How Many Deaths Is Demise of USAID Causing?

 The Economist published on 30 July 2026 an article titled "How Many People Are Dying as a Result of USAID's Demise?"

Elon Musk, who is responsible for dismantling the US Agency for International Development (USAID), insists it has not cost any human lives.  The influential publication, Lancet, estimates that by 2030, 14 million people will die as a result of USAID's demise.

The Economist explains that the drop in US health funding has been less cataclysmic than originally predicted and that early estimates of deaths drew on trends that may no longer be valid.  While the early estimates of deaths are too high, Musk's notion of zero deaths is plainly wrong. Lives have been lost.

Status of Fired USAID Staff

 The Hill published on 22 July 2026 a commentary titled "The Dismantling of USAID and the Firing of Its Staff Was Illegal" by J. Brian Atwood and Kevin E. Burns.

The Trump administration has violated the Civil Service Reform Act of 1883, updated in 1978, by firing most USAID personnel without offering an opportunity for due process.

The Merit Systems Protection Board ruled that the president can remove career officials without due process.  Fired USAID employees are appealing this decision through the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

Picking Up the Pieces at the US State Department

 The Federal News Network published on 16 July 2026 an article titled "Laid-off Federal Employees Spotlight Impacts of State Dept. RIF" by Drew Friedman.

The State Department laid off nearly 1,350, mostly civil service, staff and DOGE fired almost all USAID personnel and abolished the organization, moving a small number of USAID employees to the State Department.  The State Department is now scrambling to figure out how to cope with issues such as Ebola in Africa.  

Marco Rubio Dismantles Human Rights at State Department

 Foreign Policy published on 8 July 2026 an article titled "Marco Rubio Burned Down the House to Fix a Sink" by Amanda Klasing, Amnesty International.  

Secretary of State Rubio has led an assault on human rights in American statecraft by slashing humanitarian aid, decimating human rights programs, gutting human rights offices and bureaus, disengaging from global human rights systems at the United Nations and elsewhere, and threatening international justice mechanisms.  

He has also changed the guidelines for the State Department's annual, global human rights reports by prioritizing political agendas over consistent accounting of human rights violations around the world.

Reversing DOGE Damage to State Department

 Federal News Network published on 10 July 2026 an article titled "State Dept. Is Looking to Rebuild after Major Staffing Cuts.  Laid-off Diplomats Say They Are Not Welcome Back" by Jory Heckman.

After arbitrarily firing 1,350 State Department employees last summer, the administration is now trying to hire staff so that the organization has the personnel to carry out the functions expected of it.

Comment: This is a classic example of how not to "reform" a large bureaucratic, governmental organization.   

USAID Dismantlement Has Resulted in Deaths

 The New York Times published on 1 July 2026 a commentary titled "U.S.A.I.D. Cuts Killed People.  That's the Truth" by Nicholas Kristof.  

Elon Musk, who at the beginning of the Trump administration ran DOGE, the organization that dismantled the US Agency for International Development, insists "there is not even a single dead child" as a result of the actions by DOGE.  

Nicholas Kristof, who has met with family members in Africa of dead children, begs to differ.  In addition, studies by university researchers and by Lancet, a British medical journal, estimate that deaths due to USAID financial cuts are in the hundreds of thousands.   

Foreign Aid: US Congress vs the Trump Administration

 Propublica published on 22 June 2026 an article titled "'A Huge Grab of Power': Trump Is Defying Congress on Foreign Aid" by Anna Maria Barry-Jester.  

Bipartisan support for foreign aid remains in the US Congress despite the Trump administration's dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development and its effort to minimize US foreign assistance now administered by the State Department, which does not have the capacity to manage it in any event.  

Dismantling USAID: DOGE Must Explain Why

 Axios published on 5 February 2026 an article titled "Elon Musk, State Department Workers to Be Deposed over DOGE Dismantling USAID" by Julianna Bragg.

A federal judge ruled that Elon Musk and State Department officials must sit for depositions over their role in dismantling the US Agency for International Development.  

State Department Tries to Manage Foreign Aid without Adequate Staff

 Foreign Policy published on 16 December 2025 an article titled "The Trump Administration's Epochal Shift on Foreign Aid" by Deborah Kaliel and Phillip Palmer, both former USAID officials.

The Trump administration abolished the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and shifted its remnants into a State Department that was and still is inadequately staffed to handle the new responsibilities.  

Comment: It should have come as a surprise to no one that the State Department was ill-prepared to add responsibility for running what is left of American foreign aid programs, especially following sharp reductions in State Department staffing.  While USAID operated in missions overseas closely affiliated with the US embassy, all of the USAID offices closed at the demand of Elon Musk and DOGE.  State Department personnel, unfamiliar with USAID programs, were expected to pick up the pieces.  This was obviously not going to work, and US foreign policy is now paying a steep price for this mistake.

American Food Aid after the Destruction of USAID

 The George Washington University Global Food Institute published in October 2025 a report titled "Surveying the Food Aid Ecosystem: Six Months Post-USAID."

The Trump administration dismantled the US Agency for International Development soon after Donald Trump assumed the presidency.  This triggered the most significant humanitarian funding shift in decades.  Billions of dollars in cuts, abrupt stop-work orders, and inconsistent exemptions affected programs across more than 70 countries.  To learn the results of this development, a team from GWU interviewed more than 20 stakeholders across the food aid and assistance ecosystem.

They concluded that local non-governmental organizations, abandoned mid-project without resources, may be reluctant to partner again under U.S. government funding.  Formal forums like the Food Aid Consultative Group ceased functioning, leaving organizations to rely on ad hoc back channels and personal networks.  Agricultural development support has been broadly curtailed, leaving in place short-term in-kind food aid and some humanitarian assistance.  Organizations that once worked through formal networks convened by USAID, the United Nations, and others are increasingly sharing information and advocacy strategies through informal channels.

The pathways of funding, information, and cooperation that defined the aid sector for decades are giving way to a thinner, more fragmented system.  The hope going forward is to shape a more resilient, equitable, and evidence-driven aid system. 

A Shout Out for US Diplomacy

 The Bulletin in Bend, Oregon reprinted on 29 July 2025 a commentary originally published in the Chicago Tribune titled "Burning Down America's Best Tool for Peace and Prosperity" by Elisabeth Shakelford, Dartmouth.

The author makes the case against the recent major cuts in State Department staffing instituted by DOGE.  She argues that diplomacy is the least expensive way to resolve or mitigate global crises.  

Postmortem on Dismantling of USAID

 The Hill Published on 20 July 2025 an article titled "A Postmortem on the Dismantling of USAID" by Glenn C. Altschuler, Cornell University.  

The Trump administration cancelled 83 percent of USAID's programs and laid off 94 percent of its 4,500 employees, transferring the few remaining staff to the State Department.  The author concluded that the dismantling of USAID has already had a negative impact on the lives of tens of millions of vulnerable people in 130 countries and undermined US national interest.

A Testimonial against Dismantling USAID

 The Oklahoman published on 7 July 2025 a commentary titled "The Cruelty of Ending Work of USAID Erases a Lifetime of Humanitarianism" by Kama Garrison, former USAID employee.

The author offers a personal account of the abrupt end of her career at the US Agency for International Development.  She concludes that her reaction is not about partisan politics.  It is about moral unraveling.  

What Remains of USAID?

 The New York Times published on 22 June 2025 an article titled "What Remains of U.S.A.I.D.?" by Amy Schoenfeld Walker, Malika Khurana, and Christine Zhang.

The USAID projects that survived DOGE dismantlement of the agency are the result of pleas and negotiations of a few politically important people, many of whom had little experience in foreign aid.  Some 891 programs constituting 14 percent of the previous total and $69 billion survived and will be administered by the State Department.  DOGE cancelled USAID projects worth $76 billion over several years.

There was no comprehensive review of previous programs.  The focus going forward is addressing acute disease, hunger, and other humanitarian emergencies.  The State Department does not have the staff, resources, or expertise to oversee the programs that survived DOGE cuts.  

Fourteen Days that Doomed USAID

 The New York Times published on 22 June 2025 an article titled "Missteps, Confusion and 'Viral Waste': The 14 Days that Doomed USAID" by Christopher Flavelle, Nicholas Nehamas, and Julie Tate.

This is the detailed story of the 14 days that it took Elon Musk, the DOGE team, and the Trump administration to dismantle the US Agency for International Development.  

Waste in Africa Because of Dismantlement of USAID

 The New York Times published on 21 June 2025 a commentary titled "The Waste Musk Created" by Nicolas Kristof.  

The article provides examples of waste in US government financed programs in Africa because of the dismantlement of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), not the existence of USAID.

Dismantlement of USAID Has Resulted in Deaths But Numbers Are Not Known

 The New York Times published on 30 May 2025 a commentary titled "Elon Musk's Legacy Is Disease, Starvation and Death" by Michelle Goldberg.

Elon Musk's DOGE terminated more than 80 percent of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) grants and dismantled the foreign aid agency.  One estimate places the number of deaths as a result of these decisions already at 300.000.  Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists there have been no deaths.

Comment:  It is impossible to know how many deaths have occurred as a result of ending or cutting back USAID's life saving foreign aid programs.  But anyone with extensive experience in the Global South, especially Africa, knows there have been deaths and the death rate will almost certainly increase going forward so long as these cuts remain in place. 

Federal Judge Blocks Trump Administration Dismantlement of US Institute of Peace

 The Associated Press published on 19 May 2025 an article titled "Judge Bars Trump Administration from Shutting Peace Institute that Sought to End Violent Conflicts" by Gary Fields.

A US District Court judge blocked the Trump administration from moving forward with the dismantling of the US Institute of Peace in Washington.  The judge ruled that the think tank was created and funded by Congress and was taken over illegally by DOGE through "blunt force backed up by law enforcement officers from three separate local and federal agencies."  The administration has 30 days to appeal.

Comment:  This was one of the most egregious decisions by the Trump administration to dismantle a foreign affairs related organization. Although the administration may appeal the ruling, it probably faces an uphill battle in the case of USIP.   

Is the Chaos at the State Department Over?

American Diplomat podcast, hosted by Arizona State University, posted on 8 May 2025 a 40-minute program titled "Is the Chaos at State Over?" with Tibor Nagy, a retired career Foreign Service Officer who served as assistant secretary of state for African affairs in the first Trump administration and for the first three months of the current Trump administration as the acting undersecretary of state for management.

The podcast focused on reorganization and reform of the State Department and Foreign Service.  The DOGE team showed up early in the administration before Secretary of State Marco Rubio's small staff could get their feet on the ground.  This was followed by an avalanche of executive orders from the White House.  Chaos followed. Rubio demonstrated his independence from DOGE early when he said State Department personnel did not have to respond to its request for a list of five things each employee had accomplished in the past week.  

Tibor explained that USAID will be folded into the State Department, although many questions remain as to how its functions will be organized.  He acknowledged that the way USAID was dismantled by DOGE was chaotic and heartless.  There were initially huge screwups, but these have been largely overcome.

Tibor argues that the chaos is over in the State Department now that DOGE has moved on.  He added that it makes sense to combine some of the functions that were previously done in separate offices.  There was too much duplication and inefficiency.  

When asked what the Department of State will look like at the end of the Trump administration, he thought it would be better prepared to deal with the foreign policy issues the United States faces in the 21st century.  Artificial intelligence and new technology are changing the way the Department will operate and it is essential to adapt to the new situation. 

When asked about closing embassies and consulates, Tibor said the US diplomatic presence should be as universal as possible but added it is not necessary to have an embassy everywhere.  He suggested there is no need, for example, to have an embassy in Luxembourg, Sao Tome and Principe, and the Comoro Islands.  Some embassies are overstaffed and can be reduced in size while others may be short staffed.

Tibor admitted that morale in the State Department at the beginning of this process was terrible, but suggested much of the uncertainty has been removed and morale is now much improved.  

Comment:  While there are clearly components of the State Department that need reorganization and reform, Tibor is far more optimistic than I am that the changes currently underway will by the end of the Trump administration result in a more efficient and effective foreign policy process.    

The Negative Impact of Whacking Foreign Aid

 The Washington Post published on 2 May 2025 an article titled "After 100 Days, the Toll of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts Has Begun to Sink In" by Sammy Westfall.

The Trump administration has axed more than 80 percent of the programs funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.  The administration is also in the process of slashing the U.S. African Development Foundation, U.S. Institute of Peace, Inter-American Foundation, and Millennium Challenge Corporation.  

The article looks at the impact of these cuts on South Sudan, Ethiopia, Jordan, Tanzania, Eswatini, Lesotho, Afghanistan, and Yemen.  

Comment:  The administration is getting close to ending government-funded soft power, which has traditionally been a major U.S. foreign policy tool.  Although they will not fill the financial void left by the United States, the governments of China and Russia will take very possible advantage of America's departure from these programs.