The CTC Sentinel published in July 2019 an article titled "East Africa's Terrorist Triple Helix: The Dusit Hotel Attack and the Historical Evolution of the Jihadi Threat" by Matt Bryden and Premdeep Bahra, both with the Sahan think tank in Nairobi.
The authors point out that the attack on 15 January 2019 of an office complex in Nairobi, Kenya, by al-Shabaab that killed 21 people and injured at least 28 involved Kenyan nationals of non-Somali descent. They conclude that al-Shabaab's longstanding ambition to transcend its Somali origins and become a truly regional organization is becoming a reality, representing a new and dangerous phase in the group's evolution and the threat that it poses to the region.
Showing posts with label al-Higra. Show all posts
Showing posts with label al-Higra. Show all posts
Thursday, July 18, 2019
Monday, February 24, 2014
Two Articles about Al-Shabaab
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point published in February 2014 a special issue of CTC Sentinel that includes two articles on al-Shabaab.
The first article is titled "Al-Shabaab's Capabilities Post-Westgate" by Ken Menkhaus, professor of political science at Davidson College. He concludes that al-Shabaab today is both weaker and more dangerous and unconstrained than in the past. In the short term, this is bad news for Kenya, Ethiopia, the Somali government and people, and international actors operating in Somalia. In the longer term, however, al-Shabaab's downward trajectory since 2009 shows few signs of reversal, at least inside Somalia. Additional losses of top leaders could lead to a quick unraveling of the group, at which point the chief security threat will be the residual Amniyat network, which will retain the capacity for extortion and political violence.
The second article is titled "An In-Depth Look at Al-Shabaab's Internal Divisions" by Stig Jarle Hansen, associate professor at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences. He concludes that al-Shabaab will likely continue to attack countries that have deployed forces in Somalia. Al-Shabaab's biggest danger to the West is most likely through potential logistics support for other al-Qaeda units, its indoctrination of Somalis into al-Qaeda's ideology, and its growing reach in African countries.
The first article is titled "Al-Shabaab's Capabilities Post-Westgate" by Ken Menkhaus, professor of political science at Davidson College. He concludes that al-Shabaab today is both weaker and more dangerous and unconstrained than in the past. In the short term, this is bad news for Kenya, Ethiopia, the Somali government and people, and international actors operating in Somalia. In the longer term, however, al-Shabaab's downward trajectory since 2009 shows few signs of reversal, at least inside Somalia. Additional losses of top leaders could lead to a quick unraveling of the group, at which point the chief security threat will be the residual Amniyat network, which will retain the capacity for extortion and political violence.
The second article is titled "An In-Depth Look at Al-Shabaab's Internal Divisions" by Stig Jarle Hansen, associate professor at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences. He concludes that al-Shabaab will likely continue to attack countries that have deployed forces in Somalia. Al-Shabaab's biggest danger to the West is most likely through potential logistics support for other al-Qaeda units, its indoctrination of Somalis into al-Qaeda's ideology, and its growing reach in African countries.
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Al-Shabaab in the Aftermath of the Attack on Nairobi's Westgate Mall
The web site eInternationalRelations asked me to write a brief analysis of the situation in East Africa following the al-Shabaab attack on Westgate Mall in Kenya. It appeared on 10 October 2013 under the title "Al-Shabaab in the Aftermath of the Attack on Nairobi's Westgate Mall."
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