How Dismantling U.S. Foreign Policy Institutions Appeases Russia (and China)

 The New York Times published on 26 April 2025 an article titled "How Trump Plays into Putin's Hands from Ukraine to Slashing U.S. Institutions" by Peter Baker.

While the focus of the article in on Trump's Ukraine policy and how it plays into the hands of Vladimir Putin, it also argues that plans to dismantle the following foreign policy organizations have the same effect: National Endowment for Democracy, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, US Agency for International Development, International Republican Institute, and National Democratic Institute.

Comment:  Institutions in the process of dismantlement that should be added to this list are the U.S. Institute of Peace, Millennium Challenge Corporation, Woodrow Wilson Foundation, and other media services under the U.S. Agency for Global Media such as the Office of Cuba Broadcasting, Radio Free Asia, and Middle East Broadcasting Networks.  

While Peter Baker's article only deals with the impact on Russia of the elimination of these pro-democracy foreign policy institutions by Elon Musk and the Trump administration, the decisions will be equally welcomed in Beijing.  

South Sudanese react to new status

The National Democratic Institute (NDI) conducted focus groups at 52 locations in South Sudan from 16 March to 6 April 2011 in an effort to determine the views of South Sudanese on the prospects for successful independence.

NDI just released a summary of the results here (PDF).

South Sudanese responded that the most significant barriers to the creation of a successful nation are insecurity, underdevelopment, corruption and tribalism.

What Somalis think about Somalia

In Dec. 2010, the National Democratic Institute released a fascinating study (PDF) of Somali opinion on a wide variety of topics based on 38 focus groups in 11 locations in Somalia and two near Nairobi and 35 one-on-one interviews with traditional and religious leaders.

The discussions and interviews took place in June 2010 and involved 434 Somali participants. While the results may have been skewed by the locations in Somalia where they took place, this is one of the few efforts to obtain in an organized way Somali opinion on Somali issues. A few of the results are surprising, at least to me.

Some of the key conclusions follow:

• The participants viewed Somali clanism as a “cancer.”
• There was a strong desire for national reconciliation.
• The participants wanted the government to focus on stability and security.
• They welcomed rule by Islamic law rather than clans.
• Sharia is the best system of law for Somalia, including as the basis for the new constitution.
• Religious leaders have an important role to play in government.
• The participants were less able to define a role for traditional leaders.
• The participants had unclear ideas about the meaning of democracy and some saw it as anti-Islam.
• Most participants equated federalism with clanism.
• The participants said no real government currently exists in Somalia and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) does not represent their interests.
• The situation in Somalia has deteriorated under the TFG.
• The participants wanted to eliminate the 4.5 formula used by the TFG.
• There was strong support for a referendum on the new constitution.
• The participants expressed a willingness to put limits on freedom of expression in Somalia.
• Many participants were unwilling to give special rights to minorities.

Challenges for Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government

The National Democratic Institute (NDI) hosted a delegation of seven prominent members of parliament from the Somali Transitional Federal Government during their visit to Washington on June 18-25. NDI asked me to address the delegation at its final diner in Washington on 24 June. My remarks to this group appear below.

David Shinn's remarks to Somali Transitional Federal Government Members of Parliament in Washington, D.C., ...

NDI report on Sudan

The National Democratic Institute for International Affairs has in recent years done some excellent focus group reports on a variety of topics in East Africa and the Horn. Its most recent report by Traci D. Cook and Dan Vexter dated September 30, 2009, and titled "Imagining the Election: A Look at What Citizens Know and Expect of Sudan's 2010 Vote" contains findings from focus groups with men and women in southern Sudan and the three border areas. I believe those of you following the Comprehensive Peace Agreement will find that this report contains valuable research and conclusions. You can access it here (PDF).