US Connection to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces

 Reuters published on 15 July 2026 an in-depth article titled "The US Army Veteran and the Mystery Boeings Flying Sudan's War Routes" by Alexander Dziadosz, Reade Levinson, and David Lewis.  

Companies registered in Singapore and the UAE owned by a US government, and military contractor and US Army Special Forces veteran have been operating several Boeing aircraft linking regional supply routes of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.  The United Nations has accused the RSF of genocide.  The United States has not sanctioned the companies.  

South Sudan: Francis Deng Tries to Put on Best Face

Foreign Policy published on 14 July 2014 an article titled "Responsibility to Protect the Bad Guys" by Colum Lynch.  It is an analysis of efforts by Francis Deng, South Sudan's permanent representative to the United Nations, to put the best face on developments in South Sudan. 

UN Peacekeeping Profile for Ethiopia

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Addis Ababa published on 16 November 2013 a profile of Ethiopia's peacekeeping participation in UN operations.  It looks at current contributions and also Ethiopia's historic involvement in peacekeeping.  The author is Solomon Ayele Dersso, who is with the ISS office in Addis Ababa.

AMISOM and Civilian Protection in Somalia

The most recent issue of Stability: International Journal of Security and Development published an article titled "The African Union Mission in Somalia and Civilian Protection Challenges" by Paul D. Williams, Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University.

Williams explains why it has taken so long for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to adopt a mission-wide protection-of-civilians strategy.  He identifies four challenges confronting AMISOM, adding that to be successful the new strategy must overcome these material, legal, moral, and doctrinal challenges.

UN and African Union Peace Operations

The International Peace Institute (IPI) published a paper in April 2013 titled "Peace Operations, the African Union and the United Nations: Toward More Effective Partnerships."  The authors are Arthur Boutellis, research fellow at IPI, and Paul D. Williams, associate professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University.

The paper analyzes the evolution of collaboration between the UN and AU on peace operations and asks how they can cooperate more effectively.  It looks at the AU mission in Somalia as a case study that exemplifies some of the positive and negative aspects of the UN-AU relationship.  The paper then summarizes some of the challenges that will need to be overcome if the two organizations are to optimize their collaboration and deploy legitimate and effective peace operations.  It concludes by offering some practical recommendations for enhancing UN-AU relations.

UN Role in Somalia

Anthony Banbury, UN assistant secretary general for field support, wrote a commentary on the UN role in Somalia that appeared in the 23 October 2012 Washington Post. He accurately emphasized the UN's important and continuing effort in Somalia since the early 1990s to encourage peace and provide humanitarian aid, albeit downplaying the missteps of the UNOSOM phase in the mid-1990s.

Although he cited the role of the African Union in Somalia (AMISOM), it should be underscored that AMISOM has done the heavy lifting in Somalia since 2007. The African Union (mainly Ugandan and Burundi forces joined later by the Kenyans and Djiboutians) sent troops to Somalia when the United Nations chose not to do so.

Click here to read Banbury's commentary.

Sudan and South Sudan: Preventing War

The International Crisis Group (ICG) issued a warning on 18 April 2012 that Sudan and South Sudan are teetering on the brink of all-out war. It called for diplomatic pressure to cease hostilities and a return to negotiations with pressure on both governments from the UN Security Council as well as the United States, China and key Gulf states.

I would add that the neighbors of Sudan and South Sudan also need to exert maximum pressure on both parties to step back from the abyss. Neither country can "win" an all-out war. The result would be be devastation for both Sudan and South Sudan and probably the collapse of both governments.

To read the entire ICG warning, click here.

Kenyan troops enter Somalia

BBC radio and television asked me to comment 17 October on Kenya’s military intervention in Somalia. While acknowledging that Kenya had other options to pursue, including taking the matter to the United Nations, I suggested that the frustration of recent attacks inside Kenya against tourists and non-governmental organization personnel pushed the Kenyans to the limit. They decided they had to respond militarily. Obtaining some kind of UN sanction for the operation would have taken considerable time.

It is not clear whether al-Shabaab carried out the attacks inside Kenya, but it is clear that the perpetrators took the hostages to territory inside Somalia controlled by al-Shabaab, thus making al-Shabaab complicit in the attacks.

The objective of the Kenyan military operation and the length of time the Kenyan forces intend to remain inside Somalia remain unclear. The longer they remain, however, the greater will be the animosity of the average Somali against Kenya.

The Kenyan forces may intend to clear a buffer zone along the Kenya-Somali border and then install Somali forces who oppose al-Shabaab and are friendly with Kenya. Kenya may go as far as the important al-Shabaab port city of Kismayu and try to put friendly Somali forces in charge of the port so that al-Shabaab can no longer use it as a major source of revenue, including the transit of products that are smuggled into Kenya.

This action does raise the possibility of al-Shabaab terrorist attacks inside Kenya such as occurred in Kampala, Uganda, in July 2010. So far, al-Shabaab has avoided terrorist attacks in Kenya because, I believe, it benefits from the illegal trade into Kenya and receives financial support from sympathizers in the large Somali community in Nairobi. Al-Shabaab did not want to jeopardize this cozy relationship by attacking Kenya. It may now conclude that retaliation is more important than continuing the economic advantages that it had in Kenya.

Kenya almost certainly consulted key allies such as Ethiopia, the United States and United Kingdom on this operation but the decision to send troops into Somalia was, I believe, Kenya’s alone. The United States has in the past provided counterterrorism training and shared intelligence with key allies in the region, including Kenya. Although I doubt that the United States had a direct role in the intervention, there is no reason to believe that it objected to the operation.

Ethiopian peacekeeping troops going to Abyei in Sudan

UN Peacekeepers on Patrol in Abyei. May 24, 2011. Flickr/UN.

The BBC World Service asked me to comment June 20 on the decision earlier in the day by Sudan to accept Ethiopian troops under United Nations mandate to keep the peace in troubled Abyei region along the north-south Sudanese border.

I responded that Ethiopia has had experience in providing peacekeeping troops in the past and is probably one of the few African countries that could make available a brigade (about 4,000 troops) on short notice. Ethiopia troops are acceptable to both North and South Sudan and do not have to come from a long distance, although they may need transport assistance in getting to Abyei.

The BBC announcer suggested that Ethiopian troops might get into the same kinds of problems in Abyei that they encountered in Somalia from 2007 to 2009. While I agreed that they had significant problems in Somalia, this situation is different.

Ethiopia, with the approval of the Somali Transitional Federal Government, made the decision unilaterally to enter Somalia. It was not a UN peacekeeping operation. Abyei is sanctioned and paid for by the UN. The circumstances are entirely different.

It is unlikely the Ethiopian force will encounter the same kinds of problems in Abyei that they faced in Somalia.

UN force commander comments on UN mission in South Sudan

Major General Moses Bisong Obi, force commander of the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS), spoke at Chatham House in the UK on March 3.

He discussed the role UNMIS can play in helping South Sudan negotiate its path to independence, the measures needed to ensure a peaceful transition post-independence and the wider impacts of independence in South Sudan for regional security.

You can read his remarks here on "Waging Peace in Independent Southern Sudan: the Way Forward (PDF).

"What Obama Needs to Do to Effectively Engage with Africa"

I'm quoted in Brittany Hutson's Atlanta Post article on President Obama and Africa. Here is the full text of the responses I sent the reporter:

Q: What is the benefit of Obama increasing his engagement with Africa? Why is it important for him to connect with Africa?

A: Africa constitutes 1 billion people living in 53 countries. African countries make up more than one-quarter of the membership of the United Nations and many have voting power in other international forums. Africa is the source for about 20 percent of American oil imports and potentially a significant market for American exports, particularly in view of Africa’s average 5 percent GDP growth rate in recent years. The United States needs the agreement of African countries for military aircraft over flight and landing rights and access to African ports for its naval vessels headed for the Indian Ocean. Finally, African-Americans make up almost 13 percent of the U.S. population. These factors explain why it is important for President Obama or any other U.S. president to connect with Africa.

Q: What are some ways that he can connect with Africa successfully?

A: The United States has a large and long-standing assistance program for Africa that focuses on countering HIV/AIDS, providing humanitarian aid and development assistance through the Millennium Challenge Corporation and USAID. Nearly the entire program consists of grants so that it does not contribute to African debt. Although President Obama has made one visit to Ghana and another to Egypt in connection with Middle East issues, high level visits are one of the most effective ways to connect with Africa. Secretary of State Clinton also made a long visit to Africa in 2010.

The Obama administration could increase the number of high level visits and also extend invitations to more African leaders to visit Washington. U.S. exports to Africa are not significant and investment has tapered off in recent years. It is important that the U.S. private sector and the government make a greater effort to increase two-way U.S. trade with Africa and give added impetus to U.S. investment in Africa. The U.S. media could also do a better job of covering developments in Africa, especially positive ones. Famines, civil wars and natural disasters get plenty of attention; most other developments do not.

Q: What should he be cautious of or try to avoid as he attempts to connect with Africa?

A: While it is important that the United States give priority to those African countries that are working hard to democratize and improve human rights, the United States should not give the impression that it is preaching to governments whose reputations on these issues are less than what the international community expects. It is better to lead by example than the bully pulpit. The United States should also become a better listener in its interaction with African countries. To its credit, the Obama administration’s Africa policy seems to have learned the negative lessons of an obsessively zealous approach to the global war on terror in parts of Africa.

Intervention in Somalia

In August, the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa released a study titled "Somalia: The Intervention Dilemma" (PDF) on the challenges facing international intervention in Somalia.

Written by Jakkie Cilliers, Henri Boshoff and Festus B. Aboagye, it examines African Union force levels. It questions the African Union's interventionist strategy in Somalia, including the planned troop surge, and analyzes the terrorist dimension of the recent bombings, drawing parallels with Afghanistan as a basis for a holistic approach to the conflict in Somalia.

It concludes that the African Union mandate should be transferred to the United Nations.

Quote in AP story "Africa Readies Troops for Somalia"

I'm quoted in an AP story by Max Delany and Malkhadir Muhumed:

Some analysts, though, said that simply sending in more troops was unlikely to solve the problem.

"The current situation in Somalia just does not call for a large peacekeeping operation," said David Shinn, former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia. "AU troops cannot police all of Somalia."

Shinn, a professor at George Washington University and one of the coordinators of U.S. policy in Somalia in the early 1990s, said that the failure of U.S. and U.N. involvement in the country showed large-scale foreign intervention would not work. "That was not the solution then and it will not be now," Shinn said.

You can read the rest of the story here.

Analysis of Sudan’s economic situation

Poverty in Khartoum by Flickr user Vít Hassan, creative commons licensed.

On December 8, 2009, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia released an excellent report by Hassan A. Abdel Ati titled "Sudan and the International Financial Crisis: Effects and Response."

It explains that prior to the global financial crisis the Sudanese economy was one of the fastest growing in the world despite two decades of Western sanctions. Foreign direct investment was also among the highest in Africa. This rapid growth was not, however, broad-based and allowed significant disparities to continue between urban and rural areas and between regions, thus contributing to growing inequalities, increased rural-urban migration and a fast growing urban informal sector.

The international economic crisis created serious problems for Sudan. There was a huge deterioration of the productive sector and a sharp drop in foreign investment. The sharp fall in oil prices led to budgetary instability. In the meantime, Sudan continued to run up high costs for defense and security. The government’s reaction to the crisis was sluggish and disproportionate. The impact was even more severe on southern Sudan, which depends entirely on oil revenue and foreign assistance and largely uses the dollar for its currency.

BBC Focus on Africa asks for analysis of Western relations with Ethiopia

As the election approaches in Ethiopia on 23 May, the BBC Focus on Africa program asked on May 17 for my views on why the United States and Western countries generally consider Ethiopia to be the "darling" of Africa.

While I acknowledged that Ethiopia has cordial relations with most Western countries and has a privileged relationship with the United States, I would not describe it as the "darling." U.S. officials, in their dialogue with Ethiopian officials, regularly express their concern over Ethiopian human rights practices, the slow pace of democratization and even a few economic policies that it finds wanting.

At the same time, the United States must balance these concerns with Ethiopia's success in achieving a respectable GDP growth rate, significantly improving infrastructure and support for United Nations peacekeeping operations in Africa and cooperation with the United States on counter-terrorism.

Ethiopia is the world’s 12th largest supplier of troops for UN peacekeeping operations. Its policy in Somalia in late 2006 and 2007 generally coincided with U.S. policy towards Somalia at the time. In my view, this policy was misguided, but the fact remains that the United States and Ethiopia worked together in Somalia.

The BBC asked why the United States does not pressure Ethiopia to improve its human rights practices. While it is true that the United States provides a considerable amount of aid to Ethiopia, about 90 percent of it is designed to counter HIV/AIDS or provide emergency food aid. This does not provide political leverage. The United States would make this kind of assistance available irrespective of the government in Addis Ababa.

The interviewer suggested there is a double standard when it comes to assistance to Ethiopia as compared to Kenya. But the United States has not eliminated aid to Kenya. While it may be less on a proportional basis, it still continues. If you move one country further south to Tanzania, you have an aid relationship that underscores U.S. support for a country that is in some ways more positive than the U.S. aid relationship with Ethiopia. Tanzania qualified for a half billion dollar grant from the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). Ethiopia does not even qualify for funding from the MCC.

More concerns about Sudan

Refugees International issued a brief report and list of recommendations on March 25, 2010, titled "Sudan: No Time for Business as Usual" (PDF). It underscores the possibility for conflict in Sudan following national elections in April 2010 and/or the referendum on southern independence in January 2011. The report properly urges the international humanitarian community to make contingency plans now in the event that major conflict breaks out. The organization is especially concerned about the plight of internally displaced persons. Refugees International found during recent discussions with local government officials in Juba, Upper Nile and Southern Kordofan that in the event of conflict with the northern government, southern officials expect the United States will send military protection to southern Sudan. I doubt the United States has made any such promise and would be surprised if U.S. military forces become involved in such a conflict. To the extent possible, it is important to establish now the role of the UN Peacekeeping Force in southern Sudan in the event there is a resumption of north-south conflict. Unrealistic expectations will only contribute to bad policy choices by both northerners and southerners.

Quote in Somaliland Press

The visit of Siilaano to the United States underscores the importance of proceeding on a timely basis with the often-postponed national elections. I appreciate there are some technical issues that need clarification, but the longer the election is delayed, the more concerns Somaliland will raise among its friends outside the country. My comments and the posting of this article do not imply support for any candidate. What is important is moving forward with the democratic process in Somaliland. Image from Somaliland Press.

Interview with Bloomberg

I am interviewed in Jason McLure's article "Meles Unites 52 Nations to Exert Clout at UN Summit." Here are the quotes:

Meles is a serious negotiator, said David Shinn, former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia from 1996-1999 and current adjunct professor of international affairs at George Washington University in Washington. “The guy is very smart, he doesn’t wing this stuff,” Shinn said in an interview. ...Search for African leaders in power long enough who have international credibility and technical knowledge of climate issues and “you come up with a very short list,” Shinn said of Meles last month.

Image: "Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister of Ethiopia and Trevor Manuel, Finance Minister of South Africa answer questions from the media in London, 16 March 2009." From Flickr user London Summit via Creative Commons.

Quotes in IPS story on Somalia

I'm quoted in Zach Rosenberg's and Jim Lobe's IPS story "President Calls for More Aid in U.S. Visit." Here are the quotes:

While some observers here and at the U.N. were increasingly concerned as recently as three months ago that the TFG was on the verge of collapse, they are expressing more confidence that Sharif's government can hold on, even if it lacks the power to decisively defeat the insurgent groups. "It's a waiting game now," said David Shinn, a Horn of Africa expert at George Washington University who served as ambassador to Ethiopia from 1996 to 1999. "Today, I think the TFG has a pretty good chance of outwaiting Al-Shabaab." ...Sporadic cruise-missile attacks by U.S. forces against suspected al Qaeda and Al-Shabaab leaders during Ethiopia's two-year occupation of Somalia are believed to have contributed to sympathy for the rebels and growing anti-U.S. sentiment in the country in part due to the fact that civilians were also killed injured. Reaction to the last month's attack, however, appeared to be more muted, according to Shinn. "There doesn't seem to have been much blowback in Somalia, perhaps because (Nabhan) was a Kenyan from Yemen," noted Shinn, who added that the attack's precision eliminated collateral damage.

The longer Eritrea supports al-Shabaab, the more isolated it will be in the international community

I interviewed with BBC radio's "Focus on Africa" program yesterday. The questions dealt with the expulsion of an Eritrean diplomat by the Kenyan government for "security" reasons the day after Secretary Clinton departed Kenya. The key concern of the United States is Eritrea's continuing support for the extremist al-Shabaab organization that it trying to overthrow the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The United Nations, African Union, Arab League, and the United States all support the TFG. I believe that Eritrea is the only government that supports al-Shabaab, although it does get assistance from jihadis in South Asia and the Middle East. Eritrea has long denied that it supports al-Shabaab, but the Intergovernmental Authority for Development and African Union have declared that it is supporting the extremist organization. The longer Eritrea supports al-Shabaab, the more isolated it will become in the international community.