Amnesty or Prosecution for Al-Shabaab Leaders?

World Politics Review published on 31 August 2017 a commentary titled "Should Somalia Prosecute or Offer Amnesty to Al-Shabaab Leaders Who Surrender?" by Yasin Ahmed Ismail, head of a research and consultancy in Nairobi.

The author argues that Somalia should not give immunity from prosecution to high-level al-Shabaab terrorists who ordered the killing, maiming and torture of Somali nationals. Al-Shabaab's top leaders should be prosecuted under a new anti-terrorism law.

Analysis of Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram

The Columbus, Ohio-based think tank, Center for Policy Analysis and Research, published in March 2015 a policy review titled "Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram" by Abukar Sanei.  It provides a background of al-Shabaab and Boko Haram and policy recommendations for Nigeria and Somalia.

Somalia: Al-Shabaab -- It Will Be a Long War

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 26 June 2014 a solid and detailed analysis titled "Somalia: Al-Shabaab -- It Will Be a Long War."

ICG concluded that al-Shabaab represents a culmination of the long-term shift toward social conservatism in Somalia that is difficult to reverse.  As an insurgent group, al-Shabaab retains core constituencies in many parts of south-central Somalia that are not currently addressed by locally-acceptable governance alternatives.  As an organization, al-Shabaab has demonstrated an aptitude for strategic planning that should not be underestimated.  It remains rooted in its Somali context, is willing to learn and benefit from external influence--notably al-Qaeda--while retaining a strong inclination toward local autonomy. 

The Reinvention of Al-Shabaab

The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington published in February 2014 an analysis titled "The Reinvention of Al-Shabaab: A Strategy of Choice or Necessity?" by Matt Bryden, director of Sahan Research, a think tank located in Nairobi, Kenya. 

In this excellent study, Bryden notes that al-Shabaab's leadership was once relatively heterogeneous, including nationalist and politically pragmatic figures such as Hassan Dahir Aweys and Muktar Robow.  There were differences within al-Shabaab over the value of a relationship with al-Qaeda, the wisdom of attacks on civilians, and the role of foreign fighters in the organization.  Following a purge of the nationalists, what now remains of al-Shabaab is the more extremist fringe: an al-Qaeda franchise in Somalia, imbued with the "takfiri" ethos that legitimizes the killing of other Muslims, and recommitment to the cause of international jihad and the restoration of an Islamic caliphate. 

Somalia and Somaliland: A Negative Analysis of 2013

Pambazuka News published on 8 January 2014 a commentary titled "Somalia and Somaliland: The Year 2013 in Review" by Bashir Goth, a frequent Somali blogger who lives in the United Arab Emirates.

Goth's review of Somalia and Somaliland in 2013 is highly negative with the criticism largely justified.  Unfortunately, very little positive news made it into the analysis.  Goth's basic point that there were too many missed opportunities is still essentially valid. 

Al-Shabaab: Down But Not Out

The George Washington University Homeland Security Policy Institute published on 27 August 2013 a study titled "Somalia's Al-Shabaab: Down But Not Out" by the Navanti Group.

The study concluded: Al-Shabaab once appeared to be one of the most formidable terrorist groups in the world proving capable of governing vast amounts of territory and executing well-orchestrated attacks both inside and outside Somalia.  However, events over the past two years have left the group in a weakened state.  Al-Shabaab's loss of territory and public support, in combination with internal conflict, has greatly reduced the groups capacity since its peak.  This has created hope for the Somali Federal Government and opportunity for interventions by the international community to engage the Somali people and help rebuild the country.  However, despite its setbacks, al-Shabaab still commands territory and fighters, and remains a serious threat capable of destabilizing Somalia and the Horn of Africa, and potentially inspiring attacks globally.

Split in Somalia's Al-Shabaab Organization

Abdi Aynte, a Somali journalist with Al Jazeera English, has published a superb analysis of the growing split in Somalia's al-Shabaab organization. He argues that Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and Muktar Robow have effectively broken with the more radical leadership of al-Shabaab, especially Ahmed Abdi Godane. Sheikh Hassan wants desperately to become president of Somalia and is moving to create an alternative to both al-Shabaab and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Abdi Aynte emphasizes that Somali alliances are constantly shifting and the "self-immolation of al-Shabaab is a step closer to ending one of Somalia's most brutal episodes." Click here to read his analysis.

A number of non-Somali analysts in the Washington area have been arguing for the past two years that the United States should engage the likes of Sheikh Hassan and Robow in dialogue with the goal of bringing them into a Somali coalition government. I have argued against this idea for several reasons. The United States has no business engaging committed anti-Western jihadis such as Hassan and Robow even if they disagree with more radical al-Shabaab leaders. Somalis both in and out of the TFG have been in contact with al-Shabaab dissidents, almost certainly including Sheikh Hassan and Robow. That is their business. If the Somalis can work something out on their own, power to them. There is no place, however, for Americans (or other outsiders) in this discussion. They don't understand how the Somali system works and have no business speaking on behalf of Somalis. Nor is there any evidence that Somalis like Sheikh Hassan and Robow will accept anything less than complete control of the Somali government on their terms, which will certainly not be in the U.S. interest.

Quotes in IPS story on Somalia

I'm quoted in Zach Rosenberg's and Jim Lobe's IPS story "President Calls for More Aid in U.S. Visit." Here are the quotes:

While some observers here and at the U.N. were increasingly concerned as recently as three months ago that the TFG was on the verge of collapse, they are expressing more confidence that Sharif's government can hold on, even if it lacks the power to decisively defeat the insurgent groups. "It's a waiting game now," said David Shinn, a Horn of Africa expert at George Washington University who served as ambassador to Ethiopia from 1996 to 1999. "Today, I think the TFG has a pretty good chance of outwaiting Al-Shabaab." ...Sporadic cruise-missile attacks by U.S. forces against suspected al Qaeda and Al-Shabaab leaders during Ethiopia's two-year occupation of Somalia are believed to have contributed to sympathy for the rebels and growing anti-U.S. sentiment in the country in part due to the fact that civilians were also killed injured. Reaction to the last month's attack, however, appeared to be more muted, according to Shinn. "There doesn't seem to have been much blowback in Somalia, perhaps because (Nabhan) was a Kenyan from Yemen," noted Shinn, who added that the attack's precision eliminated collateral damage.