Al-Shabaab: Down But Not Out

The George Washington University Homeland Security Policy Institute published on 27 August 2013 a study titled "Somalia's Al-Shabaab: Down But Not Out" by the Navanti Group.

The study concluded: Al-Shabaab once appeared to be one of the most formidable terrorist groups in the world proving capable of governing vast amounts of territory and executing well-orchestrated attacks both inside and outside Somalia.  However, events over the past two years have left the group in a weakened state.  Al-Shabaab's loss of territory and public support, in combination with internal conflict, has greatly reduced the groups capacity since its peak.  This has created hope for the Somali Federal Government and opportunity for interventions by the international community to engage the Somali people and help rebuild the country.  However, despite its setbacks, al-Shabaab still commands territory and fighters, and remains a serious threat capable of destabilizing Somalia and the Horn of Africa, and potentially inspiring attacks globally.

Attempt on Life of American Jihadi in Somalia

Omar Hammami, a.k.a. Abu Mansoor Al-Amriki/Wikipedia

American jihadi Omar Hammami, who left Daphne, Alabama, years ago and eventually joined al-Shabaab said on 26 April 2013 that he was the subject of an assassination attempt at a tea shop somewhere in Somalia after falling out with al-Shabaab.  Associated Press journalist Jason Straziuso reported the story in an article titled "American Jihadi in Somalia Tweets on Kill Attempt." 

Al-Shabaab Strategy following Military Setbacks

The 27 March 2013 edition of the CTC Sentinel has a good update titled "Al-Shabab's Tactical and Media Strategies in the Wake of Its Battlefield Setbacks."  It is written by Christopher Anzalone, a PhD candidate in the Institute of Islamic Studies at McGill University.

The article assesses the trajectory of al-Shabaab's military and political strategies, explains how defections have weakened the group, and reviews its information and media operations during the past two years following significant territorial losses.

Al-Shabaab's Western Media Strategy

The International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR) based at King's College London published in November 2012 a detailed report on how al-Shabaab markets itself to Muslims outside Somalia. The report discusses the recruitment by al-Shabaab of foreign fighters in the West, including some 200 to 300 non-Somalis. The authors of the report are Alexander Meleagrou-Hitchens, Shiraz Maher and James Sheehan.

Click here to read the report.

Al Shabaab: Omar Hammami and Holsworthy Barracks Plot

The June 2012 issue of the CTC Sentinel has two articles dealing with al-Shabaab.

The first by Christopher Anzalone, a PhD candidate at the Institute of Islamic Studies at McGill University, looks at the case of American jihadi Omar Hammami, who grew up in Daphne, Alabama. The article examines Hammami's career in al-Shabaab, paying particular attention to his position in the organization and his strategic writings under the pen name, Abu Jihad al-Shami. Drawing from Hammami's writings, including his autobiography, the article seeks to provide a detailed analytical profile of one of the most famous and prolific western jihadist foreign fighters.

The author concludes that Hammami's radicalization was not solely the result of his attraction to the battlefield in Somalia. Rather, he sought to gain an audience that was much larger than simply members, supporters, and sympathizers of a single militant movement. His goal was to produce written material integral to the success of jihadists globally in the war of ideas.

The second article by Andrew Zammit, a researcher at the Global Terrorism Centre, Monash University, analyzes the August 2009 plot to attack the Holsworthy Army Barracks in Sydney, Australia. Five men were charged and three convicted of planning the attack on the barracks. All three were affiliated with al-Shabaab but only one, Saney Aweys, was from the Somali diaspora. The author concluded that the three plotted independently of al-Shabaab, which did not instigate or direct the attack.

Click here to read both articles.

American Al-Shabaab Terrorist Omar Hammami

The Homeland Security Policy Institute (HSPI) at George Washington University published an analysis of American terrorist and al-Shabaab commander Omar Hammami, also known as Abu Mansur al-Amriki, on 19 March 2012. Written by Clint Watts, senior fellow at HSPI, and Andrew Lebovich, senior analyst at Navanti Group, it is titled Hammami's Plight Amidst Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda's Game of Thrones.

The analysis points out that Hammami may be caught between factions in al-Shabaab that want closer ties to al-Qaeda and those who want more distance from al-Qaeda. Hammami, who is not Somali and grew up in Alabama, seems to have attached himself to the faction that favors closer relations with al-Qaeda. The analysis properly downplays the importance of Hammami to the future of al-Shabaab.