World Politics Review published on 19 August 2014 a good analysis titled "Al-Shabab: A Close Look at East Africa's Deadliest Radicals" by Peter Dorrie, a freelance journalist.
Dorrie concludes that al-Shabaab has emerged from an existential crisis and looks stronger than it has in years. He describes al-Shabaab as the only faction in Somalia's political landscape with a clear and, for the most part, consistent political agenda.
Showing posts with label Ahmed Godane. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ahmed Godane. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Monday, July 7, 2014
The War against Al-Shabaab
International Affairs published in July 2014 an article titled "After Westgate: Opportunities and Challenges in the War against Al-Shabaab" by Paul D. Williams, George Washington University.
Williams concludes that the Somali government must now deliver on its promises to provide the residents of settlements recovered from al-Shabaab with basic services, administration, and protection. For its part, al-Shabaab is entering the beginning of its political end game. With power now consolidated in its extremist fringe, its continued terror tactics are unlikely to win it more supporters within Somalia.
Williams concludes that the Somali government must now deliver on its promises to provide the residents of settlements recovered from al-Shabaab with basic services, administration, and protection. For its part, al-Shabaab is entering the beginning of its political end game. With power now consolidated in its extremist fringe, its continued terror tactics are unlikely to win it more supporters within Somalia.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
Somalia: Al-Shabaab -- It Will Be a Long War
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 26 June 2014 a solid and detailed analysis titled "Somalia: Al-Shabaab -- It Will Be a Long War."
ICG concluded that al-Shabaab represents a culmination of the long-term shift toward social conservatism in Somalia that is difficult to reverse. As an insurgent group, al-Shabaab retains core constituencies in many parts of south-central Somalia that are not currently addressed by locally-acceptable governance alternatives. As an organization, al-Shabaab has demonstrated an aptitude for strategic planning that should not be underestimated. It remains rooted in its Somali context, is willing to learn and benefit from external influence--notably al-Qaeda--while retaining a strong inclination toward local autonomy.
ICG concluded that al-Shabaab represents a culmination of the long-term shift toward social conservatism in Somalia that is difficult to reverse. As an insurgent group, al-Shabaab retains core constituencies in many parts of south-central Somalia that are not currently addressed by locally-acceptable governance alternatives. As an organization, al-Shabaab has demonstrated an aptitude for strategic planning that should not be underestimated. It remains rooted in its Somali context, is willing to learn and benefit from external influence--notably al-Qaeda--while retaining a strong inclination toward local autonomy.
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
Are Corruption and Tribalism Dooming the War on Al-Shabaab?
The Jamestown Terrorism Monitor published an analysis on 21 February 2014 titled "Are Corruption and Tribalism Dooming Somalia's War on al-Shabaab Extremists?" by Andrew McGregor, senior editor of Global Terrorism Analysis. The analysis argues that Somalia's leaders may pose a greater obstacle to Somalia's successful reconstruction than the al-Qaeda-associated al-Shabaab organization.
Monday, February 24, 2014
Two Articles about Al-Shabaab
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point published in February 2014 a special issue of CTC Sentinel that includes two articles on al-Shabaab.
The first article is titled "Al-Shabaab's Capabilities Post-Westgate" by Ken Menkhaus, professor of political science at Davidson College. He concludes that al-Shabaab today is both weaker and more dangerous and unconstrained than in the past. In the short term, this is bad news for Kenya, Ethiopia, the Somali government and people, and international actors operating in Somalia. In the longer term, however, al-Shabaab's downward trajectory since 2009 shows few signs of reversal, at least inside Somalia. Additional losses of top leaders could lead to a quick unraveling of the group, at which point the chief security threat will be the residual Amniyat network, which will retain the capacity for extortion and political violence.
The second article is titled "An In-Depth Look at Al-Shabaab's Internal Divisions" by Stig Jarle Hansen, associate professor at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences. He concludes that al-Shabaab will likely continue to attack countries that have deployed forces in Somalia. Al-Shabaab's biggest danger to the West is most likely through potential logistics support for other al-Qaeda units, its indoctrination of Somalis into al-Qaeda's ideology, and its growing reach in African countries.
The first article is titled "Al-Shabaab's Capabilities Post-Westgate" by Ken Menkhaus, professor of political science at Davidson College. He concludes that al-Shabaab today is both weaker and more dangerous and unconstrained than in the past. In the short term, this is bad news for Kenya, Ethiopia, the Somali government and people, and international actors operating in Somalia. In the longer term, however, al-Shabaab's downward trajectory since 2009 shows few signs of reversal, at least inside Somalia. Additional losses of top leaders could lead to a quick unraveling of the group, at which point the chief security threat will be the residual Amniyat network, which will retain the capacity for extortion and political violence.
The second article is titled "An In-Depth Look at Al-Shabaab's Internal Divisions" by Stig Jarle Hansen, associate professor at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences. He concludes that al-Shabaab will likely continue to attack countries that have deployed forces in Somalia. Al-Shabaab's biggest danger to the West is most likely through potential logistics support for other al-Qaeda units, its indoctrination of Somalis into al-Qaeda's ideology, and its growing reach in African countries.
Friday, February 21, 2014
The Reinvention of Al-Shabaab
The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington published in February 2014 an analysis titled "The Reinvention of Al-Shabaab: A Strategy of Choice or Necessity?" by Matt Bryden, director of Sahan Research, a think tank located in Nairobi, Kenya.
In this excellent study, Bryden notes that al-Shabaab's leadership was once relatively heterogeneous, including nationalist and politically pragmatic figures such as Hassan Dahir Aweys and Muktar Robow. There were differences within al-Shabaab over the value of a relationship with al-Qaeda, the wisdom of attacks on civilians, and the role of foreign fighters in the organization. Following a purge of the nationalists, what now remains of al-Shabaab is the more extremist fringe: an al-Qaeda franchise in Somalia, imbued with the "takfiri" ethos that legitimizes the killing of other Muslims, and recommitment to the cause of international jihad and the restoration of an Islamic caliphate.
In this excellent study, Bryden notes that al-Shabaab's leadership was once relatively heterogeneous, including nationalist and politically pragmatic figures such as Hassan Dahir Aweys and Muktar Robow. There were differences within al-Shabaab over the value of a relationship with al-Qaeda, the wisdom of attacks on civilians, and the role of foreign fighters in the organization. Following a purge of the nationalists, what now remains of al-Shabaab is the more extremist fringe: an al-Qaeda franchise in Somalia, imbued with the "takfiri" ethos that legitimizes the killing of other Muslims, and recommitment to the cause of international jihad and the restoration of an Islamic caliphate.
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Al-Shabaab's Relative Strength Is the Real Threat
The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria published on 4 November 2013 a commentary titled "Al-Shabaab's Relative Strength Is the Real Threat" by Andrews Atta-Asamoah, senior researcher at ISS.
The author concluded that "Al-Shabaab may be weak in comparison with the capacity it had in the past, but it is not weak in relation to the frail Somali government and the huge internal vulnerabilities of countries like Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda."
While I agree with the above assessment, I think Atta-Asamoah is wildly optimistic about the utility of opening a dialogue with the "nationalist elements" of al-Shabaab. By his own account, al-Shabaab has been captured by the extremist elements of the organization led by Ahmed Godane. Al-Shabaab is not interested in dialogue and there is no one to dialogue with in any event.
The author concluded that "Al-Shabaab may be weak in comparison with the capacity it had in the past, but it is not weak in relation to the frail Somali government and the huge internal vulnerabilities of countries like Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda."
While I agree with the above assessment, I think Atta-Asamoah is wildly optimistic about the utility of opening a dialogue with the "nationalist elements" of al-Shabaab. By his own account, al-Shabaab has been captured by the extremist elements of the organization led by Ahmed Godane. Al-Shabaab is not interested in dialogue and there is no one to dialogue with in any event.
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Two Analyses of Al-Shabaab after Westgate
Foreign Policy in Focus ran on 22 October 2013 an analysis of al-Shabaab after the Westgate Mall attack titled "Al-Shabaab's Savage Coming of Age (and How to Respond)" by Francis Njubi Nesbitt, an associate professor at San Diego State University. He concluded that the massacre "represents al-Shabaab's savage coming of age as an international terrorist organization. Kenya and its allies must respond by strengthening regional security operations, reaching out to moderates, and cutting off the group's sources of funds."
Inter Press Service in an article on 22 October 2013 titled "'Civil War' Breaks Out within Al-Shabaab" by Muhyadin Ahmed Roble quotes a political science professor at Kenyatta University that al-Shabaab "is now disintegrating like a house of cards because of internal divisions and power struggles within its leadership."
Inter Press Service in an article on 22 October 2013 titled "'Civil War' Breaks Out within Al-Shabaab" by Muhyadin Ahmed Roble quotes a political science professor at Kenyatta University that al-Shabaab "is now disintegrating like a house of cards because of internal divisions and power struggles within its leadership."
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Al-Shabaab: Down But Not Out
The George Washington University Homeland Security Policy Institute published on 27 August 2013 a study titled "Somalia's Al-Shabaab: Down But Not Out" by the Navanti Group.
The study concluded: Al-Shabaab once appeared to be one of the most formidable terrorist groups in the world proving capable of governing vast amounts of territory and executing well-orchestrated attacks both inside and outside Somalia. However, events over the past two years have left the group in a weakened state. Al-Shabaab's loss of territory and public support, in combination with internal conflict, has greatly reduced the groups capacity since its peak. This has created hope for the Somali Federal Government and opportunity for interventions by the international community to engage the Somali people and help rebuild the country. However, despite its setbacks, al-Shabaab still commands territory and fighters, and remains a serious threat capable of destabilizing Somalia and the Horn of Africa, and potentially inspiring attacks globally.
The study concluded: Al-Shabaab once appeared to be one of the most formidable terrorist groups in the world proving capable of governing vast amounts of territory and executing well-orchestrated attacks both inside and outside Somalia. However, events over the past two years have left the group in a weakened state. Al-Shabaab's loss of territory and public support, in combination with internal conflict, has greatly reduced the groups capacity since its peak. This has created hope for the Somali Federal Government and opportunity for interventions by the international community to engage the Somali people and help rebuild the country. However, despite its setbacks, al-Shabaab still commands territory and fighters, and remains a serious threat capable of destabilizing Somalia and the Horn of Africa, and potentially inspiring attacks globally.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
