted on 23 April 2018 a commentary titled "Trump's Africa Policy Is a Continuation of Clinton's, Bush's, and Obama's" by Herman J. Cohen, former assistant secretary of state for African affairs.

Cohen underscores the continuity in US policy towards Africa from one administration to another that has continued so far into the Trump administration.

Competing in Africa: China, EU and US

Brookings published on 16 April 2018 an analysis titled "Competing in Africa: China, the European Union and the United States" by Witney Schneidman and Joel Wiegert.

The authors conclude that China's commercial presence in Africa will continue to grow but raise questions about its loans adding to Africa's debt burden. The EU will focus on providing European companies with competitive tariff advantages. The US Congress is currently driving, to the extent anyone is driving, US policy towards Africa.

How US Companies Can Compete with China in Africa

The Atlantic Council in Washington released on 7 September 2017 two issue briefs concerning possibilities for doing business in Africa, especially in light of significant Chinese competition. The first paper is titled "Escaping China's Shadow: Finding America's Competitive Edge in Africa" by Aubrey Hruby, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Africa Center. The paper identifies the following five sectors as good prospects for American business: professional and business services; financial services; media, entertainment and information; agribusiness; and renewable energy.

A companion paper, which focuses on the nature of African consumers, is titled "Capturing the African Consumer Market: Truths, Trends, and Strategies for the Road Ahead" by Aleksandra W. Gadzala, a geopolitical risk consultant.

Africa: The Obama Legacy and Prospects for the Trump Administration

The VOA Encounter program with Carol Castiel ran over the weekend of 25 November 2016 a half-hour discussion of President Obama's legacy in Africa and the outlook for President-elect Trump. The guests were J. Peter Pham, director of the Atlantic Council's Africa Center, and myself.

Africa and the Trump Administration: A Clean Slate

The Hill published on 21 November 2016 a commentary titled "A Consensus Play: The Opportunity of Africa for a Trump Administration" by K. Riva Levinson, president of a Washington-based consultancy.

She argues that the Trump administration has a clean slate on Africa and this may offer an opportunity to continue in a bipartisan way with the best of previous Democratic and Republican administrations such as the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, Millennium Challenge Corporation, Global Entrepreneurship Summit, Young African Leaders Initiative, Power Africa, and PEPFAR.

US Trade and Investment with Africa

The White House published on 21 September 2016 a fact sheet titled "U.S.-Africa Cooperation on Trade and Investment Under the Obama Administration."

This document offers a good summary of U.S. programs and efforts to increase trade and investment with Africa. U.S. investment in Africa has increased impressively from a total of $37 billion in 2008 to $64 billion in 2015. Trade, on the other hand, has dropped sharply from $142 billion in 2008 to $52 billion in 2015. Most of the decline is accounted for as a result of reduced oil imports from Africa following fracking in the United States.

China and the US in Africa

The Biz Asia America program at CCTV asked me to comment on 6 August 2014 on the US-Africa Summit.  Most of the five minute program dealt with China and the United States in Africa.

New Initiatives During Obama Trip to Africa

During his trip to Senegal, South Africa and Tanzania from 26 June 2013 until 3 July 2013, President Barack Obama announced three key initiatives.  While there was far too much focus in the press on issues such as the high cost of the trip (all presidential travel is expensive for security reasons), it will increasingly be associated with the three key initiatives: Power Africa, Trade Africa and the Washington Fellowship for Young African Leaders.

The White House released on 30 June 2013 "Fact Sheet: Power Africa," which explains that the initiative will double access to power in sub-Saharan Africa by adding more than 10,000 megawatts of efficient electricity generation capacity.  Initial partners include Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Nigeria and Tanzania.  Power Africa will also work with Uganda and Mozambique on responsible oil and gas management.  The U.S. will commit more than $7 billion to the effort over the next 5 years.  For example, USAID will provide $285 million in technical assistance; the Overseas Private Investment Corporation up to $1.5 billion in financing and insurance for energy projects; U.S. Export-Import Bank up to $5 billion in support of U.S. exports for the development of power projects; and the Millennium Challenge Corporation up to $1 billion in African power systems.  Power Africa will leverage private sector investment, beginning with more than $9 billion from companies such as General Electric, Heirs Holding and Symbion Power.

The White House released on 1 July 2013 "Fact Sheet: Trade Africa," which will focus initially on the members of the East African Community (EAC)--Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda.  Trade Africa aims to double intra-regional trade in the EAC, increase EAC exports to the U.S. by 40 percent, reduce by 15 percent the average time needed to import or export a container from the ports of Mombasa and Dar es Salaam to land-locked Burundi and Rwanda, and decrease by 30 percent the average time a truck takes to transit selected borders.  Trade Africa may eventually expand to other African regions.

The President announced the third initiative concerning interaction with African youth in South Africa on 29 June 2013.  The Washington Fellowship for Young African Leaders beginning in 2014 will bring more than 500 young African leaders to the U.S. each year for leadership training and mentoring.  They will spend 6 weeks at top American universities in tailored training programs and have the opportunity to participate in internships in the private and public sectors.  Microsoft, for example, will connect Washington Fellows with internships at their offices across Africa.  Ethiopian Airlines will offer participants the opportunity to train at their business management and corporate governance platforms around the world.  The U.S. will award more than $5 million in small grants to Washington Fellows who seek to start their own businesses or social enterprises.  USAID will establish regional hubs and coordinators to connect Washington Fellows to these opportunities and leverage over $200 million in ongoing youth programs.

Everything considered, not a bad result for a visit that received surprisingly little press coverage--and much of that negative. 

"What Obama Needs to Do to Effectively Engage with Africa"

I'm quoted in Brittany Hutson's Atlanta Post article on President Obama and Africa. Here is the full text of the responses I sent the reporter:

Q: What is the benefit of Obama increasing his engagement with Africa? Why is it important for him to connect with Africa?

A: Africa constitutes 1 billion people living in 53 countries. African countries make up more than one-quarter of the membership of the United Nations and many have voting power in other international forums. Africa is the source for about 20 percent of American oil imports and potentially a significant market for American exports, particularly in view of Africa’s average 5 percent GDP growth rate in recent years. The United States needs the agreement of African countries for military aircraft over flight and landing rights and access to African ports for its naval vessels headed for the Indian Ocean. Finally, African-Americans make up almost 13 percent of the U.S. population. These factors explain why it is important for President Obama or any other U.S. president to connect with Africa.

Q: What are some ways that he can connect with Africa successfully?

A: The United States has a large and long-standing assistance program for Africa that focuses on countering HIV/AIDS, providing humanitarian aid and development assistance through the Millennium Challenge Corporation and USAID. Nearly the entire program consists of grants so that it does not contribute to African debt. Although President Obama has made one visit to Ghana and another to Egypt in connection with Middle East issues, high level visits are one of the most effective ways to connect with Africa. Secretary of State Clinton also made a long visit to Africa in 2010.

The Obama administration could increase the number of high level visits and also extend invitations to more African leaders to visit Washington. U.S. exports to Africa are not significant and investment has tapered off in recent years. It is important that the U.S. private sector and the government make a greater effort to increase two-way U.S. trade with Africa and give added impetus to U.S. investment in Africa. The U.S. media could also do a better job of covering developments in Africa, especially positive ones. Famines, civil wars and natural disasters get plenty of attention; most other developments do not.

Q: What should he be cautious of or try to avoid as he attempts to connect with Africa?

A: While it is important that the United States give priority to those African countries that are working hard to democratize and improve human rights, the United States should not give the impression that it is preaching to governments whose reputations on these issues are less than what the international community expects. It is better to lead by example than the bully pulpit. The United States should also become a better listener in its interaction with African countries. To its credit, the Obama administration’s Africa policy seems to have learned the negative lessons of an obsessively zealous approach to the global war on terror in parts of Africa.

BBC Focus on Africa asks for analysis of Western relations with Ethiopia

As the election approaches in Ethiopia on 23 May, the BBC Focus on Africa program asked on May 17 for my views on why the United States and Western countries generally consider Ethiopia to be the "darling" of Africa.

While I acknowledged that Ethiopia has cordial relations with most Western countries and has a privileged relationship with the United States, I would not describe it as the "darling." U.S. officials, in their dialogue with Ethiopian officials, regularly express their concern over Ethiopian human rights practices, the slow pace of democratization and even a few economic policies that it finds wanting.

At the same time, the United States must balance these concerns with Ethiopia's success in achieving a respectable GDP growth rate, significantly improving infrastructure and support for United Nations peacekeeping operations in Africa and cooperation with the United States on counter-terrorism.

Ethiopia is the world’s 12th largest supplier of troops for UN peacekeeping operations. Its policy in Somalia in late 2006 and 2007 generally coincided with U.S. policy towards Somalia at the time. In my view, this policy was misguided, but the fact remains that the United States and Ethiopia worked together in Somalia.

The BBC asked why the United States does not pressure Ethiopia to improve its human rights practices. While it is true that the United States provides a considerable amount of aid to Ethiopia, about 90 percent of it is designed to counter HIV/AIDS or provide emergency food aid. This does not provide political leverage. The United States would make this kind of assistance available irrespective of the government in Addis Ababa.

The interviewer suggested there is a double standard when it comes to assistance to Ethiopia as compared to Kenya. But the United States has not eliminated aid to Kenya. While it may be less on a proportional basis, it still continues. If you move one country further south to Tanzania, you have an aid relationship that underscores U.S. support for a country that is in some ways more positive than the U.S. aid relationship with Ethiopia. Tanzania qualified for a half billion dollar grant from the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). Ethiopia does not even qualify for funding from the MCC.